During the 14-month tenure of the Madhya Pradesh government, ominous signs of Jyotiraditya Scindia’s seething revolt were read accurately, and astutely, by a political party, though on the wrong side of the spectrum — the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Congress, on the other hand, took him for a fusspot, downplayed differences, snubbed detractors, or simply looked the other way.
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If the January 2019 meeting after the Assembly elections, between the BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan, denied the Leader of the Opposition’s post, and Mr. Scindia, denied the Chief Minister’s post, failed to rouse the Congress, at least his support for Article 370’s dilution; the erasure of references to the posts Mr. Scindia has held with the Congress from his Twitter handle (the “former Union Minister, MP of Guna” is now described as “public servant, cricket enthusiast”); his unhappiness with the survey of damage caused by the 2019 floods and claim that poll promises were unkept, pointed to only one direction — an imminent cutting of ties. Still, his undue advice to Chief Minister Kamal Nath to “listen to others” was too sinister to go unnoticed.
Full circle
At the “courtesy meeting” with Mr. Chouhan at his residence, he hinted at burying the hatchet after the election by saying “raat gayi toh baat gayi”. The BJP on the stump, especially in his Gwalior-Chambal stronghold, had mocked his titular title: “Maaf karo Maharaj, hamara neta toh Shivraj (‘Sorry Maharaj, our leader is Shivraj’). On Wednesday, Mr. Chouhan, coming a full circle, stated: “Today Maharaj and Shivraj have become one,” this time, in the presence of Mr. Scindia’s aunt Yashodhara Raje, a BJP MLA, while in New Delhi Mr. Scindia praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership after joining the party.
In 2018, the denial of Chief Minister’s post to him was reminiscent of his father Madhavrao Scindia’s fate in 1989, when a scam forced Arjun Singh to step down, but still he made sure Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi spurned the scion of Gwalior’s erstwhile royal family.
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Second-most popular
Mr. Scindia toured around 100 segments in the run-up to the election and was the second-most popular leader after Mr. Chouhan, the former chief minister who strode ahead by 10%-12% points, according to a CSDS-Lokiniti survey. If during the Lok Sabha election, a BJP candidate secured the mandate to re-elect Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister, the Assembly election brought back Congress that rode on Mr. Scindia’s popularity, with his appointment as Chief Minister as the logical end. Refusing to settle for the Deputy Chief Minister’s post, Mr. Scindia was placated by close friend Rahul Gandhi to accept Mr. Nath instead.
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Ahead of the Lok Sabha election, Mr. Scindia stood alienated and diverted from his bastion, Guna, seeking to guard it a fifth time, after being made All India Congress Committee general secretary in-charge for west Uttar Pradesh. His absence afforded Mr. Nath, who had accommodated six Scindia loyalists in the Cabinet, room to manoeuvre, and stave off easily any possible nitpicking by Mr. Scindia. This cost him the seat, from where the family had won 14 times, foreclosing his only option to retain an official responsibility. Even 11 months later, the humiliation stuck with him. In Shivpuri district in October 2019, he told reporters: “I am hurt by the Lok Sabha results. But I will continue to work for my area.” After the Congress rout, the self-inflicted receding of Mr. Gandhi to the background has almost been coterminous with Mr. Scindia’s loss of prominence within the Congress.
The first clear sign of factional rift between Mr. Scindia and Mr. Nath came rather obliquely in the form of Ministers from both sides squabbling in a Cabinet meeting in June, days after the Congress secured the Chhindwara seat, the Nath family’s base, the only one of the 29 seats in the Lok Sabha election. A Minister close to Mr. Nath interjected Pradyumna Singh Tomar while speaking, symbolising an open cornering of the Scindia faction, prompting the Chief Minister to intervene.
Amplified nationally
Then in August, Mr. Scindia’s dissent amplified nationally, with his backing for diluting Article 370, opposed by the Congress in Parliament. Flirting with the idea of his changing ranks, the BJP in Bhind put up a poster congratulating him for supporting the Centre’s decision, positioning Mr. Scindia, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Mr. Modi in the same frame. Still, to the Congress, the episode seemed too trivial to take notice. Leader of the Opposition Gopal Bhargava even called upon him to quit the party.
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Although Mr. Scindia had publicly nursed the idea to be the Chief Minister, later he too often said he never ran after post or power. Yet, his supporters relentlessly and openly vouched to make him the Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) chief, another portfolio with Mr. Nath, to secure a Rajya Sabha ticket for him, and pledged allegiance even if he abandoned the party.
Several signs
While in August, a loyalist threatened to quit the party along with 500 workers if Mr. Scindia was kept at bay from the State’s politics and not made PCC chief, in November an MLA stated he would be the first to quit the party if Mr. Scindia did, in January this year an MLA sat on dharna in the Assembly claiming poll promises were not kept, and another leader in February implored him to revive his father’s defunct party. During each of these episodes, Congress spokespersons told The Hindu infighting within the party was a spectre conjured up by the BJP to stoke anxiety and divert attention from governance.
The only time the Congress’s central leadership took notice was when Forest Minister Umang Singhar wrote to Sonia Gandhi, alleging Digivijaya Singh was attempting to destabilise government and interfering in it. While Mr. Scindia backed the Minister, Mr. Nath said only he was in-charge of the government, denying the charge, further alienating Mr. Scindia. Sonia Gandhi had later sought a report, but no disciplinary action was taken.
BJP’s estranged ally
The BJP noticed an ally in him, estranged from his own party, for the first time in October when Mr. Scindia claimed farm loan waiver, a poll promise that former party chief Rahul Gandhi had said would be kept within ten days of coming to power, was not fulfilled even in October. Mr. Chouhan then conveniently trained guns on Mr. Nath telling him “your own people are showing you the mirror”. Mr. Nath has since persistently tried to defend the fulfilment of the promise that fetched the Congress crucial votes of OBCs (Other Backward Class) who make up over half the State’s population, but it never struck a chord with the electorate.
But things turned ugly this February, when Mr. Scindia, three months after erasing references to his positions in the Congress on his Twitter handle, threatened to hit the streets if poll promises remained unkept, a challenge Mr. Nath did not savour, and said: “toh utar jaaye” (‘so let him descend’). Later, the eerie connection between Mr. Scindia and Mr. Chouhan was unwittingly admitted by the Chief Minister himself, when he said : “How could I be angry with him when I couldn’t be with Mr. Chouhan,” proverbially pointing to the crisis the Congress government has plunged itself into now, capped with the exit of Mr. Scindia from the party after 18 years.
