On Tuesday, the Tour de France heads over a series of varied ascents through the Massif Central in south-central France, and if you ever wanted an indication of how surprising the climbs of the region tend to be, rewind the clock to 2020.
On stage 13 to Puy Mary-Pas de Peyrol that year, Dani Martínez clinched an unexpected victory for EF Education-EasyPost, making the early breakaway and surviving a series of attacks before beating Lennard Kämna to take his first Grand Tour stage.
EF Education-EasyPost team manager Charly Wegelius knows firsthand how the area of hidden valleys and unexpectedly steep climbs which retain a slightly musty, old-world charm can upend the Tour de France.
"Ironically, he wasn't particularly great the day before, so we kind of gave him a free role to see how it went," Wegelius recalled to Cyclingnews.
"Then they went like the clappers from the start, and he was in it from the start, too.
"I remember the finish very well. It was very steep and one of those finishes where they couldn't put much infrastructure because of the geography, so it was like - 'Is this really it?'"
The remote nature of the Puy Mary was made more stark amid the pandemic-delayed Tour de France that year, with no fans permitted to assemble.
Plenty of spectators witnessed Tadej Pogacar drop Jonas Vingegaard on the Puy Mary in 2024, only for the two to rejoin on the next ascent. Vingegaard then shocked Pogačar by beating him in Le Lioran in a two-up sprint.
Wegelius says this region lends itself to unpredictable stages.
"It's not just what we did with Dani. This is the part of the country where [1995 Tour de France stage winner] Laurent Jalabert got ten minutes on [five-time overall winner] Miguel Indurain."
The timing of Tuesday's stage could increase the chances of the unexpected, too.
"You know that the stage after a rest day can be odd, and you know that the middle of France can often be far more dramatic than the Alps. I think it's much more varied terrain, terrain that you can use a team on - it's ambush territory," Wegelius explained.
"Longer climbs split the bunch during a stage, and then people settle into their effort. Here it's much more varied, and there have always been interesting stages."
As for whether anything could happen to another potential five-time Tour winner like Pogačar on Tuesday, Wegelius doesn't rule it out completely.
"It's an anything-could-happen stage, big time," Wegelius says. "I think we've all got the tendency to think that the status quo in life will continue forever, but it never does. Is there a lot of evidence to think that he'll crack? No. But is it impossible? No.
"You're talking about Indurain, and nobody thought it [Indurain cracking] would ever happen, either."
EF Education-EasyPost have more to gain in fighting for stage wins than the GC battle, but getting riders into the breakaway is not straightforward.
Wegelius says it no longer matters whether someone like Pogačar or Vingegaard has a firm grip on GC. There are too many interests at stake in making the breakaway.
"In most situations, even when there's a clear GC leader, the importance of the other competitions also affects the race," he argues.
"Then as we go deeper into the race, we start this leapfrog thing of high-quality riders going into the breaks to try to break into the top 10 on GC, so there's always a source of speed in the peloton."
The blistering heat that has affected the 2026 Tour de France almost daily - even forcing organisers to shorten stage 9 - seems unlikely to slow things down.
"This kind of weather is like any other kind of extreme weather. In one sense, it's the same for everybody. On the other, it affects different riders differently.
"But it's the same as the cold and rain, there are some riders who go well in it, others who just go bang. It obviously affects everybody, but in very different ways."
EF Education-EasyPost have had some high points in this year's Tour, with Alex Baudin enjoying a spell in the polka dot jersey, and Sean Quinn being well placed on GC before the Tourmalet stage.
The team's leader, Richard Carapaz, is over 15 minutes down in the standings after a rollercoaster first half of the season, but Wegelius expects him to be in on the action. "It was very hard to set clear goals. But the moral of the story is that at the moment, he's going well.
"I think you can say we've been present when we had a realistic chance to be, and I hope that continues," Wegelius concluded. And if in the process one of his riders does a Martínez and surprises the EF management on Tuesday, Wegelius certainly won't be complaining.
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