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The Street
The Street
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Rob Lenihan

Analyst revamps Shift4 Payments stock outlook after acquisition uncertainty

Jared Isaacman ain't afraid of heights.

The founder and CEO of Shift4 Payments  (FOUR)  has performed in air shows with the Black Diamond Jet Team, set a world record for circumnavigating the globe in a light jet, and was the commander of Inspiration4, a private spaceflight using SpaceX's Crew Dragon Resilience, that launched from Kennedy Space Center in Florida in September 2021.

Isaacman even bought a Super Bowl ad that year to publicize the mission, which was part of a fundraiser for St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, to which Isaacman pledged to donate $100 million.

“I truly want us to live in a world 50 or 100 years from now where people are jumping in their rockets like the Jetsons and there are families bouncing around on the moon with their kid in a spacesuit,” Isaacman told The Associated Press ahead of the mission. 

And Isaacman, who founded the Center Valley, Pa., payment-processing company in 1999 when he was 16 years old, is getting ready to blast off again. 

This mission, known as Polaris Dawn, is scheduled to launch next month after being pushed back about 18 months from the initial target of fourth-quarter 2022.

Shift4 CEO cites 'ongoing strategic review'

"It's a development program with ambitious objectives," Isaacman posted on X on Dec. 9. "Schedule slips should be expected." 

Meanwhile, back on Earth, Shift4 Payments, which went public in 2020, reported fourth-quarter earnings last month.

Related: Analysts revamp Eli Lilly stock price target on weight-loss drugs

The company earned 76 cents a share, compared with the FactSet analyst consensus of 82 cents a share. Revenue totaled $269.3 million, compared with the FactSet consensus of $280.4 billion.

A year earlier the company earned 47 cents a share on $199 million of revenue. 

In a letter to shareholders Isaacman referred briefly to an "ongoing strategic review" and said the board's "formal review of alternatives is still active and ongoing."

"Please know, throughout this process, we have remained focused on running the business, executing on our game plan and ensuring the company is well positioned for the years ahead," he said.

It was around the same time when Shift4 Payments shares surged on a Reuters report that Fiserv  (FISV)  and Amadeus IT Group  (AMADY)  were competing to acquire the company.

Payment processors like Shift4 thrived during the Covid-19 pandemic as customers turned to digital payment methods, Reuters said. But some have since struggled to maintain growth amid increased competition and high inflation.

The stock ran into some turbulence on Monday and started falling after Isaacman reportedly said bids from potential contenders have failed to "sufficiently value" the company.

Analyst: Shift4 shares 'attractive at current levels'

The board determined that none of the "multiple offers" Shift4 received adequately valued the business or the company's future, even though the offers were above the current share price, Bloomberg News reported, citing a memo to the company's staff on Friday.

This may sound dire, but some analysts see a buying opportunity in Shift4’s current situation. 

More Wall Street Analysts:

Benchmark analysts said in a research note that it viewed the news as a buying opportunity. The investment firm's analysts affirmed a buy rating and $99 price target on the shares.

Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette, who reiterated an equal-weight rating and $70 price target on the shares, said the news was “a somewhat unsurprising update.”

If Shift4 stock keeps at least some of its acquisition-news related premium "above the mid-60s range," Faucette said, the company should push to do another convertible offering to replace the existing one coming due in December 2025, which it doesn't have sufficient cash to pay down.

DA Davidson reiterated a buy rating and $96 price target on the stock, telling investors that the shares are “very attractive at current levels.”

BTIG analyst Andrew Harte, who repeated a buy rating and an $85 price target on Shift4 Payments, said the weakness in the stock following the report represented a buying opportunity for investors. 

The investment firm said that it remained positive on the company. It said that Shift4 Payments' growth of net new customers and its strategy could drive 30% fiscal 2024 growth in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

Harte said the shares were trading at a multiple of 11.9 times enterprise value to expected fiscal 2024 Ebitda after the share-price weakness.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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