Keir Starmer’s “phase two” government reset would not have started this badly in his worst nightmares. Losing his deputy prime minister, his US ambassador and seeing more than 100,000 right-wing protesters take to the streets of London has prompted serious questions over his future, and whether or not he is the right person to lead Labour into the next election.
Speculation about a future successor is rife, and the name on many lips is one that will be welcome news to many – but perhaps none more so than Nigel Farage, whose week has already got off to an excellent start as he welcomes his first Tory MP defector.
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is a former cabinet minister, articulate and charismatic – and would certainly represent a fresh start for this Labour government.
Unfortunately, though, his route back to parliament to enable him to be prime minister represents a massive opportunity for Reform.
The fact is that a Labour MP, preferably in the Manchester area, would need to stand down and enable a by-election.
Graham Stringer, 75, may vacate Blackley and Middleton South, or there is speculation over suspended MP Andrew Gwynne, 51, regarding his Gorton and Denton constituency.
In both seats, Reform is the favourite to win and – after taking the Labour safe seat of Runcorn and Helsby in a huge by-election victory earlier this year – there is no doubt they could add to the seats they’ve won from Starmer’s party.
Arguably, Reform is in better shape to win a by-election now than when Sarah Pochin won by six votes in May.
Added to the problem is that whichever by-election Burnham stood in, he would be billed as the next prime minister – which would put an even bigger target on his back. Voters generally do not like being taken for granted in that way.
If this were to happen and Reform was to defeat Burnham in a by-election, it would not just be a terrible humiliation for the Manchester mayor but for Labour as a whole – while giving Farage and Reform an almighty boost.
However, after Starmer’s latest failed attempt at a fresh start, it is perhaps no surprise that Labour MPs are now panicking.
With Angela Rayner, the obvious candidate to replace him, now licking her wounds after resigning over her tax affairs, there are few valid options in parliament.
Supporters of health secretary Wes Streeting will push for him if and when it comes to it, but he would represent a rightward move for a party which wants to make a hard turn left.
This explains why somehow getting Burnham back into parliament is such an attractive option – despite him losing Labour leadership elections in 2010 and 2015.
But the harsh reality is that there is no realistic route for him to become leader. If he tries, all he and Labour will do is hand Farage a huge opportunity in a genuine showdown.
Even if the Labour Party needs saving, trying to bring back Andy Burnham would be a gamble too far.
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