Two analysts are warning that President Donald Trump could order military strikes on Mexican soil even without the authorization of counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum, noting that a "lack of permission never stopped the U.S. from carrying out drone strikes in the Middle East."
In an article published on Politico, Eric Bazail-Eimil and Jack Detsch also noted that U.S. authorities didn't tell Mexican counterparts about the arrests of drug lords Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and Joaquin Guzman Lopez until they were in custody.
The analysts added that the Trump administration has "considerable leverage" over Mexico, which could lead the Claudia Sheinbaum administration to "rethink her current opposition," including tariffs or other economic reprisals, which could be "more politically damaging" for the president than U.S. strikes.
However, complications for the strike wouldn't lie on Mexico's opposition to them, but rather a lack of intelligence and logistical support. Moreover, the fallout could severely harm bilateral relations, the attack ending up doing more harm than good.
Trump officials have hinted at escalating attacks against cartels, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claiming that forces are "observing" criminal organizations.
Speaking to Fox News' Laura Ingraham, Hegseth said fighting criminal organizations is a priority for the Trump administration. "We are observing them. We know a bit more about them than what they think. We've spent a long time watching them," he added.
Hegseth went on to say that cartels will be targeted based on Trump's orders, but avoided confirming whether sending troops into Mexico is under consideration.
"I can't reveal anything, but that's not what I'm saying," the official claimed when asked directly about a military incursion or a drone attack." "We're not standing with our arms crossed about this anymore."
Sheinbaum has publicly rejected the presence of U.S. troops in the country, saying last week that the possibility was "absolutely ruled out because we have made it clear in every call that such action is neither allowed nor part of any agreement."
Sheinbaum added that had been informed about Trump's executive order, but emphasized that "it had nothing to do with the participation of any military forces in Mexico." She went on to emphasize that any U.S. agencies currently operating in Mexico are under tight restrictions. "I believe we're the country with the most regulation for foreign agents, whether they're from the United States or elsewhere," she said.
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