1) The USA won, but a lot needed to go in their favor
On paper, a 2-0 win over Colombia to advance to the quarter-finals should look pretty good for the Americans. But in reality, the match was a slog that only seemed to relent when Colombia’s goalkeeper was shown a straight red card. The game changed instantly, and with Colombia down to 10 players and forced to use their third-choice goalkeeper due to suspensions, the USA finally broke through. The No-2 ranked team in the world should beat an undermanned No 28-ranked team with a third-string goalkeeper – but the US were utterly unconvincing.
Up until the dynamic of the match shifted with the 47th minute red card, Colombia were outplaying USA for stretches. Even after going down to 10 players, Colombia still didn’t crumble. Las Cafeteras picked apart the US midfield with slick, quick passing, and Lady Andrade especially showed clever flashes to create space. Before their luck turned, USA struggled to put much together by way of possession and there was a real sense the Americans could have had their earliest exit in a Women’s World Cup ever.
2) Fifa gave the Americans a gift
Would the Americans have won if they’d faced Switzerland or the Netherlands on Monday? We’ll never know, because those teams ended up on the other side of the draw for the round of 16. In terms of overall world rankings, the USA’s quadrant of the bracket has the weakest teams in the tournament, giving the Americans an easier path in the last 16 and quarter-finals than anyone in the tournament. This was not an accident.
Fifa placed seeded teams rather than drawing them for “sporting reasons,” which turned out to be code for “ticket sales.” Fifa wants both the USA and Canada to go far and it’s clear why: these two countries account for 95% of match ticket sales, according to the tournament’s organizing committee. We shouldn’t get too carried away, of course – a lot of the bracket was indeed unpredictable, and the USA ended up randomly with the toughest group in the whole tournament. But while No 1-ranked Germany and No 3-France won their groups and are rewarded with having to face off against one another in Friday’s quarter-finals, the USA won their group and won’t have to face another seeded team until the semi-final. Not bad, especially when you’re hardly setting the tournament alight on the field.
3) USA need Alex Morgan to win the World Cup
Some of the best news to come out of Monday’s match for the Americans is that Alex Morgan can go 90 minutes and look dangerous for all of them. Morgan was perhaps the best player on the field Monday for the Americans, with the exception of the unflappable Julie Johnston at center-back. Going into the tournament, Morgan was something of a question mark – she wasn’t even training with the team – but now she has resumed her status as a 90-minute starter, giving the Americans their best attacking option back.
If not for Morgan, it’s unclear where USA’s lead would have come from. She was the catalyst for their change in fortune, drawing the red card that ended up changing the match. After Wambach missed the penalty, Morgan returned to score her first goal for the USA since 6 March. Morgan had been out since April with a bruised knee bone, but she’s back in the nick of time.
4) Maybe Abby Wambach isn’t so clutch after all
Wambach has probably been called clutch thousands of times by people over her career. Coach Jill Ellis used the term just before the World Cup. It’s why Wambach has been a preferred penalty-taker for the Americans for a long time. When the 2011 World Cup final went to spot kicks against Japan, Wambach was the only one to bury hers. But what if she isn’t that clutch, at least not anymore?
Wambach had the chance to put the USA up after 47 minutes of deadlock with a penalty, but the right-footed veteran took the kick with her left foot, a new strategy she’s been using lately, and she missed the goal entirely. There aren’t any available statistics on Wambach’s penalty attempts through the years, but it anecdotally it seems she hasn’t been quite as deadly with her PKs now as she once was. Over the last 12 months, including Monday’s match against Colombia, Wambach has converted two penalties, had one saved and missed one – a 50% conversion rate.
5) USA’s missing starters could cost them
Both Megan Rapinoe and Lauren Holiday earned second yellow cards on Monday, which means they are suspended for Friday’s quarter-final against China. That’s unfortunate for USA because Rapinoe is one of the few players who has shown the ability to rise above the team’s sluggishness and seize the game for herself. Holiday is also a key, consistent piece of the midfield engine and an experienced figure with more than 125 caps.
Ellis’s line-ups haven’t exactly been revolutionary and we can take a good guess at who will start in the place of Rapinoe and Holiday. For Rapinoe, expect striker Christen Press to resume her role as winger under Ellis with Tobin Heath on the other flank. For Holiday, 22-year-old Morgan Brian will likely take over that central midfield role in a pairing with Carli Lloyd. Brian is the youngest player on the USA roster, but she’s already made three appearances in this World Cup, including a start against Sweden as a winger.
