JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth reaffirmed Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) as his “Best Idea” in the U.S. e-commerce sector.
Following an analysis of second-quarter Department of Commerce data, Anmuth highlighted the company’s significant market share gains and strong delivery execution.
Amazon’s accelerating sales growth and expanding Prime ecosystem continue to outpace the broader market, positioning the company for long-term dominance, he explained in a research note issued on Wednesday.
Also Read: Amazon’s AI-Powered Cost Cuts, Labor Gains And Record Prime Day Drive Analyst’s Bullish Outlook
Here are a few notes from his latest report:
- U.S. e-commerce sales grew 5.3% year-over-year in second-quarter, compared to 5.6% in first-quarter
- It was the 10th straight quarter of market share gains as penetration rose 17 basis points to 21.9% of adjusted retail sales.
- Amazon outpaced the broader market, with global 1P sales accelerating to 10% foreign-exchange-neutral Y/Y from 6% in first-quarter
- Global 3P sales spiked 10% foreign-exchange-neutral Y/Y from 7% in the first quarter.
- Essentials made up about one-third of units sold
- 30% year-over-year growth in U.S. same-day or one-day delivery units
- Amazon’s U.S. e-commerce share jumped 202 basis points Y/Y to 46.8% in second-quarter
- Projected share is expected to climb to 47.4% in third-quarter (+163bps Y/Y), 49.2% in fourth-quarter (+221bps Y/Y), and 48.2% in 2026 (+78bps Y/Y).
What’s Next: Anmuth forecast U.S. e-commerce growth of 4.6% Y/Y in third-quarter; 4.4% in fourth-quarter; and 6.4% in 2026.
Amazon’s U.S. GMV (ex-physical stores) is expected to grow 8% Y/Y in the third quarter; 9% in the fourth quarter; and 8% in 2026. Long-term, U.S. e-commerce penetration could rise from ~23% in 2024 to 40%+, he added.
Price Action: Amazon stock is down 1.02% at $221.56 at last check on Thursday.
Read Next:
Image: Shutterstock
