It is hardly a secret that the Conservatives are unpopular. Ipsos polling for this paper shows eight in 10 Britons dissatisfied with how the Government is running the country.
But what of the party that might replace them? On the one hand, the public believes Labour have the best policies on the issues that matter most to them: the cost of living and the NHS. On the other, they often struggle to articulate what those policies are.
Some 58 per cent think Labour have said too little about what they might do in office. This sentiment is seen in perceptions of Sir Keir Starmer, too. Half the public tell us they don’t know what he stands for, including a third of Labour voters. This is back to levels seen a year ago, having fallen to 44 per cent overall in January.
Perceptions of Starmer are important because the public don’t know much about who will govern with him. The only member of the shadow cabinet who more than one in 10 Britons can name is his deputy Angela Rayner.
Starmer has had clear success in moving the party close to government. Yet there is some evidence he hasn’t quite sealed the deal with the public himself. His leader satisfaction ratings tend to be better than his predecessors, but they are not quite at the levels of Tony Blair and David Cameron before they won from opposition.
The public also remain split on whether they prefer him as prime minister to Rishi Sunak and divided on whether he is ready for the top job.
Does any of this matter? Perhaps not. In many ways Starmer’s personal poll ratings are “good enough” and 45 per cent say they don’t know what Sunak stands for either. Perceptions of competence can be as important as individual policies themselves.
Yet Labour cannot be complacent. The closer we get to an election and the more likely a Labour victory looks, the more scrutiny there will be on what comes next.
The public tell us they want change. Starmer will want to show Labour can be that change. If he succeeds, a Labour victory awaits. If not, voter ambivalence could yet make what comes next unpredictable.
