Amazon will kickoff its longest-ever Prime Day deals event Tuesday, with analysts expecting a step-up in spending from U.S. shoppers to match the sales event. Amazon stock was slightly higher in early trading.
The technology giant is promising millions of discounts on products across its e-commerce platform starting July 8 and ending July 11, double the duration of last year's Amazon Prime Day. Americans will spend $23.8 billion across the four days, according to projections published Monday by Adobe.
That would mark a 24% increase from the comparable period last year. The projections are based more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retailers, Adobe said. Retail competitors such as Walmart and Target have for several years offered competing July discount days.
The extended Prime Day comes as Americans are grappling with concerns about tariffs and the broader economy. Amazon Chief Executive Andy Jassy told CNBC last week that he expects shoppers with be excited about the longer discount window, "especially at this time, where people are still a little worried about what's going to happen with trade and continuing to have lower prices."
Biggest Amazon Prime Day Deals
Adobe is forecasting that U.S. retailers will offer discounts most commonly between 10% and 24%. Adobe expects apparel to see the biggest discounts, followed by electronics, televisions, appliances and toys.
About 52.5% of shopping will take place on a mobile device, per Adobe's forecast, a record high as app-based platforms benefit from what the analysts called "impulse shopping."
Another factor to watch: generative AI powered shopping. Amazon last year launched an AI chatbot called Rufus that helps answer questions and direct shoppers toward products. As more shoppers and retailers test the technology, Adobe expects significant growth for sales driven by AI, after noticing the first "material surge" in such shopper behavior during last year's holiday shopping season.
Increased Competition
Amazon rivals are also launching deals event this week. The Walmart Deals event is promising six days of discounts, also starting Tuesday. Target's Circle Week launched on Sunday.
Still, analysts with eMarketer project that Amazon will capture more than 75% of the $17.2 billion that U.S. shoppers spend online during the four-day extended Prime Day event. That's up from about 60% of total U.S. e-commerce sales during last year's two-day event.
"With the extended time frame, Amazon will recapture demand that spilled over to competitors from shoppers who missed out on its deals," eMarketer analyst Sky Canaves wrote in a June research report.
What Prime Day Means For Amazon Stock
Meanwhile, analysts with Bank of America project Amazon could ring up $21 billion in total sales over the four days, up 60% from last year's estimates. That includes $11.5 billion in direct sales for Amazon and $10 billion for third-party sellers that use the platform.
To BofA Securities analyst Justin Post, the extended deals window is a positive sign for the state of Amazon's e-commerce operations.
"Extending the savings window suggests that Amazon has greater retail logistics capacity to offer promotions, and that inventory availability is not a constraint, despite tariff concerns," Post wrote to clients last week.
Post rates Amazon stock a buy with a price objective of 248. One risk to watch, Post added, is that a longer Prime Day window could weigh on third-quarter margins.
Amazon stock was up a fraction near 224.21 in recent premarket action on the stock market today.
Shares of the tech giant are ahead roughly 2% year-to-date. Shares have bounced back from a steep spring slump after the U.S. eased tariffs on Chinese goods. Amazon is expected to report second-quarter results later this month.
The IBD Stock Checkup tool, meanwhile, shows Amazon stock holds an IBD Composite Rating of 93 out of a best-possible 99. The score combines five separate proprietary ratings into one rating. The best growth stocks have a Composite Rating of 90 or better.
