Scott Morrison has left the door open to introducing sanctions against China, Australia’s largest trading partner, if Chinese president Xi Jinping’s regime were to provide military equipment to Russia.
The prime minister said his government would move in lockstep with its allies and partners in response to what he called Beijing’s “chilling silence” on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He said any move by China to arm Russia would be “an abomination”.
The defence minister, Peter Dutton, also said China’s failure to condemn Russia “should send alarm bells across the world” while he suggested that “all free nations will face a darker tomorrow” if Vladimir Putin succeeds.
“It is becoming clear that Putin’s Ukrainian gamble has been a miscalculation that may very well destroy the man himself,” Dutton told a United States Studies Centre event in Canberra.
But experts questioned whether a so-called “palace coup” against Putin was likely, and whether Australia would expand sanctions to cover China.
China remains Australia’s largest trading partner, despite Beijing launching a series of trade actions against Australian export sectors in recent years that have been at the centre of a downward spiral in the relationship.
Dennis Richardson, former head of the departments of defence and foreign affairs, said it would surprise him “if we got to the point where sanctions were being imposed on China” because Beijing was likely to “operate in a grey area”.
With an election looming in Australia in May, both major parties have stepped up their pleas for China to press Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine, citing the “no limits” partnership formalised between the two countries six weeks ago.
The focus on Beijing has increased after US officials said they feared China had already decided to provide Russia with economic and financial support and was contemplating sending military supplies, such as armed drones.
Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said earlier this week that Beijing would “absolutely” face consequences if it helped Moscow avoid sanctions.
Asked on Wednesday whether there was potential for Australia to impose sanctions against China, Morrison said: “We will move in lockstep with our partners and allies on these issues, and the United States has made some very clear statements about this and we support those statements.”
He called on China “to be very transparent” about the nature of its relationship with Russia “when it comes to throwing them an economic lifeline during this global crisis”.
The prime minister said Beijing should also clarify “potentially what, if any, support has been discussed for military support for Russia, because that would be an abomination”.
The Labor leader, Anthony Albanese, was also asked about the possibility of sanctions against China and replied that he supported Australia “acting in conjunction with our partners in the world”.
“China has a responsibility to call out Russia’s behaviour and its aggression,” Albanese said.
Labor’s foreign affairs spokesperson, Penny Wong, met with China’s new ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, on Wednesday and expressed “her serious concerns over reports that Russia has asked China for weapons”.
“Senator Wong urged China to support the people of Ukraine and its sovereignty, and not provide weapons to Russia,” said a readout issued by Wong’s office.
China has not explicitly criticised Russia, insisting that “all parties” should exercise restraint and “cool the situation down instead of adding fuel to the fire”.
A foreign ministry spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, responded to reports that China had signalled its willingness to provide military assistance to Russia by accusing the US of “spreading disinformation”.
At a daily press conference in Beijing, Zhao said the US should “deeply reflect upon its role in the evolving situation”.
Pressed on whether China would rule out adding fuel to the fire by sending support to Russia, Zhao said: “Our position on the Ukraine issue is beyond reproach.”
The Lowy Institute’s lead economist, Roland Rajah, said there were “a lot of reasons to suspect significant sanctions [against China] would be avoided because all parties have interests to avoid it”.
Compared with Russia, he said, China was “vastly more integrated” in the global financial system and had significant trade and investment relationships with many countries including Australia.
“This is all very speculative at this point, but I would suspect America would proceed very cautiously in terms of anything they might do towards China,” Rajah said.
“I think there’s a lot of signalling going on.”
Richardson said Russia and China shared a strategic objective in weakening US global leadership. But he predicted Beijing would seek to limit any assistance provided to Russia in order to avoid reaching the threshold for western economic punishment.
Richardson noted China had abstained, rather than explicitly sided with Russia, when the United Nations voted on motions deploring the invasion of Ukraine.
Paul Dibb, another former senior defence official and strategic analyst, dismissed the likelihood of a “palace coup” or a popular uprising against Putin.
He said the likelihood of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny facing another 13 years in prison reflected Putin’s approach to dissent. Dibb said Putin had curbed media coverage and tightened the security agencies protecting him, and “only listens to people who agree with him”.
“I noticed Minister Dutton implied that there might be an internal issue,” Dibb told the National Press Club in Canberra.
“Well, with due respect, Minister, unless you have – and the Americans have – an agent inside the Kremlin, you ain’t going to get it.
“I hope Dutton is right, but … this is not going to be at all easy.”
Comment was sought from the Chinese and Russian embassies.
