Thomas Ruttig of the Afghanistan Analysts Network was staying near the site of today's attacks in Kabul. Ruttig's analysis of the insurgency last year is still widely circulated as one of the most dispassionate and accurate around.
In a blog on today's attacks, Ruttig points out that the attack took place on the Prophet Mohamed's birthday and claimed mainly Muslim casualties. He also points out it happened the day after the first Indo-Pakistani talks since the Mumbai attacks in November 2008, and that the two main guesthouses targeted, Hamid's and Park Residence, were mainly used by Indian nationals.
This possibly is no coincidence. In this connection, today's attack in Kabul can be read as another attack on Indian targets in Kabul (the Indian embassy here was bombed in July 2008) and – indirectly – on initiatives to improve the Indo-Pakistani relationship?So, why do the Taleban make themselves an instrument of those – by claiming responsibility – who do not want to see such an improvement to happen? Does the whole Taleban movement support such a strategy? What about Mulla Omar's statement of late last year that the Taleban do not threaten any neighboring and also any other country? Does that not apply for India? Does Zabihullah Mujahed speak for Mulla Omar or not?
Or has this attack been carried out by other elements: Pakistani Taleban, the Haqqani network or those linked to groups like Lashkar-e Tayba or al-Qaida that has declared 'Hindu' India a target, too? Are Afghan elements linked to these groups (like the Haqqanis) out of Mulla Omar's control? This would apply to spokesman Zabihullah Mujahed, too.
Ruttig suggests the attacks add weight to the view that the ISI's recent arrests have targeted Taliban leaders known to favour a political solution. By that reckoning, this attack was aimed jointly at the Indo-Pakistani peace moves and a political settlement in Afghanistan. A depressing prospect.
