Nothing like a bit of console sales skirmishing to brighten up a depressing Monday morning. Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter is predicting that the Xbox 360's Natal addon will outsell the PS3's "Arc" motion control camera by 5 to 1.
I think that the Sony motion controller will have some problems gaining traction, since it is not an "in the box" solution. That will probably limit adoption to one or two million at the outset. Natal is different... It's only one piece (the camera), is likely to be cheaper, and I think it will come in the Xbox 360 package with new consoles once launched, meaning far deeper penetration.
Unsurprisingly Pachter thinks the games will be key to the success of both peripherals.
Sony's internal development is top notch, so I expect the launch titles to be fun, and likely on par with Wii Sports for quality, but ultimately, I think that the motion controller will only sell to 20% or less of the PS3 audience, limiting it's appeal to third party publishers. A year or so after launch, there will be 10 million [Project Natal units] out there, which will probably attract more third party support. Also, I think Microsoft will subsidize third party development to make it a success.
What do you think then? Will Natal outsell the Arc? Or, like me, are you waiting to see what launch titles are included before placing your bets?
