The Boston Celtics’ season ended on Wednesday night after a 116-91 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinals, causing the franchise to seriously reevaluate a roster that was thought to rival the greatness of the Golden State Warriors. Fortunately for the Celtics, they’ll head into the 2019-20 offseason with many draft picks, important free agents, and desirable trade candidates, giving them the potential to make a big splash.
Payroll
Here is a look at the payroll for next season:
The Celtics are expected to have eight players guaranteed for $100.2 million, assuming both Al Horford and Aron Baynes opt into their respective player options. With nine players, the Celtics are already at $101.9 million payroll, which is just $27.3 million below the projected luxury tax. That is before signing their three draft picks, which are currently estimated to add $8.4 million in salary once signed.
Draft
The Celtics’ own pick is slotted at 22nd overall, the pick owed to them by the Los Angeles Clippers is slotted at 20th overall, and the pick owed to them by the Sacramento Kings is slotted at 14th overall. Whether the Celtics continue to remain competitive or rebuild, it’s unlikely in either scenario that they draft and sign all three first-round picks.
With three draft picks in the middle of the first round, it’s likely that they package some or all of them in a trade. They can move up in the draft, trade them for more future picks, or trade them for veteran players who can help them win now. With so many possibilities it is hard to gauge exactly what they will do with each pick.
Trade
The Celtics are eligible to trade for New Orleans Pelicans center Anthony Davis starting on July 1, the beginning of the NBA’s free agency period. Through forward-thinking transactions, Boston has remained asset-rich while having amassed multiple All-Star caliber players and arguably have the most desirable package to offer for Davis.
What the exact combination will be is still unknown but it will certainly include Marcus Smart, one of Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, and multiple first-round picks. Davis has a 15 percent trade bonus that would increase his salary to $31.1 million for 2019-20, meaning the Celtics must send $24.9 million in outgoing salary to make a trade just for Davis legal.
With or without Davis, Gordon Hayward is a trade candidate due to the $66.8 million remaining in his contract. He isn’t untradeable, there will be several teams interested in taking a chance on him if made available.
If the Celtics decide to rebuild, they can try to trade him to a team with cap space to reduce or completely eliminate his $32.7 million cap hit. In this type of deal they would seek a draft pick and/or a young player. If they re-sign Irving and trade a lot of depth for Davis, they could trade Hayward for several players to replenish the lost depth.
Player Options
Horford has a $30.1 million player option which he must decide on by June 29. Although $30 million seems like a no-brainer, there are several forces in the open market that may convince him to opt out.
With nine teams in free agency with maximum cap space, it isn’t unreasonable to believe that at least one of these teams could potentially offer Horford a multi-year contract that pays him close to what he earns now. This scenario becomes a reality if most top free agents re-sign with their current teams, leaving tons of unspent cap space elsewhere.
If he opted out, he would likely do it with assurances of a deal he desires elsewhere. Opting out could also be an indication that he’s preventing a trade to New Orleans, if there’s a strong possibility that he will be included in a trade for Davis. It’s also possible that he signs an extension with the Celtics, including a type of deal where he declines his player option and takes a reduced salary for next season in exchange for three-to-four guaranteed seasons.
Aron Baynes has a $5.4 million player option. With his health being a concern, and big men not being prioritized in recent offseasons, expect him to opt in for next season.
Free Agents
Irving also has a player option worth $21.3 million, but he is expected to not exercise it and become a free agent. He’s eligible to sign a projected five-year, $189.6 million contract with the Celtics. He’s also eligible to sign a four-year, $140.6 million contract with a different team. In both scenarios, he would have a projected starting salary of $32.7 million.
If re-signed, his salary alone would put the Celtics back into the luxury tax, assuming both Horford and Baynes return. It may be beneficial for both he and the Celtics for him to return on a two-year, $68 million deal with a player option for the season year. With questionable options elsewhere and the possibility to team up with Anthony Davis still in play, he may want to stick around for at least one more season.
Terry Rozier is entering restricted free agency and will have a $4.3 million qualifying offer available to him. His recent comments suggest that he no longer wants to be a backup point guard but that may not be up to him. Even if a team who plans on starting him signs him to an offer sheet, the Celtics can easily match it.
His free agency may last a long time because if Irving doesn’t return, Rozier will have more leverage since the Celtics are capped out and are limited in ways of replacing either guard. If Irving returns, there is a strong chance Rozier accepts his qualifying offer if he cannot find an offer sheet that the Celtics wouldn’t match and become an unrestricted free agent in 2020.
Marcus Morris is coming off a career year and the Celtics have his full bird rights. His level of play should garner him a considerable raise with a starting salary similar to or higher than his $10.2 million cap hold. However, with Irving’s free agency and a potential Davis trade in play, he may not be a priority early on in free agency.
Depending on how the roster looks like and where they are in regards to the tax will play into the Celtics’ decision to re-sign him. If they bring back Irving, acquire Davis, and lose wing-depth in the process, they will likely want to re-sign Morris since they have limited means to replace him. In this scenario, he should have plenty of leverage to earn a significant raise, especially if he has multiple suitors.
Exceptions
With the Celtics’ current payroll they will have access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception worth $9.3 million. They can utilize most or all of it prior to re-signing their own free agents although doing so would subject them to the hard cap projected at $138 million.
Because they were over the luxury tax threshold and did not utilize their mid-level exception at all last season, they will likely abstain from using it early on. They need the flexibility to significantly increase their payroll, especially if they re-sign Irving, acquire Davis, and keep one or both of Horford and Hayward.
