After 27 rounds, the eight finalists have been locked in and there is nows what appears to be the most open premiership in years. Injuries, ladder position and some questionable form have ensured the playoffs begin without a clear favourite and with most teams given some hope of lifting the Provan-Summons Trophy on the first Sunday in October.
Canberra Raiders
The minor premiers enter the finals as healthy as any with only winger Xavier Savage missing and doubts hanging over Josh Papalii for Sunday’s clash with Brisbane. It is history, inexperience and the weight of expectation that will sit heavily on Ricky Stuart’s young team. The Raiders claimed their first minor premiership since 1990 and have posted just their third top-four finish of the last 20 years. Only six Raiders remain from the 2019 team that last made the top-four – and went on to play in the decider. A bigger and more tangible concern though should be the club’s defence that ranks sixth at 21.08 points per game – 19 of the last 21 premiers have ranked in the top three defensively and have generally conceded a try per game less. While most of the starters were rested in the final round 62-24 loss to the Dolphins, the fact remains no team has conceded 50 and gone on to win the premiership. If the Raiders are to defy history, it will be on the back of a youthful exuberance led by Ethan Strange and Kaeo Weekes, and a remarkable team culture that Ricky Stuart has fostered.
Melbourne Storm
The Storm’s finals chances suffered a devastating blow last week when star halfback and reigning Dally M medal winner Jahrome Hughes fractured his forearm, likely ruling him out for the rest of the year in what was a star-crossed season for the Storm No 7. Their short-term hopes of getting through next week and hosting a preliminary final in Melbourne weren’t helped by Ryan Papenhuyzen being ruled out after failing his HIA and the oft-suspended Nelson Asofa-Solomona facing another stint on the sidelines. Harry Grant returns from suspension but the lack of cohesion within the Storm spine has hampered them all season and will do them no favours in the finals. Owning the second best defence and having so much finals experience will be a huge advantage but conceding 70 points in two losses across the last two weeks will rightly have Craig Bellamy concerned.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
The fall of the Bulldogs this season has been somewhat remarkable and given both the inept performance and bewildering coaching in the loss to Cronulla on Saturday night, Canterbury enter the finals as unsettled and as out-of-form as any side in the top-eight. While the signing of Lachlan Galvin will be beneficial for the club going forward, it certainly unsettled a side that was flying high. That decision was then exacerbated by the call to marry it with demoting hooker Reed Mahoney to play utility Bailey Hayward as the primary No 9. Cameron Ciraldo made the curious – and ultimately costly – decision to not rest his starters in the meaningless clash with the Sharks and now Bronson Xerri is out of the first final against the Storm while Marcelo Montoya is in doubt. Canterbury have the best defensive record and that means plenty but two wins in their last six, a worrying injury toll and so much uncertainty has the Bulldogs’ premiership dreams fading.
Brisbane Broncos
First-year Broncos coach Michael Maguire received widespread criticism from some quarters for his old school techniques but there is no doubt that in terms of form and fitness Brisbane enter September as well-placed as any team. While Ezra Mam, Adam Reynolds, Selwyn Cobbo and Xavier Willison remain sidelined, all four are surprising chances to make finals returns, particularly if the Broncos make a deep run. Whether the Broncos recall Gehamat Shibasaki after breaking team rules remains to be seen. Since a diabolical loss to Manly in round 14, Brisbane have won 10 of 12 and had a fair excuse in their loss to Melbourne when losing both halves on one play. Their seventh-ranked defence is not the profile of a premiership winner but they have the top attack, enter in hot form, will get a home final and have the cavalry lining up to return.
Cronulla Sharks
Cronulla’s form across the entire season has been patchy and combined with their failure to make the top four and a recent history of finals flops the Sharks face a difficult road to their second premiership. Cronulla have made the finals in all four seasons under Craig Fitzgibbon but a 1-5 finals record has seen strong season after strong season end in disappointment. There is also no doubt that the Sharks have entered the playoffs in better form than they are in now despite seven wins in their final eight games. Cronulla can’t help the soft draw they finished the year with, but some of their showings against teams who missed the eight did not suggest the team held strong premiership credentials. The Sharks also managed to keep the same spine for the first 23 rounds – but now face an elimination match without their Dally M- winning No 7.
New Zealand Warriors
The Warriors pushed to the top of the table over the course of the first half of the season on the back of some sublime play from halfback Luke Metcalf but they have been unable to match that in the second half after the star playmaker went down with an ACL. The Warriors finished the regular season with just four wins from their final 11 matches, beating the bottom three teams on the ladder and the Wests Tigers. Their last win against a top-eight team was against Cronulla in round 14 – one of just three wins against finalists this year. Losing Origin prop and tone-setter Mitch Barnett has been nearly as damaging. Landing four-time defending premiers Penrith in an elimination final leaves the Warriors as the team least likely to make a title push.
Penrith Panthers
The last team to win the premiership from outside the top four was Canterbury back in 1995 but if any team has the capability of achieving the near-impossible it is the all-conquering Panthers. Ivan Cleary has clearly made his peace with finishing in the bottom half of the finals, resting the entire team two weeks out to make one last push for a fifth straight title. Three straight losses to top-four teams in the final month of the season will only create a modicum of concern for Cleary, who will be most pleased with having a team that is generally fit and fresh. Fullback Dylan Edwards has seen his form and confidence drop over the last two months of the regular season but with so much finals experience, Nathan Cleary running the show and a pack as fearsome as any, the Panthers are very much in the title mix.
Sydney Roosters
Few eighth-placed teams enter the finals with the confidence the Sydney Roosters will as they look to replicate Parramatta’s famous run in 2009 when they reached the grand final from eighth spot. A young team, the Roosters have a stumble in them – see their poor loss to Parramatta in round 25 – but at their pomp are as dynamic, brilliant and innovative as any team remaining. Trent Robinson’s team scored 30 or more points 11 times this season including four times in the final five rounds. Not only did Mark Nawaqanitawase top the tryscoring tally in his first season but Daniel Tupou finished in a tie for third. James Tedesco looks destined to win his second Dally M medal. Sam Walker played just eight games but posted 15 try assists. The Roosters’ season sits on Walker’s shoulders and the mountain they face is steep but they have too much upside to mark them as also-rans.
