What are the five key questions going into the season that need to be asked at American Athletic Conference football media days?
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American Athletic Team Previews, 5 Things To Know
East Cincinnati | ECU | Temple | UConn | UCF | USF
West Houston | Memphis | Navy | SMU | Tulane | Tulsa
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American Athletic Conference Media Days
July 15, 16. Newport, RI
5. Q: So what’s going to happen when UConn bolts?
UConn is out of the whole American Athletic Conference business starting next season. Of course it would’ve made the most sense to go to the Big East in all of the other sports and stay in the AAC in football, but that’s not happening.
Part One: Where is UConn going? Being an independent would be the easiest move, but then it’s out there in the wilderness. Bowl tie-ins become a problem, interest becomes an issue when there’s nothing to play for, and there’s not much of an onfield upside.
Conference USA would be an easy fit if the league chooses to expand, but the league won’t be rolling out the red carpet considering the other sports aren’t a part of the fun.
Program-wise, it would also be a step down. The American Athletic Conference is either the sixth or seventh-best conference in college football. Conference USA is behind the AAC and Mountain West when it comes to Group of Five cachet.
Which then begs Part Two of the big question, and it’s the one that matters to the AAC – who fills the void to keep it a 12-team league?
Bringing in Army would be fantastic. It could slide right into UConn’s spot in the East while Navy is in the West, the rivalry game can remain intact – yes, move it up a few weeks if you have to; it’ll be okay – and it makes perfect geographic sense.
UMass would also be a good regional fit, but … nah. There’s not enough oomph.
Marshall has to get a look, Florida International and Florida Atlantic might have a shot, and there’s the option of taking all three and becoming a 14-team league.
There will be a whole slew of non-answer, answers at media days about this, because no one knows yet.
NEXT: What can the league to do actually become a part of a Power 6?
4. Q: What can the league to do actually become a part of a Power 6?
It’s a marketing gimmick that at best looks boastful, and in reality comes across as sad and needy.
It’s not even a given that the American Athletic is the sixth-best conference in college football in years when the stars of the Mountain West are rocking, but the league has tried to push its way into making fetch a thing by saying it’s a member of the non-existent Power 6.
The AAC is just not in the same world as the ACC, Big 12 or Pac-12 at the moment, and it’s definitely not in the same solar-system as the Big Ten or SEC – and here’s where the argument from the AAC’s side goes from silly to dangerous.
Of course UCF over the last few years could be more than competitive in a Power Five conference. Of course USF has a whole lot of positive aspects to its program – like geography, city, enrollment size. Of course Cincinnati, Memphis and Houston are all interesting urban schools sitting in good TV markets.
And, of course, that means the Big 12 should go and grab them.
At some point, the ten-team Big 12 conference will wake up and realize how obvious a plus it would be for reach, market share and fan base attention by snapping up UCF and USF. It would also make a whole lot of sense to add Houston to the equation, and/or Cincinnati or Memphis as a regional rival for West Virginia.
So while the American Athletic Conference might want to pump itself up – it’s in the business of self-promotion – it’s setting itself up for a potentially big problem.
The other way to do this is to get cocky and go after the stars in the Mountain West.
With UConn leaving, going to get Boise State, Fresno State and San Diego State – while making no geographic sense whatsoever – for a 14-team league would be a bold attempt at greatness and a true Power 6 designation.
NEXT: The program to watch out for is … ?
3. Q: The program to watch out for is … ?
Cincinnati was a big player in the 2009 BCS chase and would’ve been in a College Football Playoff if it existed. Before that, though, it was a mid-level Conference USA program for a long stretch.
UCF might be special now, but it also had two winless seasons since 2004.
Houston went 0-11 in 2001 and had a slew of losing seasons before rising up into a consistent winner.
Temple was among America’s worst college football programs for a long, long stretch, SMU spent decades getting past its problems in the 1980s, and Memphis had six straight losing seasons before 2014.
And there was a time when East Carolina wasn’t awful.
It’s been a rough run with three straight 3-9 seasons and four straight losing campaigns, but ECU used to be a Conference USA powerhouse and has the potential to become one in the American Athletic Conference.
The Pirates won back-to-back titles in 2008 and 2009, was a given to go bowling every year, and came up with a ten-win season as recently as 2013.
The hiring of Mike Houston flew under the radar, but he was an interesting get with a great resumé. In eight years of being a head coach at three different levels, he has won six conference titles, gone to six playoffs, and won a national championship.
A star at James Madison, he went 37-6 over the last three seasons, and now he makes the trip down the road 300 miles to take over an East Carolina program that should – and likely will – be a whole lot better than this.
NEXT: How much of a gamechanger is Dana Holgorsen going to be?
2. Q: How much of a gamechanger is Dana Holgorsen going to be?
See Question 4.
This wasn’t some guy who got canned and was looking for a gig. Dana Holgorsen was coming off of five straight winning seasons and a 61-41 record at West Virginia to take on everything Houston can potentially be.
The guy knows the program, he knows offenses, and he knows how to coach in the Power Five world. The pressure is on now to take Houston and make it the star of the American Athletic Conference, but there should be bigger goals, too.
Houston should be a part of the Big 12, and while going to Oklahoma to start the season and playing Washington State early on won’t push things one way or the other, you had better believe that if the program starts winning big again – especially if Holgorsen can soon come up with a 13-1-like season that Tom Herman cranked up in 2015 – the chatter will begin.
Does the Big 12 need another Texas-based program? Not really, but if TCU and Baylor can thrive in the conference, Houston can add something interesting, too.
But even if any success from Holgorsen isn’t the impetus for conference expansion, taking the football program from good to powerhouse status would do wonders for the conference as a whole.
What UCF has been doing is great, but if it has an equally-successful counterpart in the West, now the league takes on a whole new level.
NEXT: If UCF goes unbeaten again, will it finally get a break from the College Football Playoff?
1. Q: If UCF – of if any AAC team – goes unbeaten again, will it finally get a break from the College Football Playoff?
Nope, and here’s your reason why.
Boise State.
Back in the 2000s, Boise State did what UCF has done over the last two seasons, only a whole lot better and a whole lot longer.
2002: 12-1 with a bowl win over Iowa State.
2003: 13-1 with a bowl win over TCU and the lone loss by two points on the road to a solid Oregon State team.
2004: 11-0 to start the season with a blowout win over Oregon State, and a 44-40 loss to a phenomenal Louisville team in the bowl game.
There was a mediocre 9-4 season in 2005, but after the previous three years, did the Boise State program have the street cred to be in the hunt for the BCS title in 2006 when it started the season off 12-0, including a 42-14 destruction of a ten-win Oregon State team? Nope … and then it beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.
2008 Boise State had a 12-0 regular season with a win over a ten-win Oregon team along the way. Was that enough to get any attention in the national title chase? Nope.
How about in 2009, when the Broncos started out with a win over an Oregon team that went on to play in the Rose Bowl, and finished 14-0 with a Fiesta Bowl victory over an unbeaten TCU squad? That HAD to generate a whole lot of national championship chatter after beating an eventual 11-win Virginia Tech team to start the season … Nope.
But after beating a fabulous Georgia team in Atlanta to kick off the 2011 campaign on the way to a 12-1 season, now that … nope.
Granted, that was the BCS era when only two teams got to the title game, but even if there was a College Football Playoff in place, the breaks wouldn’t have been there for any of those amazing Boise State teams to be assured of a spot in the final four
And you think the College Football Playoff committee is going to do cartwheels over UCF just because it had two straight really good seasons?
It might not be fair, and it might not be right, but the dynamics haven’t changed.
The Power Five is the Power Five, and the American Athletic Conference isn’t in it.
Would UCF have a better shot – at least in terms of public outcry – to get into the College Football Playoff if it went 13-0 yet again, only this time with wins over Stanford and Pitt? Yeah, probably. But again, is UCF a Power Five program? No.
Would an unbeaten UCF team get in over a two-loss SEC champion? No.
Would an unbeaten UCF team get in over a one-loss Power Five champion? No, unless it was Stanford or Pitt.
It’ll take UCF to go unbeaten in the regular season yet again, and then hope for at least two Power Five conference champions to have two losses or more to get it done, and even then it’ll have to hope that the SEC doesn’t have two worthy teams.
But all the program can do is keep on winning and see if the breaks finally come its way.
American Athletic Team Previews, 5 Things To Know
East Cincinnati | ECU | Temple | UConn | UCF | USF
West Houston | Memphis | Navy | SMU | Tulane | Tulsa
