As each day passes, the future of the electric vehicle in America faces a greater and greater existential crisis. Legislation on the federal level aims to kill incentives to get EVs in driveways, and the federal government is no longer interested in putting charging stations along our roadways.
But, it’s not quite all doom and gloom for the entire EV industry. Today’s crop of stories may not paint a great picture for America, but we’ve got to zoom out and look at the big picture.
Welcome back to Critical Materials, your one-stop shop for some of the hottest daily stories in the auto industry and technology arenas. Today, a new report shows that really only the U.S. is backing away from EVs, while two different brands strategize to ensure both get maximum penetration from their new EV products.
30% Only America Is Turning Away From EVs
It’s been hard to ignore the inevitable here: America’s EV market seems poised for a slowdown. There are countless reasons for this, including EV fans souring on Tesla, lawmakers gutting federal incentives and the promise of a truly cheap (without incentives) EV continuing to be a pipe dream for most Americans.
Still, this doom-and-gloom outlook really only applies to the United States. A new report from BloombergNEF shows that global EV sales are headed for a record-breaking year, even without our help here in America.
Most of the growth comes from China, a place that will dominate a full two-thirds of all EVs sold on the planet in 2025. Europe still takes up a sizable portion, at 17%, while the U.S. trails far behind at a measly 7%. Blame the Trump administration's policies and those of a supportive Congress; just as America's commitments to tariffs may be thin and contingent, the "taco" effect is happening in the battery and EV race too.
BloombergNEF doesn’t think straits are likely to improve in the U.S., either.
Despite the global growth of EV sales, BNEF has reduced its long-term and short-term passenger EV adoption outlook for the first time largely due to the various policy changes in the US.
The roll-back of federal fuel-economy standards, the phase-out of the EV tax credit and the potential removal of California’s ability to set its own air quality standards, result in a notable decline in EV adoption in the US, impacting global adoption rates.
While passenger EV sales in the US are still projected to rise – from 1.6 million in 2025 to 4.1 million in 2030 – the revised outlook falls short of previous BNEF projections, resulting in 14 million fewer cumulative EV sales over that period.
[...] Our U.S. adoption outlook assumes California retains its waiver supporting the Advanced Clean Car II program. This is a major uncertainty in our outlook and revoking the waiver would result in U.S. EV sales falling further.
The rest of the world, however, is moving on without us.
"Emerging” markets like Thailand and Brazil are swiftly growing in their overall market share of EVs on the road. These markets may not challenge all of Europe, China or the U.S., but their growing share of EVs on the road speaks volumes. China’s skill at making cheap EVs like the BYD Seagull is very valuable in markets where consumers are very price-sensitive.
BloombergNEF still sees China continuing to dominate global EV numbers, even with its overcapacity issues in battery and vehicle assembly plants. In China, it’s not hard to find EVs that are cheaper than combustion-powered cars, a boon to consumers in search of a new car.
60% Nissan Aims The Leaf At EV Newcomers, But Its Rollout Will Be 'Conservative' And 'Targeted'
This week, we’ve learned a lot about the new Nissan Leaf. This third-generation car is a full clean-sheet design that seemingly addresses all the flaws of the first two. It’s got a Tesla-style NACS port, and rides on mechanicals that aren’t dissimilar to what you’d find in the Ariya. Nissan isn’t telling on pricing just yet, but we’re expecting it to come in around $30,000, hopefully.
The car is designed to sway gas car buyers, but now that looks a lot harder to do this time around. The $7,500 tax credit is on the chopping block, and the Leaf is timed to completely miss the pool before it goes on sale. Current models are made in Tennessee and are eligible for part of the tax credit.
The forthcoming model is expected to be made in Japan and will be ineligible for the credit entirely, especially if legislation passes within the next few weeks that is designed to close any leasing loopholes.
Because of that, Nissan is playing it safe, according to an interview with Automotive News.
“Nissan’s U.S. sales and marketing boss, Vinay Shahani, acknowledged the “headwinds” of regulatory uncertainty and stagnating demand for the powertrain.
“To a certain extent, the market has been propped up by an additional force from the government,“ Shahani told Automotive News. “When that goes away, we’re truly going to see what the natural level of demand is.”
Shahani is planning for that with a conservative and targeted launch for the Leaf.
“We’re going to be metered in terms of how we ramp up production because I want to see how well it attracts customers,” Shahani said.”
Initially, the Leaf will launch and be targeted to places that are already EV-friendly, like California or Colorado. Nissan expects the Leaf to provide a slightly upscale driving experience compared to the combustion-powered vehicles it expects buyers to trade in for the car.
At the same time, that's who Nissan wants buying the Leaf. The automaker expects 60% of Leaf buyers to trade in an internal-combustion vehicle for it.
90% VinFast Embraces Dealerships
Surprisingly, VinFast is still sticking around in America. The cars themselves still aren’t that good or cost-competitive to purchase, but they’re still here, and I guess that counts for something.
But, to stay competitive, VinFast pivoted away from its original direct-to-consumer stores and into a traditional dealership model. This week, VinFast announced that it has opened its first dealership in California. Until now, the only way to get a VinFast in California would be at one of its stores.
The dealership is part of the Sunroad Automotive Group. VinFast is still seeking other California car dealership groups to join the party. From VinFast itself:
VinFast is accelerating the development of its dealership network across the U.S. and California has been identified as a top priority state because of its significant EV growth potential. In addition to the store in San Diego, VinFast is actively seeking and evaluating opportunities with other potential dealerships throughout California.
To optimize operations and strengthen its market position, VinFast introduced a dealership sales model in late 2023. Recognizing the distinct advantages of this distribution channel, the company recently made a strategic decision to fully transition to a franchise dealership model in all 50 states, aiming to maximize business efficiency. To date, VinFast has established a robust network of more than 30 authorized dealerships, with a strong presence across 15 key states in the U.S., including California, Texas, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, New York and others.
Still, it’s not quite clear how much longer VinFast has here in the U.S. The cheaper VF7 and VF6 aren’t on sale yet, while its North Carolina manufacturing plant remains an empty plot of land. I’m not sure the brand’s pivot to a dealership sales model can fix its deep, deep issues.
100% What Cheap EV Are You Looking Forward to the Most?
I’m not going to lie, it’s really tiring writing bad news about the EV industry. Yet, despite the glum outlook, there are companies that are attempting to bring the masses cheap(ish) EV driving.
Personally, I’m surprised at how nice the new Nissan Leaf looks. If it drives well enough, perhaps I could see myself owning one in the near future. Although with the EV tax credit’s leasing provision for non-American-made cars on the chopping block, the actual proposition may not be as strong as the current Leaf. Perhaps an older Leaf wouldn’t be so bad; I didn’t mind the older one I drove a couple of years back.
What are you excited about on the more affordable end of things?
Contact the author: Kevin.Williams@InsideEVs.com
