SEATTLE _ Leading aerospace analysts are being highly critical of Boeing's push to impose steep tariffs on U.S. sales of Bombardier's small CSeries passenger jet, saying the case will damage the long-term interests of both Boeing and the U.S. aerospace industry.
"The free market and free competition are good for us," said Adam Pilarski, a senior vice president with consulting firm Avitas and a leading aviation analyst. "Boeing shouldn't want to move away from that, because to do so will hurt Boeing."
So convinced is Pilarski that this prospect harms U.S. interests, he doesn't believe the 220 percent tariff announced Tuesday ultimately will be imposed on the Canadian plane-maker's jets.
Pilarski anticipates that in the negotiations with Canada over the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement, U.S. trade officials will find a way to settle the case before tariffs are imposed.
"I really don't see it happening," Pilarski said.
The danger for the U.S. is in setting a precedent for rivals to treat American aerospace companies badly, he said.
By pushing the case before the U.S. International Trade Commission _ a forum that's unilateral and therefore clearly biased _ rather than before an international tribunal, Boeing will only encourage countries like China, Russia and Brazil that have big aerospace ambitions and large home markets to do the same to Boeing in the future, he said.
"You are giving your real competitors an excuse to say, if the U.S. can do this, we can do it," Pilarski said.
Richard Aboulafia, a prominent aviation analyst with the Teal Group, agreed, calling this week's ruling "a tactical victory but strategically a disaster" for Boeing.
He said the immediate harm to Boeing is the likely loss of big defense contracts from the two most reliable military allies of the U.S.
The Canadian government has already put on hold a $5.2 billion deal that was all but finalized for Boeing F/A-18 jet fighters and related weapons systems.
The Canadians are known to be interested also in buying P-8 anti-submarine jets and Chinook helicopters from Boeing. For now, those possibilities are off the table, too.
And because the CSeries wings are made in Belfast, Northern Ireland, where 1,000 jobs are threatened, future U.K. defense buys are also at risk.
Aboulafia said the big winner from the Bombardier case may be Boeing's European rival Airbus, which could win airliner orders from Delta Air Lines if the U.S. carrier takes sufficient offense at the U.S. tariff blocking a planned delivery of 75 CSeries jets.
As for Bombardier, while at times it's been looked at askance by some Canadians outside its base in Quebec as a money pit undeserving of more government support, now national pride demands that Canada shore it up.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau can market it personally, pointing potential buyers like the Chinese to clear evidence that it's a great airplane: Boeing is afraid of it.
