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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Ros Taylor

Am I bothered?


Does the very thought of a ballot box bring you out in a rash? Photograph: Matthew Fearn/PA
Are you motivated enough to work out whether or not you're motivated enough to vote on May 4? If not, or if that sentence flummoxed you, then don't bother to read on.

If, on the other hand, you feel your democratic impulses are susceptible to a quantitative analysis - rather than, say, whether it's tipping down outside - then Dr Cliff Arnall of Cardiff University has the equation for you. Sceptics should know that Dr Arnall is also the man who calculated that January 24 is the worst day of the year, May 18 is the best day to change your life and April 21 is the day to get another mention in the papers for your research. (Only joking, Cliff.)

Here goes. First of all, rate on a scale of one to five your level of personal contact from political parties (C), your belief that the parties can deal with the issues (I), your parents' interest in politics (P), your perception of whether or not your vote will count (V), your sense of voting as a duty (D) and the closeness of the national contest (N). (Given these are local elections, you should probably ignore the last one.)

Then judge on a scale of 1-3 how safe your own council is (S), with 1 meaning that any party could gain overall control and 3 that the result is a foregone conclusion.

Lastly, put the figures into the equation (C+I+P+(VxD)+N)/S=X. X - geddit? - is your level of motivation to vote.

Over 15: Very likely to vote

10-14: Will vote if you can make time for it

5-9: Believe in the right to vote but are unsure whether it makes a difference

Under 5: Cannot see why you should bother

Some readers might feel that anyone scoring less than five ought to be removed to Turkmenistan, but Dr Arnall would probably not agree. He does, after all, specialise in confidence-building and stress management rather than politics.

Incidentally, the MySociety team conducted an empirical and arguably more interesting survey of why people didn't vote at the last election, which is archived here. Go figure. Actually, don't.

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