It was in the 1980s when left-handed-hitting Clint Hurdle cleverly used a cinematic reference to describe his hitting struggles with the New York Mets. Channeling the 1971 Academy Award nominee The Summer of ’42, Hurdle titled his season, The Summer of 43, as in four-to-three, as in a plethora of pull-side grounders to the second baseman—or four-to-three if you’re scoring at home.
The reboot of The Summer of 43 is being produced and directed by Kyle Tucker of the Chicago Cubs, who is going so bad that manager Craig Counsell opted not to play him in either game of a doubleheader against first-place Milwaukee Tuesday. Counsell called it a mental “reset.” That’s a statement of how far Tucker has fallen.
Tucker fell into a 38-game stretch in which he hit .189 with just four extra-base hits (including one home run) and 26 pull-side groundball outs, one of the worst kinds of hitting plights a player can suffer. The strain showed Monday night. Tucker slammed his bat on the ground, threw his helmet and once could not be bothered to run out a grounder to first base that hugged the line. The Wrigley Field fans let him know they noticed and serenaded him with boos.
For a breakdown of what’s gone wrong, check the video below.
The slump should not affect Tucker’s upcoming free agency—unless in the unlikely event he continues to tank down the stretch. The free agency of Bryce Harper, for instance, was hurt by his 1.7 WAR platform season in 2018, when too many teams put too much stock in defensive metrics that were unkind to him.
The body of work for Tucker, 28, is long and impressive because he does so many things well: he hits for power and average, steals bases often while rarely getting thrown out and plays elite outfield defense. Over the past five years only six players have accumulated more WAR (25.1): Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez, Marcus Semien and Mookie Betts. That’s an elite player.
As a hitter, he is nearly an exact replica of Corey Seager:
Seager is playing under a 10-year, $325 million contract he signed after his age 27 season. Tucker should have little trouble exceeding that average annual value, based on market inflation, defense and baserunning. (Seager posted a 14 WAR in his five-season runup to free agency.)
Tucker has grown into a more dangerous hitter by learning to hit the ball in the air to the pull side, a method that began years ago when he abandoned his closed stance and stride to get more hip turn and get through the baseball.
Since July 1, Tucker has lost that ability. Meanwhile, he is not using the opposite field, he often gets out front of spin and off-speed and he has lost bat speed, which all adds up to more easy outs. Here is what a two-month slump looks like:
*Pulled groundball outs as percentage of balls in play
Here are his hit spray charts from those splits. Take note on the right of the virtual “hit deserts” that have popped up in his game: the left field power alley and the pull-side home run.
Counsell clearly saw a lack of confidence and abundance of frustration in Tucker. It’s not just mental. There are also underlying mechanical flaws causing his loss of pull-side power. As the video above shows:
1. He has a steeper attack angle with his barrel to the baseball.
2. Counsell mentioned that Tucker is not “connected” in his swing. You can see that in the way his hands work farther from his core on his swing path, which creates length and less bat speed.
3. He is more upright at contact instead of a tighter “tucked” position.
4. His top hand/wrist is more likely to roll over, creating less extension and a lower finish.
Now it’s time for both a mental and mechanical “reset” for Tucker to get his confidence back. This is the worst 38-game stretch in any season in Tucker’s career. His OPS in this slump is .560. His previous worst stretch (.649) ended on Aug. 3, 2022, when he led off the second inning with the Astros up 2-0 by dropping a bunt single against Rich Hill. It was only the third and last bunt hit of his career.
Don’t expect a bunt to bust the slump this time. When you see Tucker take a fastball into the basket in left-center at Wrigley or loft a secondary pitch into the right field bleachers, or pose with that high two-hand finish, you’ll know he’s back.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Analyzing What’s Causing Kyle Tucker’s Worst-Ever Slump.
