To be hailed as a truly great tournament this Rugby World Cup needs at least one epic knockout occasion. And here it comes, thundering out of the tunnel at full throttle with its headlights blazing bright. It is 12 years since New Zealand last lost a World Cup game but their onrushing semi-final with England could prove an era-defining fixture.
Dodge the approaching white bullet train and the All Blacks will be just 80 minutes away from becoming the first team in history to win three consecutive Webb Ellis Cups. The final would still await but, having beaten South Africa in the pool stages and not lost to Wales for 66 years, there would be legitimate grounds for optimism. Win again and, with three World Cup successes, captain Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock and Sonny Bill Williams would even edge beyond all-time greats like Richie McCaw and Dan Carter.
It makes them uniquely dangerous opponents, not least in a land where All Black replica shirts sell particularly well. Consider, though, the flip side of the Kiwi two-dollar coin. In terms of generating fresh interest and momentum in England, a red rose victory would transcend anything since 2003. For the most united squad to have worn the national jersey since those halcyon days, victory would also validate some of the less cosy aspects of Eddie Jones’s relentless regime.
At a stroke it would triumphantly justify four years of training field sweat and, perhaps even more crucially for the Rugby Football Union, transform global perceptions of English rugby. For anyone in their mid teens or younger, World Cups have so far yielded only furrowed brows, ferry frolics and frustration. If those three f’s can be replaced with fast, furious and fun, Twickenham’s bank overdraft will disappear soon enough.
How, then, to make it happen? Just two England teams, in 1973 and 2003, have ever beaten the All Blacks away from Twickenham and there is no World Cup precedent. The mind’s eye, instead, still spools back to Jonah Lomu gathering pace in front of the Newlands press box in 1995 before stampeding over a helpless Mike Catt to set the instant tone in the only previous semi-final between these sides. If ever there was a moment for an Englishman to make a similarly dramatic impact, this is it.
Or, to be strictly accurate, 23 Englishmen. While New Zealand have played the more dazzling rugby so far, there might just be a collective glimmer of hope for Jones’s tight-bonded squad. England’s strengths lie in their defensive organisation, their close-quarters strength, their improving discipline and their rising self belief. Add in Owen Farrell’s goal-kicking and perhaps the odd drop goal from George Ford and they will hope to squeeze the All Blacks until even Gladys Knight’s old backing band start to squeak. As Jones pithily put it: “We want to write the script. We don’t want to be watching it, we’ve got to be in there writing it.”
Something similar clearly worked for the British and Irish Lions in New Zealand two years ago, notwithstanding the 25th-minute dismissal of Williams in the pivotal second Test in Wellington. Steve Hansen and his players will encounter many of the same faces – Farrell, Maro Itoje, Mako Vunipola, Jamie George, Kyle Sinckler, Anthony Watson and Elliot Daly – plus a couple of impressive fresh ones in Tom Curry and Sam Underhill. To suggest that, somehow, England will fold like a scout tent at the first hint of pressure is fanciful.
So the first part of the equation is simple: get ahead of New Zealand and try and make them force the odd pass, scuff a clearance or two and generally start to fray at the edges. No one in the right mind would ever describe Ardie Savea and the rejuvenated Read as easy touches but if Billy Vunipola finally comes good and Manu Tuilagi finds half a yard of daylight they should propel their team over the gainline. In that event even Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett will have fewer opportunities to weave their black magic and the odds on the referee, Nigel Owens, awarding England kickable penalties may slightly improve.
Do not try and copy the slick, digital-age All Blacks, in short, just throw the whole printer at them for 80 minutes. While Hansen has stacked his side’s lineout by picking Scott Barrett on the blindside flank, Jones does not believe the switch will prove decisive on its own. “Generally in rugby I’ve found that if you go into a game with a perceived strength it doesn’t always happen. You don’t know how many lineouts there are going to be in the game. It might be a game of 15 lineouts, it might be a game of 10 lineouts. Why worry about things you don’t know about?”
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Team guides
Pool A: Ireland, Japan, Russia, Samoa, Scotland
Pool B: Canada, Italy, Namibia, New Zealand, South Africa
Pool C: Argentina, England, France, Tonga, USA
Pool D: Australia, Fiji, Georgia, Uruguay, Wales
The better way forward, as even Namibia have shown at this World Cup, is to be proactive, forceful and fearless with the ball and persistent irritants without it. England were in possession for just over 10 minutes in their quarter-final against Australia and still won 40-16, demonstrating their improving ability to turn turnovers into points. This time they will be looking to Ford to provide clever little grubbers and diagonal kicks in addition to aiming a few time-honoured high balls at Beauden Barrett, Sevu Reece and George Bridge. If there is not at least one score in this game courtesy of an accurate cross-kick it will be a considerable surprise.
Hopefully, for the sake of all concerned, the pitch will be rather drier than it was for England’s eve-of-game captain’s run; much more rain and there would have been koi carp swimming in the 22. It would be a shame to see the haka performed in masks and snorkels but, either way, Farrell wants his side to display the controlled aggression that has become their trademark and to be energised, rather than cowed, by the looming challenge. “I don’t think we have to pull any rabbits out of the hat,” said England’s captain. “We want to play the way that suits us and so far this tournament we have been doing all right with that.”
Things did not turn out awfully well for his father Andy and Ireland against New Zealand last weekend but looking back has never been Farrell Jr’s style. If he and Jones can heave England into a World Cup final at the All Blacks’ expense, they will see absolutely no reason why they cannot go all the way. Belief is fundamental to any epic heavyweight contest and England genuinely feel ready to rumble.
