Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Asharq Al-Awsat
Asharq Al-Awsat
World
Tehran - London - Asharq Al-Awsat

Analysts: Iran's 'Civil War' Warning May Presage Bloodier Crackdown

Fears that Iran is sliding into deeper violence have grown

Iran has accused foreign foes of trying to spark "civil war" by stoking the protests over Mahsa Amini's death -- harsh language that, analysts warn, could presage an even bloodier crackdown.

Fears that Iran is sliding into deeper violence have grown since Wednesday, when assailants on motorcycles gunned down nine people -- including a woman and two boys aged nine and 13 -- in two mysterious attacks.

Officials in Iran were quick to accuse "terrorists" backed by its Western enemies of being behind the attacks in the southern cities of Izeh and Isfahan, which authorities said also left dead two security personnel.

It was the second attack Iran has blamed on what it labels terrorists since the protests erupted, after at least 13 people were killed at a shrine in Shiraz, another city in southern Iran, in an October 26 mass shooting claimed by ISIS.

Analysts say however that, regardless of who carried out the latest attacks, they could result in an even bloodier response to the protests that erupted after Amini's death on September 16, following her arrest for an alleged breach of Iran's dress code for women.

"We don't have a good sense of what happened in Izeh and Isfahan -- was it a terrorist group, or potentially the regime itself?" said Henry Rome, an Iran expert at the Washington Institute.

"Either way, the government will probably use the attacks to send the message that the protests are undermining national security and opening the door for Western-backed terrorism," he told AFP.

"The government is likely attempting to tap into fears that Iran could be on the path to civil war and that stronger action is needed."

Following Wednesday's twin attacks, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abollahian accused Israel and its Western allies of plotting a "civil war" in Iran.

Security services, Israel and Western politicians had "made plans for a civil war and the destruction and disintegration of Iran", he tweeted, adding that they "must know that Iran is not Libya or Sudan".

Fars news agency, which is close to Iran's authorities, said Wednesday's attacks showed "those who want to dismantle the country are aiming to incite a civil war".

At least 342 people, including 43 children and 26 women, have been killed in the crackdown since Amini's death, the Norway-based group Iran Human Rights said Wednesday.

Protesters had been killed in 22 of Iran's 31 provinces, it said, including 123 in Sistan-Baluchistan and 32 in Kurdistan.

The regime's crackdown in the wake of the attack in Izeh, a city in ethnically diverse Khuzestan province, "follows a broader trend line of greater police brutality in historically restive provinces, particularly those with large populations of marginalized ethnic minorities", said Kita Fitzpatrick, an Iran analyst at the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute.

Groups like ISIS "may very well be attempting to capitalize on protests to carry out attacks within Iranian borders," she told AFP.

But, she added, some analysts are observing inconsistencies between recent attacks in Iran and typical ISIS attacks.

"The regime will likely seek to exploit these attacks, regardless, and leverage them to justify cracking down on ongoing unrest."

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.