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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Getting fully effective customs system after no deal Brexit would take two years, HMRC tells MPs - Politics live

Theresa May during prime minister’s questions.
Theresa May during prime minister’s questions. Photograph: HO/AFP/Getty Images

Afternoon summary

  • MPs have been told by HMRC that it would take two years from a no deal Brexit for the UK to have a fully effective customs system. (See 5.18pm.)

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

Is it true to say majority of MPs would stop a no deal Brexit?

Earlier today Amber Rudd, the new work and pensions secretary, said that parliament would stop a no deal Brexit going ahead. (See 9.18am.) A majority of MPs would oppose a no Brexit, she said. Labour is also making this argument forcefully, and other opposition parties too. But is it actually true?

The bit about a majority of MPs being opposed to a no deal Brexit is almost certainly right. There are Brexiters who think the risks associated with a no deal Brexit would be not excessive, or at least manageable, but they are a minority in the House of Commons, and easily outnumbered by the majority (almost all opposition MPs, and a sizeable chunk of Tories) who think that the risks would be unacceptable.

But it does not follow from that that this “majority” would stop Brexit, for two reasons in particular.

First, the “majority” would have to coalesce around an alternative; a majority against something, a blocking majority, would have to convert into an enabling majority, ready to vote through an agreed plan. That is by no means inevitable because there are big divisions among these MPs, of which the most important is the split between those who want to stop Brexit and those who believe it must proceed.

Second, MPs can pass or block laws and motions, but they can’t dictate to the executive. Ultimately decisions about Brexit are taken by the government. The EU negotiates with Theresa May, not with parliament. It was May’s decision to trigger article 50. She needed the authority of parliament, through the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal Act), but it was her to decision to press the button.

The only failsafe way by which a majority of MPs could stop a no deal Brexit would to oust May and replace her with a PM willing to ask the EU to suspend article 50 until a Brexit deal has been agreed. But Tory efforts in the last few days to replace May have failed, and if she were to go, she would probably be replaced by someone advocating an even harder line on Brexit.

Alternatively, MPs could pass a vote of no confidence in May and replace her with a prime minister running a new administration. In the past the loss of a no confidence vote would automatically trigger a general election. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, that is no longer the case, and, before an election took place, an alternative PM would have 14 days to win a confidence vote in the Commons. But the legislation does not specify who would get to try. (A new leader from the governing party, the opposition leader, someone else entirely?) It is hard to see the Tories losing a no confidence motion, and even harder to imagine the Queen inviting Jeremy Corbyn to form a minority government if it is inevitable that he will lose a confidence vote.

Labour says its preferred option would be a general election. But the Fixed-term Parliaments Act also comes into play here, and if the no confidence route fails, then the only other way an election can be triggered would be through a two-thirds majority of MPs, meaning May would have to order her party to vote for one. It is not inconceivable that she might choose this route as a means of trying to resolve a Brexit impasse, but it does seem most improbable. The EU would probably agree to suspend article 50 pending the arrival of a new government, but an election could result in another hung parliament, with no majority for any alternative Brexit course of action.

That leaves the legislative and resolution options. This morning John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said Labour could use “a war of attrition” to block the legislation due to be passed before 29 March to implement Brexit. (See 12pm.) But most of this legislation is about making Brexit practical. Unless MPs can repeal the EU Withdrawal Act, Brexit will happen. Perhaps, if MPs were to sabotage legislation and make a no deal Brexit even more chaotic than expected, the PM might blink, and suspend article 50, but, as a strategy, that’s a bit of a long shot.

The other main options involve passing motions or amendments requiring May to go negotiate an alternative Brexit, or to make Brexit conditional on a referendum. But there are huge practical problems in organising a referendum at short notice (well explained in this Constitution Unit briefing paper - pdf) and in practice it would not happen without a government committed to passing the relevant legislation. The same problem applies to the plan to get MPs to vote for an alternative strategy. As David Natzler, clerk of the Commons, explained recently, May could just ignore this.

So, to sum up, despite what opposition leaders are saying, it would be very hard for a majority of MPs to block a no deal Brexit if the prime minister were determined to go ahead with one. In practice, would May back down? Perhaps. But that would primarily be as a result of political pressure, not because of procedural powers available to MPs.

Updated

MPs told it would take two years from no deal Brexit for UK to have fully effective customs system

It will take two years to have a fully operational customs system at the UK border if the UK crashes out of the European Union without a deal, MPs were told this afternoon. As the Press Association reports, the Commons Treasury committee was told that “functioning but clearly sub-optimal” arrangements could be in place on March 29 2019 when the UK leaves but there would be a risk of failing to collect tariffs owed on imports.

Officials also said the prospect of traffic chaos at ports was a “known unknown” and could not be ruled out.

Giving evidence to the committee, HM Revenue and Customs chief executive Jon Thompson said:

The date for putting in an optimal customs system for the UK in the event of no deal was passed months ago.

Asked about the prospect of queues at ports, he replied:

It is plausible that there would be delays at the border. It’s very difficult to answer your question because we have a known unknown.

If you are going to go from Dover to Calais, you cannot know exactly how the French authorities would react when your lorry arrives there and whether or not there would or would not be a queue.

And senior HMRC official Jim Harra told the committee:

We have in place plans that in the event of us leaving on March 29 with no deal, we will be able to operate a functioning customs border with the EU.

We would start off with a functioning but clearly sub-optimal customs border. There would likely be some fiscal risk attached to that depending on what tariff decisions are ...

I think we are looking at a minimum of two years from the no deal to get to a point where you can say we have a steady-state system where we are comfortable that we can manage all the fiscal risks in a way we would like and trade can flow in the way we would like.

Updated

Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European commission, greeting Theresa May in Brussels this afternoon.
Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European commission, greeting Theresa May in Brussels this afternoon. Photograph: Thierry Monasse/Getty Images

This is from my colleague Daniel Boffey.

Theresa May has arrived at the European commission HQ for her meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker, the commission president.

Downing Street has played down reports (see 2.53pm) that Sunday’s EU summit, where the Brexit deal is supposed to be signed off, could be cancelled. This is from PoliticsHome’s Kevin Schofield.

But earlier today Valdis Dombrovskis, a European commission vice president said that for Sunday’s summit to go ahead, “we will need to have agreed beforehand the political declaration on the future relationship and we are not there yet”. He added:

Sherpas are due to meet on Friday. They will need to see a final text before then, and the Commission stands ready to consider the text and take any action at any time.

Corbyn leads well-wishers sending messages of support to critically ill veteran Labour activist Harry Leslie Smith

Well-wishers have been sending messages of support to second world war veteran and political activist Harry Leslie Smith, who is critically ill in hospital with suspected pneumonia following a fall. As the Press Association reports, the 95-year-old, who has also been a Guardian contributor, was in a critical condition on Wednesday, according to his son John, whom Harry was visiting in Canada when the accident occurred. The PA story goes on:

Tweeting from his father’s account, John wrote on Wednesday: “24 hours in and Harry is still in emerg waiting for an ICU bed thanks to the politics of austerity in Ontario.”

He added that the Barnsley-born activist had been allowed to drink a cup of tea.

Back in the UK, friends and supporters were sending their best wishes, led by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn and other Labour MPs.

Mr Corbyn wrote: “Very sorry to hear this. Please pass on my best to Harry. We need him to get well soon as the National Health Service, and our movement, needs him,” while deputy leader Tom Watson added: “You are in my thoughts Harry.”

Smith, who was a pilot in the second world war, spoke passionately about the NHS at the Labour party conference in 2014.

He has been a notable campaigner against austerity, gaining a big following on social media and even starting his own podcast.

Stars from the world of entertainment also sent their best wishes.

Chocolat author Joanne Harris wrote: “Thinking tonight of Harryslaststand, a firebrand and a hero,” while actor Adrian Lester described him as “an inspiration”.

The hashtag #IStandWithHarry trended on Wednesday morning as people continued to send their support.

John sent a string of updates on his father’s condition, describing his cough as “bone shattering” as he slept again on Wednesday afternoon.

Harry initially went in to hospital on Tuesday, tweeting himself before his son took over: “Bugger of a day, had a fall and now I am in hospital. It’s nothing just low blood pressure, but signing off for the next few hours.”

After the huge show of support for his father, John tweeted: “He sleeps and when he wakes for a moment I tell him about the love flowing out from Twitter. ‘tell them I love them all.”’

Harry Leslie Smith speaking at the Labour conference in 2014
Harry Leslie Smith speaking at the Labour conference in 2014 Photograph: Russell Hart/Alamy Stock Photo/Alamy Stock Photo

Updated

This is from Stefan Rousseau, the Political Association’s chief political photographer.

I missed this yesterday, but it is worth flagging it; it’s from Vytenis Andriukaitis, Lithuania’s European commissioner, who has managed in one tweet to have a go at both the European Research Group (pictured at the top, from yesterday’s ERG press conference) and Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, who implicitly compared the EU to the Soviet Union in his Tory conference speech. Andriukaitis was an anti-communist activist before the Soviet Union disbanded.

Carwyn Jones, the Welsh first minister, met Theresa May earlier today to discuss Brexit. Afterwards he posted this on Twitter.

According to Bloomberg, the EU summit planned for Sunday to sign off the withdrawal agreement “may not go ahead if the final part of the Brexit deal isn’t completed by Thursday morning”.

Lunchtime summary

  • Theresa May has been urged by Tory MPs to renegotiate her Brexit deal. At PMQs Andrew Rosindell, a committed Brexiter, told May:

I agree with the people of Romford who are deeply unhappy by the proposed EU deal, which they believe does not represent the Brexit they voted for. Will she now, even at this late stage, please think again and instead lead our country in a new direction completely cutting away the tentacles of the EU over our cherished island nation once and for all?

But Neil Parish, who backed remain in the referendum, also expressed concerns. He said the Irish backstop “threatens the integrity of the UK” and advised May to listen to concerns raised by MPs. May defended her plans.

  • May has said that, while the Irish backstop was in place, the UK government would keep Great Britain aligned to single market regulations, and not just Northern Ireland. The backstop would keep the whole of the UK in the customs union, but theoretically it would allow GB and NI to diverge in terms of regulations. May ruled this out. But she also stressed that she did not want to use the backstop anyway and that, if it were in place, it might only be for “a matter of months”. See 1.18pm.
  • May has told MPs that voting down her deal could leave to the UK staying in the EU (see 12.09pm) - but also that the UK will definitely leave the EU on 29 March next year (see 12.38pm.) These flatly contradictory statements came after Amber Rudd, the new work and pensions secretary, told the Today programme this morning that parliament would not allow a no deal Brexit. (See 9.18am.)
  • May has been accused by the DUP of removing from her Brexit deal a clause that would have given Northern Ireland the final say over regulatory divergence from Great Britain. Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader at Westminster, asked May about this line in the joint report (pdf) agreed between the UK and the EU in December.

In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland.

He asked why the same assurance was not in the withdrawal agreement. “Did she push the delete button?” May replied by saying that these were issues for the UK as a whole, and that the Northern Ireland assembly could not take these decisions because it was suspended. This is from BBC Northern Ireland’s Jayne McCormack.

  • May has warned Spain that Gibraltar will not be excluded from negotiations on the UK’s future relationship with the EU. She told MPs that she was negotiating a deal that “works for the whole UK family and that includes Gibraltar”.
  • May has hinted that a Home Office review of sex work could provide evidence to justify law banning buying sex. (See 12.36pm.)
  • John McDonnell has said that Labour should form a minority government if Theresa May fails to get her Brexit deal through the Commons.
  • Ken Clarke, the veteran Tory pro-European, has said he will back May’s Brexit plan. (See 11.04am.)
  • Amber Rudd, the new work and pensions secretary, has said she wants to change universal credit “to get cash into people’s hands earlier”. (See 10.38am.)
  • John Bercow has reprimanded a group of MPs for playing football in the House of Commons. As the Press Association reports, the speaker said the “historic” chamber should not be used for a kickabout, adding he had received “fulsome” letters of apology from three of the MPs involved. The SNP’s Hannah Bardell was filmed playing keepy-uppy with a football in the chamber and posing for photos with other MPs, including making use of the despatch boxes and Speaker’s chair, after the sitting had been adjourned on Tuesday. They had been due to play for the UK Women’s Parliamentary Football Club but had to cancel their first game as it was expected to clash with votes. Conservative former sports minister Tracey Crouch and Labour’s Alison McGovern, Louise Haigh and Stephanie Peacock were the other MPs kitted out in the Commons, with Bercow said to have given his permission. But today Bercow told MPs he did not approve the kickabout. He told MPs:

It has been brought to my attention that some football skills were displayed in the chamber yesterday evening after the House rose.

I am informed that the doorkeepers on duty told the members concerned that the chamber was not the place for this activity, however, those doorkeepers were advised that permission had been given.

Let me assure the House that that permission certainly did not come from me.

I have received gracious, indeed fulsome, letters of apology from (Crouch, Peacock and Haigh) in relation to this incident.

I think I can speak for us all when I say that our historic chamber should not be used for this type of activity and I gently remind colleagues if they are seeking to use the chamber outside of sitting hours beyond for the purpose of simply showing it to guests, frankly they should write to me asking for their request to be considered.

I have said what I have said, there are no hard feelings and I consider the matter to be closed.

Updated

Labour has just held a lobby briefing, and Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman said that Conservatives were “no longer able to govern” in the light of the DUP decision to withhold support in the Commons. But there was no indication that Labour would call for a vote of no confidence soon.

The spokesman said that Labour wanted to consider the deal that the government had negotiated, and then submit its “alternative Brexit plan” at the time of the meaningful vote. Under that party’s plan the UK would remain in “a comprehensive customs union” with the EU which would “make unnecessary largely any kind of backstop arrangement”.

That remains in line with Labour’s conference policy to oppose May’s deal if it fails the party’s tests first and then, if it fails to pass the Commons, to push for a general election.

Corbyn met Nicola Sturgeon on Tuesday to discuss Brexit, but the spokesman would not discuss whether Labour and the SNP talked about a confidence vote. The spokesman said they discussed “the need to oppose and defeat their [the government’s Brexit] plans in parliament” and “the absolute necessity of preventing a no deal outcome”.

The spokesman was also asked why Corbyn was not present in the Commons on Monday night, when in voting on amendments on the finance bill, the government came within five votes of defeat on a child poverty amendment after the DUP unexpectedly sided with the opposition. He said:

We don’t comment on detailed whipping arrangements, Jeremy had permission to be absent from parliament, the decision of the DUP was taken at the last moment.

When asked if Corbyn was absent because he was “too tired” by one reporter, the spokesman added:

I’m not getting in the details. Jeremy has an extremely ambitious work schedule which he carries out with extraordinary energy.

For those interested in the Theresa May/Ian Blackford exchanges, there is a beefed-up account in an update at 1.21pm. You have have to refresh the page to get the update to appear.

Speaking to journalists after PMQs, the prime minister’s spokesman doggedly insisted the confidence and supply arrangement that underpins her governing majority remains in place - despite the DUP apparently being on strike. “It’s published and I’m not aware of any change to its status,” he said.

Pressed further, the spokesman simply added: “It’s our position that the confidence and supply arrangement is still in effect”.

Asked about the £1bn-plus in extra resources the DUP was promised to seal the deal, he said:

The money that has been agreed and is being paid down through the normal estimates process is for the people of Northern Ireland.

This is from ITV’s Carl Dinnen.

No 10 may be right when it says that it has not lost votes because of lack of support from the DUP. But that is only because on some votes it has accepted opposition amendments.

This is from BuzzFeed’s Alex Wickham.

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, asked about Brexit and the UN report on poverty in the UK in his questions. Here is a summary from the PoliticsHome blog.

SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford asks if the PM was listening to Nicola Sturgeon when she met her yesterday.

The PM says yes she was.

Blackford earns a few boos when he says staying in the single market and customs union has some support in the House.

Bercow clips the distortion levels shouting ORDER! at noisy MPs.

Blackford notes the UN report about UK poverty and argues Brexit will only make it worse - as the PM shakes her head. He calls on her to “work together” with other parties to get a better deal.

Theresa May says the SNP position of keeping the UK in the single market and customs union would frustrate the decision of Brits to quit the EU.

She also says the SNP should listen to Scots who want to stay in the UK.

UPDATE: Here is more from the May/Blackford exchanges, from the Press Assocation.

Blackford referred to May meeting Nicola Sturgeon yesterday and said:

The first minister’s alternative is for the UK to stay in the single market and stay in the customs union and that is what we will not do.

May said that “of course” she heard Sturgeon, but that she would not be taking her advice. She said:

The first minister’s alternative is for the UK to stay in the single market and stay in the customs union and that is what we will not do.

Blackford said the situation was “exasperating” because the SNP’s alternative “at least has support in this place”. He referred to a UN report on poverty, highlighting how up to a quarter of people in the UK were living in poverty, and asked why May did not “recognise the scale of the challenge that Brexit is only going to make worse”. He went on:

For once start to listen - go back to Brussels, recognise we all have an interest in this. Let’s all work together to make sure we protect the interests of people in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK. Let’s make sure we go back and negotiate, let’s keep us in the single market and customs union.

May said it was the SNP that needed to listen to the people who had voted for Brexit and against independence. She said:

He says let’s work together on this issue but the position he and his party have would frustrate the will of the British people in relation to leaving the EU. He talks about protecting jobs and that is exactly what the deal we’re proposing does. He talks also about listening- well perhaps the SNP should listen to the people of Scotland who gave a very clear view that Scotland should remain in its most important economic market, the internal market if the UK.

Updated

What May said about Great Britain staying bound by single market rules during Irish backstop

This is what Theresa May said in PMQs about the UK as a whole maintaining single market regulations during the backstop.

She was responding to a question from the Conservative MP George Freeman, a former minister for life sciences. Freeman asked:

Isn’t the truth of the backstop as drafted that, if and as we were to exercise our regulatory freedom, whether in agrifood or in data protection, we would allow the EU to harden the border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Can the prime minister reassure me and seek reassurance in Brussels today that this draft doesn’t contain a trap that, if we dare to diverge, we undermine our union?

In reply May said:

First of all, if it is the case that it is necessary to have an interim arrangement to provide this guarantee in relation to this border in Northern Ireland, there are a number of ways in which that can be achieved: the backstop as identified in the protocol, the extension of the implementation period, or alternative arrangements. And work is being done on those.

What I also say to my right honourable friend is the backstop is intended to be a temporary arrangement, and for that limited period of time. If he just casts his mind to a practical thought about what could happen, if we were in the situation where the backstop had to be in place for a matter of months, for example, I think - and I think it would be right for this United Kingdom to give this commitment - that we would not be looking to diverge from regulations during that period, that we would ensure that we kept that free access for goods from Northern Ireland coming into Great Britain, as we have committed in the withdrawal agreement, in the text that is set out, and we had committed previously.

That would be, of course, a decision for us here. But what is important is that we have a means of ensuring that the backstop remains temporary. The best means of doing that is what we’re in at the moment - negotiating the future relationship, which will ensure that the backstop does, if it is ever used, remain temporary, and preferably is never used at all.

May has said before that she wants to ensure that the backstop does not create obstacles for Northern Ireland firms wanting to sell goods into Great Britain. (She did not give the same assurance for GB firms sending goods the other way across the Irish Sea.) Arguably that implied that she would keep GB in single market alignment with the EU during the backstop period, as well as in the customs union. But I think this is the first time she has been this explicit.

Updated

On the BBC’s Politics Live Andrew Neil is trying to get Liz Truss, the chief secretary to explain if Theresa May was right when she said voting down her deal could lead to the UK staying in the EU, or if May was right when she said the UK would definitely leave the EU on 29 March anyway. Truss’s answer is a bit waffly, and it sounds as if she is playing for time.

Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, says under the withdrawal agreement, the chairs of the arbitration panels set up to resolve differences will be chosen by lot. He knows the government is close to the gambling industry, but isn’t that taking it too far.

May says both sides get to recommend potential chairs for the arbitration panels.

Heidi Allen, a Conservative, asks about cystic fibrosis sufferers. She asks if May will work with the government to reduce the price of the drug these patients need.

May says the health department is working on this. It has made an offer to the drug company, Vertex. She says she hopes there will be an agreement.

Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader at Westminster, says the joint report agreed with the EU in December said Northern Ireland would have the final say on whether or not it could diverge from single market rules. That has been deleted from the withdrawal agreement. Did May delete that?

May says these are decisions for the UK as a whole. She says the joint report referred to decisions by the Northern Ireland assembly. She says sadly that is still suspended.

May suggests UK as a whole would comply with single market regulations while backstop in place

May says, if the backstop had to be in place for a few months, it would be right for the UK to commit not to diverging from EU regulations.

That would stop a regulatory border going up between Northern Ireland and GB, she suggests (because, if they had the same regulations, then there would be no need for compliance checks).

That would be a decision for parliament, she says.

  • May suggests, if UK were to implement backstop, GB as well as Northern Ireland would remain bound by single market regulations. Under the text of the agreement, GB would remain in the customs union during the backstop, but it would not have to be bound by single market rules in the way Northern Ireland would. But May is saying it would agree to that voluntarily.

Updated

Esther McVey, the Brexiter former work and pensions secretary, ask May for an assurance that the UK will leave the EU next March.

May says the UK will leave on 29 March.

That flatly contradicts what she was telling Jeremy Corbyn only a few minutes ago. (See 12.09am.)

Updated

May hints that Home Office review of sex work could provide evidence to justify law banning buying sex

Gavin Shuker, the Labour MP, says the UK is becoming a more attractive place for sex traffickers because more neighbouring countries have introduced laws banning buying sex.

May says the Home Office has provided funds for a study into sex work in England and Wales. An evidence base is vital before the law changes. This review will be concluded next spring.

  • May hints that Home Office review of sex work could provide evidence to justify law banning buying sex.

Sir Nicholas Soames, a Conservative, asks May if she will tell Jean-Claude Juncker when she meets him tonight that the UK will retain the closest possible relationship with the EU after Brexit.

May says she is happy to give that assurances. That makes sense for the UK and for the EU, she says.

PMQs - Snap verdict

PMQs - Snap verdict: That was May’s best PMQs exchange with Corbyn for quite some time. In recent weeks he has frequently had her on the back foot on this topic - and today’s entire 40 minutes of PMQs might be a lot more uncomfortable for May on Brexit then her ding-dong with Corbyn, judging from what’s being said as I write - but today she got the better of the Labour leader relatively easily. He had good points to make about the cost of extending the transition, and the actual time allowed for the trade negotiation only being about a year, but he tripped up with his fifth question, when he muddled up a customs border down the Irish Sea (which is not in the withdrawal agreement) with a regulatory border (which is). It was a fairly basic mistake, obvious to anyone with only GCSE level Brexitology, and all the more surprising because this issue has dominated Brexit news coverage in recent weeks. May couldn’t believe her luck. The complaint that Corbyn hasn’t read the 560-page text in full is a cheap and shallow one (no sensible person in his position would), but his customs error meant that when May made this point repeatedly, it had some force. Her summary of the charge against Labour’s stance on Brexit in response to the final answer was particularly crisp (which is not to say that the case against her Brexit stance isn’t much more damning), but she also got through today because she actually made news. In her response to Corbyn’s first question, she specifically rejected what Amber Rudd was saying on Today this morning and revived her claim that voting against her deal could lead to the UK staying in the EU.

Updated

Corbyn says May’s government got us into this mess. May knows full well that, with a European parliament not in place until the summer, the negotiations for a future trade deal will have less than a year. May says no PM would agree a customs border down the Irish Sea. But the backstop would create that.

May says Corbyn is wrong. The EU originally argued for a Northern Ireland only customs territory. But the EU gave way. It is even clearer that Corbyn does not know what is in the agreement. Never mind a second referendum; Corbyn hasn’t got a first clue.

Corbyn says there is an entire protocol referring just to Northern Ireland. May did not discuss this with the DUP. This deal is a failure. It fails May’s red lines, and fails Labour’s six tests. And it fails to impress the new Northern Ireland minister, who said just before he was appointed that the deal was dead. Isn’t it the case parliament will reject the deal. If May can’t get it through, she should make way for those who will.

May says the public gave her an instruction. All Corbyn wants to do is play party politics. He is opposing a deal he hasn’t read, he is promising a deal he cannot negotiate, and he is telling leave voters one thing, and remain voters another. Whatever Corbyn say, she will act in the national interest.

Corbyn says the new Brexit secretary is not going to Brussels. Is the post now just ceremonial?

He asks how much it would cost the UK to prolong the transition.

May says they are talking about the Irish backstop. She says she wants to avoid a hard border by getting the future relationship in place. There might be a backstop. Or there might be an extension of the implementation period. But there could also be alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border.

Corbyn says the UK will have to pay. The Canada deal took seven years, the Singapore one eight years. Does May think she is fooling anyone when she says a final relationship will be decided by December 2020.

May says the problem Corbyn has with this deal is he has not even read it. He is opposed to any deal, no matter how good it is. But he will accept any EU deal, whoever bad. And he would use the transition period to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement. He says there might be a referendum. But he does not even know what the question is.

Corbyn ask if last week’s text was the final text.

May says the package is in two parts. The withdrawal agreement has been agreed in principle. But there is also the future relationship document. The whole lot will be discussed by the EU on Sunday.

May revives claim that voting down her deal could lead to UK staying in EU

Jeremy Corbyn also backs the campaign to get more women to stand for parliament.

Now ministers have confirmed leaving the EU with no deal is not an option, will May confirm there are no circumstances in which that could happen?

May says, if her deal is voted down, there will be more uncertainty, “or it could risk no Brexit at all”.

  • May revives claim that voting down her deal could lead to UK staying in EU.

Andrew Rosindell, a Conservative, says what drives him is a love of country. So he agrees with his Romford constituents, who are “deeply unhappy” with May’s Brexit deal. It is not the Brexit they voted for. Will May think again and lead the country in a new direction?

May says people voted to end free movement, to end the jurisdiction of the ECJ, and to stop sending vast sums of money to the EU. But it remains a close trading partner. She says she wants to ensure the UK keeps having a close trading relationship with the EU. Rosindell is a champion of the UK. But he is a champion of the Commonwealth too, and those links will be enhanced after Brexit.

Theresa May says today is the centenary of the Act that allowed women to stand for public office. She says she is delighted that the first woman in the Commons was a Conservative.

PMQs

PMQs is about to start.

Here is the line up.

PMQs
PMQs Photograph: HoC

John McDonnell's Reuters Q&A - Summary

When John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, was speaking at Reuters this morning, he was not talking from a text. Reuters has a good write-up. Here are some of the key points.

  • McDonnell claimed that the current situation in parliament, where the government cannot win votes because it has lost the support of the DUP, was unsustainable. He said:

We just can’t go on like this. We just cannot go on with this instability, uncertainty that there is in government, day by day and sometimes hour by hour.

  • He said that an “overwhelming majority” of MPs were opposed to a no deal Brexit and that “here is a will in Parliament to prevent that happening.”
  • He said Labour was working on amendments to the government’s Brexit motion that would rule out a no deal Brexit. He said:

What we’re trying to do now is craft our amendments to when the government comes back with its proposals that will give the opportunity for the House to indicate that it will avoid a no deal at all costs and I think there’s a vast majority of MPs who would support that and make sure, whatever happens, that ‘no deal’ is taken off the agenda altogether. I don’t think the current government can secure that sort of compromise either within its own party or across the house, that’s why I think the Labour Party can.

He also said that, if Labour would not block a no deal Brexit that way, there would be “a war of attrition” with legislation.

We could be into a situation of a war of attrition within parliament of amendments to legislation taking place and uncertainty continuing.

  • He said he did not think Labour Brexiters would rebel and support the government in the vote on Theresa May’s deal.
  • He criticised the Labour campaign during the EU referendum for sharing platforms with people from other parties. He said:

I argued continuously not to have joint platforms with other political parties ... If you went on a cross-party platform on a remain campaign, you were looked upon as the establishment. I think we would have been better ploughing a very strong Labour furrow in those Labour constituencies.

In the 2016 referendum Jeremy Corbyn avoided sharing platforms with remainers like David Cameron. But some Labour figures from the official Labour campaign, Labour In for Britain, which was led by Alan Johnson, did make joint appearances with Tory remainers.

John McDonnell
John McDonnell Photograph: John McDonnell/Reuters

Updated

Here is Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, making exactly the same point about Amber Rudd’s Brexit comment as the Labour party. (See 9.37am.)

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, told the German parliament today that she was opposed to letting the UK decide unilaterally when it existed the backstop. She said:

We have placed value, and I think this is right, on the fact that Britain cannot decide unilaterally when it ends the state of the customs union, but that Britain must decide this together with the EU.

Ken Clarke backs Theresa May's Brexit deal

Ken Clarke, the Conservative former chancellor and leading pro-European, has said he would vote for Theresa May’s Brexit deal. He told Sky’s All Out Politics:

I will vote for this deal. It’s a bit of a dog’s breakfast, and I think if [Theresa May] hadn’t made so many efforts to appease the really hardline Eurosceptics in my party, she could have got a slightly one ... But I’ll settle for this. It keeps the borders as they are, it keeps everything continuous for British business, industry, investment, and it paves the way for the transition period. Because the serious negotiations start now, really, about what are the longterm arrangements going to be, which will affect all our children and grandchildren.

But Clarke also said that he would vote for amendments to soften the deal. And he predicted that it would be rejected by the Commons in the first vote. (There is a widespread assumption that the deal will be rejected in the first vote, possibly on Monday 10 December, with a second vote following later after a renegotiation of some sort with Brussels.)

Arguably Clarke is the most anti-Brexit Tory MP in the Commons. He was the only one to vote against the article 50 bill at second reading. Number 10 might have been expecting him to vote against the deal, so his endorsement is a bonus of sorts, although Brexiters will assume that, if Clarke is backing the deal, it must be flawed.

Ken Clarke
Ken Clarke Photograph: Sky News

Rudd says she wants to change universal credit 'to get cash into people’s hands earlier'

Most of the Amber Rudd interview on the Today programme this morning was devoted to welfare. John Humphrys, the interviewer, pointed out that she is the fifth work and pensions secretary in two years. Here are the main points she made.

  • Rudd said she wanted to change the way universal credit works “to get cash into people’s hands earlier”. She told the programme:

I’m looking at what we can do to get cash into people’s hands earlier. That’s where I acknowledge that there is a problem.

She was specifically referring to the aspect of universal credit which means people normally wait five weeks before they get their first payment. She said that under changes already introduced people could get a loan equivalent to their first month’s payments when they applied, but she implied she wanted to go further.

I think the biggest problem is that has been identified already, and some adjustments have been made, is quite simply about getting cash in people’s hands as soon as they need it. A lot of people who are on universal credit who need the money that universal credit provides don’t have any savings. We need to do better at getting them the cash earlier.

The Labour MP Chris Byrant said he was infuriated by Rudd’s comments on this.

  • Rudd said she would consider changing the way universal credit is paid, from the currently monthly basis. It is paid in monthly instalments, not weekly instalments, so that it mirrors how most people get their wages. But there have been complaints that this disadvantages people not used to budgeting. When this was put to Rudd, she said:

I think that is something that I should look at, and I will.

  • She criticised the UN rapporteur who produced a damning report on the government’s welfare policies last week for questioning the motives of ministers. She said:

What I resent about [Philip Alston’s] approach is the motives he attributes to us. Our motives are to be constructive, to be helpful, to be efficient and to be compassionate.

Here is our story from last week summarising what the report says.

  • She said that she thought overall that universal credit was “a tremendous force for good in this country”.

Political journalists have some wildly different interpretations of what to make of Amber Rudd’s Brexit intervention this morning. I posted my take on it earlier (see 9.18am). Here are some other views.

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

From my colleague Jessica Elgot

I’m with Jess on this one. If you are ever trying to work why a politician is saying something, it’s always best to start with the default assumption that it’s because that’s what they think. This doesn’t always provide the right explanation, but it is true more often than people assume.

From the Spectator’s Katy Balls

From Sky’s Tom Rayner

From ITV’s Robert Peston

From the Telegraph’s Jack Maidment

From Sky’s Beth Rigby

Updated

Speaking at an event at the Institute for Government this morning, the Tory Brexiter Sir Bernard Jenkin confirmed that he would vote against Theresa May’s Brexit deal. He said:

I will vote against the deal as it is.

A no deal Brexit would “absolutely” be better for the UK, he said.

Actually, the effects on trade would be pretty marginal. The idea that a customs union is somehow an optimal trading relationship is a myth we have to bust.

MPs will today debate the new fisheries bill, which provides a framework for the industry post-Brexit and which the SNP has long described as a “power grab”, saying that the Scottish government should be negotiating on behalf of Scottish fisherman.

Labour is tabling a series of amendments to the bill calling on environment secretary Michael Gove to use existing powers to give small fleets a bigger chunk of the UK’s fishing quota, pointing out the inequity of quota distribution between smaller boats and the large multi-national-owned trawlers.

Meanwhile, the question remains a vexed one for Scottish Tories, who are still concerned about the trade-off between access and trade, and about the possibility of an extended transition period. Last week their group of 13 MPs wrote to Theresa May to demand that the UK does not stay in the EU’s common fisheries policy after the post-Brexit transition period ends.

Asked about reports that France is pushing for guarantees that it will be allowed access to British fishing waters in return for zero-tariff trade on goods, Scottish Conservative MP for Banff and Buchan David Duguid told BBC Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland today that the prime minister had assured him this was not acceptable. He added:

Certainly the position of myself and Scottish Conservative colleagues is that that must be resisted and that we must take our position as an independent coastal state in 2020 with the full sovereignty and control over our waters that that entails.

Rudd has exposed May's 'my deal or no deal' claim as false choice, Labour says

Here is Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, on Amber Rudd’s comments this morning. (See 9.18am.) He said:

Amber Rudd seems to have ignored Number 10’s spin by admitting that parliament would stop a no deal Brexit.

If the prime minister’s deal is rejected then MPs will not sit back and allow us to crash out of the EU without an agreement. Parliament will take back control.

After these comments from Amber Rudd, it’s time for the government to drop the false choice between a bad deal and no deal, and to come forward with a plan that can command the majority support of parliament.

Updated

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, is speaking at a Reuters Live event this morning. There is a live feed here.

I will post a summary of his speech when I’ve seen the text. He is now taking questions.

As Reuters reports, McDonnell has also said that parliament would not support a no deal Brexit. He said:

What’s coming out of it now, I think, is a lowest common denominator approach which is this at the moment a majority, by the looks of it, not to support the prime minister’s deal that she’s putting forward although that might change. It’s difficult to predict, but also I think an overwhelming majority to oppose anything that smacks of being no deal.

Amber Rudd says MPs won't allow no deal Brexit, contradicting May

A week ago today, after the five-hour cabinet meeting that approved her Brexit withdrawal agreement, Theresa May gave a short speech outside Number 10 that said, if it did not pass, there were just two alternatives: leaving the EU with no deal, or not leaving at all. She said:

When you strip away the detail the choice before us is clear. This deal, which delivers on the vote of the referendum, which brings us back control of our money, laws and borders, ends free movement, protects jobs, security and our union, or leave with no deal, or no Brexit at all.

Here last five words seemed to be an admission that a second referendum, which could lead to a vote to remain in the EU, was an option. She seemed to regard this as a mistake and in the Commons the following day, in a three-hour statement to MPs, she effectively retracted this, repeatedly ruling out a second referendum, saying the UK would leave on 29 March next year come what may.

All of this is worth repeating to illustrate the significance of what Amber Rudd said on the Today programme this morning. In her first interview as the new work and pensions secretary, she mostly discussed welfare (more on that soon), but she was also asked about Brexit, and she said that she expected May’s deal to pass the Commons. Referring the Damian Collins, the remain-voting Tory MP on the programme earlier who explained why he could not back May’s plan, she said:

As Damian [Collins] said, if it doesn’t get through, anything could happen. The Brexiteers may lose their Brexit, there will be different amendments that will be followed up on, and I think that is not going to be good for the country.

Rudd was then asked what what alternative she would prefer - a no deal Brexit, or another referendum. She replied:

It is my view that parliament, the House of Commons, will stop no deal, as Damian Collins already said earlier. There isn’t a majority in the House of Commons to allow that to take place.

Asked if that meant she would back another referendum, she replied:

I don’t think we are looking at another referendum. I think that what will happen is people will take a careful look over the abyss, MPs of all parties, and consider what they think is in the best interests of the whole country. And I think the likelihood is, despite what people say, that the withdrawal agreement will get through.

This is significant for three reasons.

First, Rudd is directly contradicting May’s current assertion, which is that if her deal fails to pass, the only alternative is a no deal Brexit.

Second, Rudd is explicitly saying MPs would not allow a no deal Brexit to happen. She may well be wrong about this; the Brexiters believe that, with article 50 triggered, and the EU Withdrawal Act on the statute book, the UK is now certain to leave anyway unless a new PM intervenes with Brussels to stop article 50. Without bringing down the government, it is hard to see how backbenchers and the opposition can stop a no deal Brexit in these circumstances. But what Rudd is saying about parliament not allowing a no deal Brexit is exactly the same as what Jeremy Corbyn (here, for example), Nicola Sturgeon (here, for example) and other opposition leaders have been saying, and her support will boost their case.

And, third, Rudd is implicitly backing the case for a second referendum in the event of parliament voting down May’s deal - although she did not say so directly. But she did refer to Damian Collins, and he told the programme earlier:

If we couldn’t get an agreement and we were stuck in a situation where it was a deal we don’t want or the cliff edge ... I don’t think as parliament we could just stand back and watch the country fall off the edge of a cliff without asking the people whether that was the step they wanted to take.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9am: John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, gives a speech at Reuters.

9.30am: Karen Bradley, the Northern Ireland secretary, gives evidence to the Commons Northern Ireland affairs committee.

12pm: Theresa May faces Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs.

After 1pm: MPs debate the second reading of the fisheries bill.

4.30pm (UK time): Theresa May meets Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels.

As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary after PMQs and another when I wrap up, around 5.30pm.

Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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