Can coverage match tackling in 2019?
Its a senior laden cast at safety
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If you have been keeping up with our position previews for Air Force, there has been a lot of optimism drawn from the prior season’s performers. The Falcon secondary is the position group that has the most to prove this season though.
That’s not to say there isn’t optimism around the defensive backfield at Colorado Springs. But I think it’s fair to say the biggest unknown factor in Air Force’s ability to swing from a bordering Bowl eligible team, to legitimate Mountain Division Contender is how the secondary will perform this year.
Chip Vaughn returns for his second season as the secondary coach at the Academy, and if you subscribe to defensive team rankings, his unit has a lot of opportunity to improve on their placement.
Air Force’s pass defense finished outside of the top 100 in five different categories. Most notably, they finished dead last in the FBS in yards per completion by opposing offenses. For context, that means 129 teams finished ahead of them.
Support from the Safeties
The secondary is not entirely responsible for their less than favorable place in pass defense rankings. However, there is a serious onus on them if they wish to improve upon that standing. This position group was riddled with injuries and an inconsistent lineup in 2018. As would be with most teams who share this type of narrative, the results were less than favorable.
That was last year’s team.
If you are looking for reasons why this group can rebound this year, look no further than the safeties. The secondary will return five interceptions and 13 pass breakups to the 2019 edition of the Falcons. Four of those possession changers came courtesy of the safeties.
Air Force is loaded with seniors and experience at safety. Some may contend that it’s not necessarily a good thing if you are returning players at a position which didn’t fare well as far as the statistics reflect. I would beg to differ in this case.
One of the reasons I believe safety play can be formidable this season is because of Jeremy Fejedelem. He was an honorable mention for the Mountain West All-Conference team last year, racking up a team-leading 104 tackles to go along with three interceptions. He began seeing playing time as a cornerback in 2017, and he displays that playmaking ability which compliments his reliability as a tackler. The downside of that is, no team wants to see their safety making this many tackles.
Fejedelem made the most of his opportunity and shined when he moved to safety. Ironically, one of the reasons he was able to see the field initially was an injury to then-starting safety Garrett Kauppila. Unfortunately, Kauppila has been embattled with injuries the last two seasons, but when healthy he has proven to be a very good player. In his 11 games seeing action, Kauppila has tallied 50 tackles, 4 pass breakups, a forced fumble and two game-changing blocked punts. This is productivity that the Falcons would love to see generated across a full season.
Returning in 2019 is also James Jones IV. He was a pretty distinguished cornerback recruit to the Academy as a three-star prospect. Jones IV missed all of last year because of a knee injury in the off-season. Assuming he can regain form, he gives the Falcons some flexibility as he can also line up on the outside.
The other member of that aforementioned collection of senior safeties is Grant Thiel, and he is the wildcard of this bunch. In his three games as a starter last season he collected an interception, tackle for loss and a forced fumble. As it stands, Thiel and Fejedelem closed out spring camp at the top of the depth chart projecting as the two starters.
Covering the Outside
What the Air Force defense really could use is for a surprise performer to rise out of the cornerback group, similar to Roland Ladipo a few seasons back. The Falcon’s have not had a shutdown corner to rely on in recent history, and that has shown on the scoreboard as well as the stat-line.
Last year did provide an opportunity for what appears to be this year’s starters at the cornerback position to get very meaningful experience. Both Milton Bugg III (junior) and Zane Lewis (senior) earned significant playing time last season as the Falcon’s tried to find the right collection of personnel to stave off the opponents passing.
Zane Lewis started the last 11 games of 2018, and had what is possibly the most highlight reel worthy play of the year by way of a 99 yard interception return for a touchdown. Unfortunately, that is the only interception belonging to the 2019 cornerbacks on the Air Force roster. Lewis also tallied six pass breakups to compliment his 43 tackles. With his steady play, Lewis should be a fixture in this year’s defense. Another year of development could go a long way towards ushering a serious turnaround for the pass defense.
Starting opposite Lewis looks to be Milton Bugg III. Like his counterpart, Bugg III played in every game last season, earning the start in four of them. During that game action he was able to collect 20 tackles and two pass break ups. He is also one of the handfuls of three star prospects that have fought through the depth chart. Hopefully that talent which earned Bugg III that prospect rating continues to improve.
Pushing on the depth chart at corner is a pair of juniors that are also twin brothers. Elijah and Elisha Palm both closed out spring camp cracking the two-deep depth chart. If they aren’t able to overtake one of the presumed starters at corner, they could see opportunities in sub-package pass defense situations.
Considering that four different cadets got opportunities to start at cornerback last season, while the defense tried to figure out the right formula, it stands to reason that the depth at this position should remain prepared for an opportunity.
Looking Ahead
It remains to be seen whether returning players be it from injury or otherwise, will prove to be cause for expectations of improved play from the secondary. I believe there is certainly more cause to expect them to improve on their position in the pass defense rankings.
There is no Brett Rypien or Marcus McMaryion on the schedule. Jordan Love, unfortunately for every Mountain Division secondary still is though. They will also have to contend with Stephen Montez (Colorado), a pass happy Hawai’i team and presumably Colin Hill (Colorado State) for a game at Fort Collins. So make no mistake, in spite of the two cloud of dust contests with their Military Academy brethren at Army and Navy, the Air Force secondary will be tested early and often. A strong showing from this group would go a long way in putting a very high ceiling on the Falcon’s win total probability in 2019.
