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South-East Asia correspondent Mazoe Ford and Supattra Vimonsuknopparat in Bangkok

An uber-rich dynasty has dominated Thai politics for years. Is Paetongtarn Shinawatra ready to rise?

Paetongtarn Shinawatra's Pheu Thai party appears to be poised to win the election by a wide margin.  (ABC News: Mazoe Ford)

As Thailand prepares for its general election next month, one woman is charging ahead in the polls as preferred Prime Minister: Paetongtarn Shinawatra. 

If that surname sounds familiar, that's because the 36-year-old is the third member of the billionaire Shinawatra dynasty to vie for the top job in Thai politics. 

"Ung-Ing", as she is known in Thailand, is the youngest daughter of divisive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the niece of Thaksin's sister, Yingluck, who was also a controversial PM.

Thaksin and Yingluck were deposed and now live in exile to avoid jail, but there are still many Thais who look back fondly on the Thaksin era for its policies to help working-class people. 

That nostalgia appears to be working in Paetongtarn's favour.

The ABC has been to several of her public appearances — a campaign launch, a neighbourhood market visit and a large auditorium rally — and it seems many people are getting behind the idea of a third Shinawatra prime minister.

A recent national poll showed that 38 per cent of people surveyed wanted the political rookie to be the country's next leader.

That's more than twice the number of respondents who supported incumbent prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, who launched a military coup against Paetongtarn's aunt in 2014. 

Paetongtarn has a large social media following, too, with young people not only liking her campaign trail pictures but also lapping up the glimpses into her glamorous life as an heiress to a billionaire's fortune.

The Shinawatra dynasty is beloved by some Thais and reviled by others.  (Instagram: Paetongtarn Shinawatra)

And, even while heavily pregnant with her second child — due around the time of the May 14 election — she has been hitting the hustings almost daily to try to build a bigger following. 

"This time, we are very confident … our party is very strong right now," Paetongtarn told the ABC at a recent rally.

However, Thai politics is complicated, and popularity is no guarantee of anything. 

A dramatic history of coups and courts 

Paetongtarn's party, Pheu Thai — and its previous iterations, Thai Rak Thai and Palang Prachachon — have won every national election for the past 22 years.

However, they have never been able to lead for long.

Military coups, court rulings or manoeuvring by the military-appointed Senate have stopped three Thaksin-backed governments from completing their terms.

The courts also disbanded the parties and banned dozens of senior members from politics for five years. 

In this election, Pheu Thai is aiming to win by a large enough margin to prevent such interference.

"I have a strong hope that we can form the government, for sure," Paetongtarn said.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra is promising minimum wage hikes, utility subsidies and high-speed rail systems. (Reuters: Athit Perawongmetha)

"That's why we promote ourselves and do the campaign about a landslide, because a landslide is going to make us strong enough to form the government.

"I think the people want to see better politics, better solutions for the country, not just coup d'états." 

Not everyone in Thailand is on board with the idea of another Shinawatra prime minister though.

Strong animosity towards the family remains throughout the country.

Thaksin — a wealthy telecommunications tycoon-turned-politician, was adored by his base but despised by urban elites and military conservatives.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra (left) has seen her family removed from power several times.  (Reuters: Sukree Sukplang)

They accused him of corruption, nepotism and a lack of respect for the rule of law. 

He was ousted in a military coup in 2006 and now lives in self-imposed exile in Dubai to avoid a conviction for abuse of power.

Thaksin's sister, Yingluck, made history when she became Thailand's first female prime minister in 2011, but was seen by many as a proxy for her brother.

She was forced to stand down in 2014 after the constitutional court ruled she had also abused her power, then was put on trial the following year over her role in a failed rice subsidy scheme. 

Yingluck fled the country, secretly, in 2017, ahead of the verdict in that trial.

Thaksin, Yingluck and their supporters say all of the above accusations and rulings were baseless, politically motivated and designed to keep them out of politics forever.

A nepo baby or a born politician? 

Former Thai foreign minister and former Democracy Party politician Kasit Piromya opposes a third Shinawatra family member as PM. 

Former Democracy Party politician Kasit Piromya is opposed to political dynasties. (ABC News: Mazoe Ford)

He said family dynasties in politics are "undemocratic", because they put the family above other, often more-qualified, party members.

The only reason Paetongtarn was one of the Pheu Thai party's three prime ministerial candidates, he said, was because she was Thaksin's daughter.

"You cannot run a country or have someone run the country without experience," he said.

"She has never been on the street to rallies, to fight for a cause or a principle. She's never been a bureaucrat. She's never run a business. 

"She will be the proxy of her father. She will not have a mind of her own … Thaksin has a firm grip."  

When asked by the ABC if she had been seeking her father's advice during the campaign, Paetongtarn said: "Of course."

"I am going to consult with him about everything in life. That is how I am, a daddy's girl," she added.

When pressed on what made her qualified to be prime minister, she told the ABC it would be a team effort. 

"What makes me qualified to lead the country is my party, my team. They are qualified to run the country," she said.

Thaksin Shinawatra (left) — who was deposed in a military coup in 2006 — and his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who wants to be Thailand's next prime minister. (Instagram: Paetongtarn Shinawatra)

"We're going to make Thai people richer, more comfortable with our policies."

This week, the incumbent prime minister told local media that Thailand "needs people who know how to do the job". 

"If they have never done it, they can't do it," he said.

However, Chulalongkorn University political science professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak told the ABC that Paetongtarn "had been around politics all her life".

"When Thaksin was prime minister, she hung out with him and accompanied him, and so on. And when he was ousted in the military coup in 2006, she was a student here at the faculty of political science at Chulalongkorn University, finishing up," he said.

Ms Paetongtarn is campaigning hard in rural strongholds, which have long been loyal to her family.  (Instagram: Paetongtarn Shinawatra)

Professor Thitinan remembers Bangkok was so tense at the time, and anti-Thaksin sentiment was so strong that Paetongtarn would come to university each day with bodyguards.

"So she has seen [Thai politics]. She knows what it is about," Professor Thitinan said.

"She has [Thaksin's] kind of political instincts and his appetite for the fray … and she has found traction very quickly, because she's connected with people."

'Most consequential election' for two decades

Even if Paetongtarn's party wins in a landslide on May 14, that does not guarantee she will become prime minister.

Ms Paetongtarn is married and has one young daughter. (Instagram: Paetongtarn Shinawatra)

The PM's position is chosen in the months following the election, through a combined vote of the 500 elected lower house representatives and the 250 members of the military-appointed senate.

Professor Thitinan told the ABC he believed this to be Thailand's "most consequential election", because it will determine the country's direction after a two-decade-long political battle between the Thaksin side and the conservative, pro-military establishment.

"By all indications, the Pheu Thai party is poised to win the election by a sizeable, unassailable margin," Professor Thitinan said.

"But this election is also an indictment on the established centres of power over the last two decades. They've done all kinds of stuff in Thai politics, writing new constitutions, two military takeovers, multiple judicial dissolutions of Thaksin parties. 

"Thaksin was very divisive but, at this time, I think the onus may be more on the Thaksin opponents: Why is it that they can't win the election and win the trust of the Thai people? Why is it that the Thaksin side keeps winning? So there's something there."

Ms Paetongtarn is far ahead in opinion polls.  (Instagram: Paetongtarn Shinawatra)
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