DURHAM, N.C. — Duke fans should expect to settle in and show patience while watching Wednesday night's NBA draft.
While the norm in recent years is to see former Blue Devils selected in the first few picks, none of the three underclassmen who entered the draft following last season are expected to go among the top 14 this year.
Over the past six years, at least one Duke player has been selected among the top three picks in every NBA draft. The streak started in 2014 when Jabari Parker went No. 2 overall to Milwaukee and lasted until the 2019 draft when New Orleans took Zion Williamson No. 1 and R.J. Barrett went No. 3 to the New York Knicks.
Duke has had a lottery player selected in eight of the past nine drafts, and 11 in the past six years.
But NBA scouts don't look at this year's group of Blue Devils, featuring point guard Tre Jones, small forward Cassius Stanley or center Vernon Carey, as they did past Duke top-three picks like Jahlil Okafor in 2015, Brandon Ingram in 2016, Jayson Tatum in 2017 or Marvin Bagley in 2018.
"I don't think there is a surefire first-round pick among the Duke guys this year, that there's a consensus no-brainer first rounder," ESPN basketball analyst Jay Bilas said.
Duke has had at least one player taken in the first round in each of the last nine drafts, a streak that started in 2011 when Kyrie Irving went No. 1 overall to Cleveland and Nolan Smith No. 22 overall to Portland.
Now, even though Bilas doesn't draw a consensus from NBA front-office types about any Duke first-round prospects, he does see one in Jones, who was named ACC player of the year as a sophomore last season.
The 6-foot-2 Jones not only averaged 16.2 points, 6.4 assists and 4.2 rebounds last season, but he was also named ACC defensive player of the year.
Bilas has him as the No. 24 overall prospect available in this year's draft.
"I think he's a really good player and he'll be a really good NBA guard because he plays at both ends of the floor," Bilas said. "He's really smart. He's a great on-ball defender. Now he needed to improve his shot. He improved it a good deal from his freshman year to last year. And I think he'll continue to improve it. He's long-armed, tenacious defensively, and a low-error point guard."
Rangy forwards and post players have been Duke's best NBA prospects in recent years. Even looking beyond Okafor, Bagley and Tatum, Wendell Carter was a lottery pick in 2018 when Chicago took him No. 7 overall, five picks after Sacramento selected Bagley.
Duke's best big man in this year's class is 6-10 freshman Vernon Carey, who averaged 17.8 points and 8.8 rebounds for the Blue Devils last season. Though he was named ACC freshman of the year and a first-team All-ACC pick, Carey's draft stock isn't as high as his Blue Devil predecessors in the post.
Bilas projects Carey as a second-round talent. Some other draft analysts have him being selected among the final picks of the first round.
Carey said he's lost 30 pounds since playing at around 270 pounds with the Blue Devils.
"I feel like with my weight loss these past few months, it definitely helped my athleticism," Carey said. "I feel like I got more mobile and that I can do much better and it's helped improve my game, for sure."
The 6-6 Stanley averaged 12.6 points last season and wowed with his athleticism. Bilas called Stanley's athleticism "eye-popping" but said he's still more of a second-round prospect.
"Stanley's athleticism sets him a part, but he's not a big guard," Bilas said. "And I think he can shoot it a little bit, but he's not a great shooter. He's not a standout shooter."
