Last Sunday, the Houston Texans could have attempted a field goal with a struggling kicker (Ka’imi Fairbairn) to put away the Chiefs in Kansas City. Or they could have gone for it on 4th-and-3 to ensure a victory. Coach Bill O’Brien chose the latter.
O’Brien’s opting to go for it won the hearts of analytics website Pro Football Focus, who named him his decision as the AWS Decision of the Week. PFF gave Houston a 60% chance of converting, which would give them a 100% chance of winning. If they drilled the 45-yard field goal, they had a 92% chance of winning.
The Texans converted the 4th-and-3 and won the game. What went into O’Brien’s decision? Partially analytics, which helped him guide his decision, amongst other situational factors.
“I think you can use them as a guide, but once you get into the game, you’ve got to understand how the game is being played, everything from where the ball is, what defensive call you expect versus the personnel that you have in the game, what’s the score of the game, how many timeouts,” said O’Brien on Wednesday.
“There’s a lot that goes into it, but I certainly think that analytics, the projects that these guys do for us during the week, can definitely help guide us to make the best decision possible for the team on game day,” O’Brien continued.
Houston’s analytics department — led by Chris Olsen and helped by Russell Joyner — doesn’t make the decisions for the Texans. However, their findings do outlay context for O’Brien and Co., which can play a role in making tough choices.
