President Trump is flirting with one of the most toxic ideas in American politics — a new foreign military intervention — at one of the most precarious moments of his second term.
Why it matters: Trump's push toward regime change in Venezuela threatens to deepen a MAGA rift that detonated last week with the resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).
- The tensions mark the most public fracturing of Trump's coalition since he entered politics, unfolding against a backdrop of brutal polling for Republicans across the board.
- For a president who has long sold "no new wars" as his foreign-policy calling card, even a narrowly framed mission in America's "backyard" could shatter that promise.
Zoom in: For now, the U.S. warships and planes circling in the Caribbean are serving a dual purpose: destroying alleged drug boats and tightening the vise on Nicolás Maduro.
- Trump still favors a negotiated exit for Maduro and plans to speak privately with the Venezuelan dictator, a U.S.-branded "narcoterrorist" with a Justice Department bounty on his head.
- But Trump — whom a U.S. official described as the administration's biggest hawk on this issue — also has authorized CIA covert operations inside Venezuela and reserved the option to order land strikes at any time.
Driving the news: "If we can save lives, if we can do things the easy way, that's fine. And if we have to do it the hard way, that's fine too," Trump told reporters Tuesday when asked why he wants to speak to Maduro.
- "They've caused a lot of problems. They've sent millions of people into our country," he added, accusing Venezuela of facilitating the migration of gangs like Tren de Aragua.
Between the lines: The notion of deposing Maduro by force dates back to Trump's first term, yet appears to be deeply unpopular: 70% of Americans say they'd oppose military action in Venezuela, according to a CBS News poll.
- MAGA activists are similarly uneasy — supportive of Trump's crackdown on drug trafficking but wary of mission creep and the potential chaos of a new foreign conflict.
- For Tucker Carlson and the right's ascendant isolationists, the Venezuela brinkmanship offers a ripe opportunity to hammer "neocons" they accuse of betraying "America First" principles.
Reality check: The GOP is still Trump's party. And what he says, goes.
- Before the U.S. bombed Iran, social media was awash with speculation — including from the likes of Carlson and other isolationists — that military intervention would split the party.
- It didn't, in large part because Trump brokered a swift ceasefire after striking Iran's nuclear facilities.
Zoom out: Still, the threat of a new regime-change war is pouring fuel on MAGA's identity crisis, with several of the major pain points laid bare by Greene's shocking resignation last week.
- Israel: The staying power of pro-Israel forces inside the Trump administration has frustrated some MAGA activists, with white nationalist Nick Fuentes exploiting the division to inject overt antisemitism into the legitimate policy debate over U.S. support for Israel.
- Jeffrey Epstein: Trump's relentless efforts to block the release of the Epstein files — before abruptly reversing course — baffled loyalists such as Greene and unleashed a wave of paranoia and finger-pointing within the MAGA movement.
- Economic anxiety: Slumping consumer confidence and weak economic approval numbers are fueling demands by the right's populist base for Trump to focus inward — not jump into new foreign entanglements.
- H-1B visas: Trump's openness to expanding immigration for highly skilled workers has enraged nationalist factions who see it as a fundamental breach of "America First," pitting them against business-friendly conservatives.
- AI: Trump sees unshackling American AI dominance as a legacy-defining mission, backing a moratorium on state regulations even as MAGA populists such as Steve Bannon sound the alarm over a looming, AI-driven jobs apocalypse.
What they're saying: "On the campaign trail, President Trump promised to take on the cartels – and he has taken unprecedented action to stop the scourge of narcoterrorism that has resulted in the needless deaths of innocent Americans," White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement.
- "All of these decisive strikes have been against designated narcoterrorists bringing deadly poison to our shores. He is simultaneously revitalizing Biden's broken economy, securing the border, delivering on his promises for transparency, and restoring peace through strength – just as he promised."
The bottom line: Trump enters a critical phase of his presidency needing to repair the damage inside his coalition. A foreign confrontation with Venezuela could derail that project before it begins.
