It was wholly unsurprising that George Russell was marked as the bookies' favourite for the 2026 Formula 1 title before the season had even begun, given Mercedes' performances in pre-season testing.
Few could agree on the expected order after that: some combination of Charles Leclerc, Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, and Oscar Piastri lined the second and third places in the pre-season predictions, and some bookmakers had even thrown Fernando Alonso into the mix among the favourites.
Kimi Antonelli, meanwhile, was never really in the conversation. Yet he now stands before us with a nine-point championship lead, with two victories to Russell's one. And sure, Russell has endured misfortune thus far in the opening rounds, but Antonelli's performances suggest that the Italian teen is good value for his early lead.
When Antonelli landed in F1 last year, he was accosted by hype and doubt in equal measure. Mercedes had to walk a tricky tightrope in managing expectations; the Silver Arrows expected its long-time prospect to be a potential championship winner in the future, but maintained its desire to keep the early pressure off. The team wanted to allow Antonelli to grow in F1's spotlight, knowing that the championship has been littered with title-winning diamonds who were never adequately extricated from the rough.
Although Russell remains the favourite, Antonelli has been much closer to him than expected. But just how evenly matched are they, and which driver is faster? Let's take a look - the caveat being that 2026's sample size is not particularly extensive at the moment.
One-lap pace: Russell has a slender edge
As it stands, the two Mercedes drivers are not too far away from each other at all. The easiest way to look at comparable one-lap pace lies in supertimes, in which one takes the fastest lap set by a driver and compares it as a percentage to the outright quickest time.
In Australia, Russell took pole with Antonelli just under 0.3s away, contributing to a 0.373% gap between the two. And, while Antonelli took pole for the Chinese Grand Prix (helped by Russell's mechanical issues during Q3), the sprint qualifying times had been faster. Here, Russell was again clear by a smidgen below 0.3s, this time a 0.313% difference. Antonelli's pole in Japan was by a similar margin, putting him 0.336% clear of his more experienced team-mate.
Overall, Russell's difference to the theoretical best (100%) time stands at 0.112%, while Antonelli is away from the theoretical 100% time by 0.230%. Assuming a best possible lap of a 1m30.000s, Russell would log a 1m30.101s versus Antonelli's 1m30.207s. That's a wafer-thin 0.106s margin, one that can very easily be overcome by a marginally better corner exit or a couple of miles per hour top speed down a straight.
Race pace: Antonelli ahead by less than a tenth per lap
Measuring the outright race pace between the two drivers is made slightly more difficult, as both Mercedes drivers have found themselves within the pack on the opening laps. Iffy starts have been a persistent problem and it appears to be endemic to the team; not even the Mercedes-powered McLaren outfit struggled quite so much off the line in Japan (although it hasn't often got to that point over the course of 2026...).
What we can do is compare race stints where both drivers were in clean air. That rules out much of Japan, since Russell spent most of his afternoon dicing with McLarens and Ferraris, but we can look at the two stints in Australia and China when the two cars had either cleared the rest of the field, or had enough of a gap to be unaffected by the cars in front. From lap 20 in Australia, the VSC periods were out of the way and the Ferraris (yet to pit at this point) were far enough ahead, while this only applies in China once Russell had moved into second on lap 29.
In the case of the period between lap 21 and the end of the race in Australia - after removing laps 33 and 34, which overlapped with a VSC - Antonelli was averaging 1m22.958s times, with Russell running to a 1m23.057s average. Across those laps, Antonelli was 3.543s faster than Russell overall, which equates to about 0.1s of a second per lap.
Antonelli vs Russell, 2026 Australian GP laps between L21 - L58
| Lap | Antonelli | Russell | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 82.781 | 82.67 | 0.111 |
| 22 | 82.862 | 82.892 | -0.03 |
| 23 | 82.582 | 82.828 | -0.246 |
| 24 | 83.222 | 83.466 | -0.244 |
| 25 | 84.545 | 82.879 | 1.666 |
| 26 | 83.138 | 83.093 | 0.045 |
| 27 | 83.103 | 83.188 | -0.085 |
| 28 | 83.03 | 83.39 | -0.36 |
| 29 | 82.968 | 83.486 | -0.518 |
| 30 | 82.889 | 83.272 | -0.383 |
| 31 | 82.88 | 83.147 | -0.267 |
| 32 | 83.239 | 83.54 | -0.301 |
| 35 | 83.292 | 83.017 | 0.275 |
| 36 | 82.865 | 82.729 | 0.136 |
| 37 | 82.966 | 82.839 | 0.127 |
| 38 | 82.989 | 82.863 | 0.126 |
| 39 | 82.921 | 82.738 | 0.183 |
| 40 | 82.672 | 82.915 | -0.243 |
| 41 | 82.928 | 83.073 | -0.145 |
| 42 | 82.942 | 83.054 | -0.112 |
| 43 | 83.015 | 82.893 | 0.122 |
| 44 | 83.079 | 82.856 | 0.223 |
| 45 | 83.123 | 83.477 | -0.354 |
| 46 | 83.038 | 83.751 | -0.713 |
| 47 | 83.066 | 83.033 | 0.033 |
| 48 | 82.992 | 83.034 | -0.042 |
| 49 | 83.245 | 82.844 | 0.401 |
| 50 | 82.903 | 83.087 | -0.184 |
| 51 | 82.625 | 82.762 | -0.137 |
| 52 | 82.558 | 83.106 | -0.548 |
| 53 | 82.613 | 83.069 | -0.456 |
| 54 | 82.842 | 83.1 | -0.258 |
| 55 | 82.928 | 82.67 | 0.258 |
| 56 | 82.603 | 82.757 | -0.154 |
| 57 | 82.417 | 83.188 | -0.771 |
| 58 | 82.653 | 83.351 | -0.698 |
We'll take China from lap 30, the first 'clean' lap with Russell clear of the Ferraris. Let's subtract Antonelli's slip at lap 53, where the nerves of leading had perhaps got the better of him and yielded a Turn 14 lock-up; it is a statistical anomaly, after all.
Antonelli's average lap in this period, sans lap 53, comes to a 1m35.869s; Russell's average is a 1m35.860s. Thus, Russell went just 0.2s faster across the entire 26-lap period, or 0.009s per lap.
Antonelli vs Russell, 2026 Chinese GP laps between L30 - L56
| Lap | Antonelli | Russell | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 96.166 | 96.438 | -0.272 |
| 31 | 96.108 | 96.207 | -0.099 |
| 32 | 95.983 | 95.977 | 0.006 |
| 33 | 96.443 | 96.107 | 0.336 |
| 34 | 96.021 | 95.852 | 0.169 |
| 35 | 96.037 | 96.162 | -0.125 |
| 36 | 96.014 | 95.914 | 0.1 |
| 37 | 96.159 | 95.531 | 0.628 |
| 38 | 95.526 | 95.529 | -0.003 |
| 39 | 95.494 | 95.497 | -0.003 |
| 40 | 96.15 | 95.636 | 0.514 |
| 41 | 95.343 | 95.641 | -0.298 |
| 42 | 95.93 | 96.661 | -0.731 |
| 43 | 95.936 | 95.644 | 0.292 |
| 44 | 95.332 | 95.542 | -0.21 |
| 45 | 95.528 | 95.677 | -0.149 |
| 46 | 95.282 | 96.407 | -1.125 |
| 47 | 95.501 | 95.668 | -0.167 |
| 48 | 95.706 | 96.095 | -0.389 |
| 49 | 95.523 | 95.87 | -0.347 |
| 50 | 95.659 | 95.681 | -0.022 |
| 51 | 96.011 | 95.531 | 0.48 |
| 52 | 95.275 | 95.547 | -0.272 |
| 54 | 96.176 | 96.457 | -0.281 |
| 55 | 96.378 | 95.695 | 0.683 |
| 56 | 96.929 | 95.4 | 1.529 |
With the data we have available, there has been very little between the two drivers in terms of performance across the opening rounds of the championship. Without the benefit of representative simultaneous clean-air laps in Japan, we lose another data point, but suffice it to say that Antonelli had appeared to be stronger overall across the weekend. Russell's set-up changes ahead of qualifying had been detrimental to his W17's handling, something that he had to contend with through the grand prix, and his misfortune was compounded when Antonelli got the benefit of the safety car.
But luck goes both ways and, had Antonelli not bogged down after losing the clutch bite point at the start, it might be reasonable to assume that he'd have got away ahead of his team-mate.
Ultimately, we're looking at a difference between the two drivers of perhaps around a tenth, and this can swing either way given the weekend and the strengths between the two. Yet, Antonelli's abilities around the first three circuits on the calendar hadn't been in doubt; he finished in the top six across all three last year in his debut season.
The real litmus test will emerge once the European season opens for business. Russell has vast experience here, while Antonelli struggled to get dialled in over the summer months thanks to Mercedes' switch to an anti-lift suspension package that removed the then-rookie's comfort with the car.
If Antonelli is to become F1's youngest-ever champion and join tennis star Jannik Sinner in headlining Italy's current wave of young sporting talent, then he's got some demons in Europe to exorcise. Russell, meanwhile, must step up and assert his authority as Mercedes' senior driver if he's to make use of his best opportunity yet. There's almost nothing between them as it stands.
