Five weeks in, Ukraine’s much-vaunted counter-offensive appears to be stalling.
In a bloody summer of fighting along 1,000 miles of frontline there are fears the West’s plan to foil Putin could be in danger of unravelling.
It is a nasty infantry war, Ukrainians trying to push forward trench by trench, field by field. There has been no major breakthrough.
In a hospital behind the frontline a medic gave us one good reason why. “There are mines everywhere,” he told us.
While the West dithered over how to arm Ukraine, the Russians have been building defences and laying mines. They have devilish new devices like jumping mines that leap up a few feet and eviscerate their victims. And powerful anti-tank mines are stymying the use of Nato-supplied heavy armour.
That is not the end of the problems. The Ukrainians have no air superiority. In the thick of war they are trying to transform their military from a Soviet model to a modern one in line with Nato’s... like rebuilding an aircraft in midflight.
The Russians may have been really bad at offence in this war, but are proving much better at defence.
When the counter-offensive began, the US and its allies envisioned advances decisive enough to force Putin to negotiate. So far that’s been wildly optimistic. Throughout, Western leaders have said Russia cannot prove might is right, and land cannot be taken by force.
So for the West to fail in Ukraine, Russia does not need to win. It just needs to keep most of the territory it has taken, up to a fifth of the country.
Ukraine desperately needs a breakthrough to keep its allies motivated. No sign yet of that... and for Ukraine’s friends in the West that is increasingly worrying.
