Wales have been trying to fathom out why they start a series or tournament with the speed of a worn-out tortoise yet finish like an electric greyhound. A trip to Rome would not ordinarily concern a side who have not lost against Italy for 10 years, even with Conor O’Shea injecting the Azzurri with his effervescence, but coming first up the focus is on winning, not on running amok as they did in the final round of the 2015 Six Nations at the Olympic Stadium.
Since Warren Gatland took charge of Wales at the end of 2007, they have won four of their nine opening matches compared with seven on the final weekend. They have lost five times in Cardiff in total during that period, three of the defeats coming on the first weekend of the Six Nations. The one previous occasion they began in Rome, in 2003, they lost and at home to Italy at the start three years ago they laboured to a 23-15 victory.
Wales are never more vulnerable than when starting out, as they showed again in November when Australia, reeling from 3-0 whitewashes by England and New Zealand, turned up in Cardiff and won with embarrassing ease. And so they have opted for experience against Italy, with none of the seven new caps in the squad making the matchday 23. Victory before the meeting with England at the Principality Stadium next weekend is everything.
Wales are looking to evolve their playing style, loosening strings after years of austerity, but they will play with their familiar economy initially, dowsing Italy’s early enthusiasm by kicking for territory, establishing a lead and then opening out with the attacking option of the outside‑half Sam Davies on the bench.
They may have won their three other autumn internationals after being exposed by Australia, but they were ponderous in possession with a lack of basic skills and awareness wrecking moves. Despite a wealth of Lions experience, Wales are not fancied by the bookmakers to finish in the top two, a prediction that will come true unless they find ways of involving their wings George North and Liam Williams more and putting them into space.
One reason why the transition from prescriptive to reactive has been slow is that Wales were comfortable playing to orders. As they showed against Australia, they struggle when confronted by the unexpected, a legacy of relative neglect over the years at the lower levels of the game. A country which once bred instinctive players became the land of the unthinking.
The installation of Alun Wyn Jones as captain should quicken the change. He was absent against Australia when it took the half-time break and instructions from the coaches for Wales to adjust their tactics and the second-row, while high on emotion, is self-reliant. While the threat of Italy, despite the influence of their No8 Sergio Parisse and a reasonably strong set piece, should be contained, even if it takes an hour, England six days later will demand far more of them mentally.
“Our selection has been respectful to Italy,” said Jones, the only survivor from the last Wales team to lose against Italy, in 2007. “There have been cries for more changes and the blooding of youngsters. That will happen in time, I’m sure of it, but do we want to expose them to a potential banana skin? In times of transition, it can be difficult when you lose senior players but we are strong on experience.”
Jones’s predecessor, Sam Warburton, still has a crucial role to play as Wales’s source of turnover ball, but they have to start to make better use of it. Scott Williams at inside-centre has the handling and passing skills to get the ball wide, but he needs the ball early to have an influence. Wales in recent years have tended to be at their most menacing when reacting to a setback: they have not endured back-to-back defeats in the Six Nations since 2010, but as England’s players have taken greater responsibility, so the men in red need to follow. Rome is a starting point.
