The passage of two crucial election bills may not only clear the way for a general election to take place in February next year as promised by the government, but also offer a glimpse of the next elected government.
There are several crucial elements in these two organic bills on selecting senators and electing MPs, but two points in particular, one in each bill, may well allow the military to retain power after the long-awaited poll.
The first point concerns the appointment of 250 senators with a five-year term by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) before the election takes place. Under the 2017 constitution, these senators have a mandate to join MPs in choosing a non-MP prime minister, a so-called "outsider" prime minister, if the need arises.
Of the 250 senators, 194 will be appointed by an NCPO selection panel while six seats are reserved for armed forces leaders. As for the remaining 50 senators, the NCPO will choose candidates through an open application process.
The provisional clauses in the organic bill endorsed by the NLA on Thursday demand that the NCPO's initial shortlist of senatorial candidates will be made up of either independents or be put forward by 10 professional and social groups.
This is widely seen as an attempt to give the NCPO complete control of the 250 senators and make sure that no "nominees" of political parties can slip through the net since the council is involved both directly and indirectly in picking the senators.
The NLA cast 202 votes in favour of the organic bill on the selection of senators, with one vote against and 13 abstentions.
The other point is the campaign spending limit stipulated in the organic bill on MP elections.
Under the organic law, there are four spending ceilings for parties depending on how many MP candidates they field both in the constituency and party list systems. The parties which put up 1-125 candidates will receive the smallest ceiling, those fielding 126-250 candidates get the medium ceiling, 251-275 candidates earns a bigger ceiling while 276-500 candidates obtain the largest. The Election Commission is tasked with setting the limits for each group.
According to political observers, the new spending rule will tip the scale in favour of small- and medium-sized parties in certain constituencies where their candidates have solid support.
Large political parties will have to distribute their budget to cover all areas. This means in some constituencies, their resources may not measure up to those of their rivals from smaller parties.
The spending limit for different political parties is being introduced for the first time under the constitution. It is being launched as part of the mixed member proportional representation voting system which is also being unveiled for the first time in the next election.
Although the next election is unlikely to see a landslide victory by major parties, it may well be the small- and medium-sized parties which decide who will be the next prime minister.
It is believed that for the regime to remain in power it needs support from the Senate and mid-sized and small political parties.
The NLA passed the bill on the election of MPs with 211 votes in favour and seven abstentions. No one voted against it.
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political scientist at Rangsit University, agreed that the changes in the two organic laws are to ensure the NCPO has what it needs to return to power.
In his opinion, the nomination system for senatorial candidates has been modified to make it easier to manipulate than previously.
"The more the government takes field trips to visit people and politicians upcountry, the clearer the signal that the regime wants to stay in the game," he said.
