Thanks for your input President Hollande, but we really like this offer for our power business from General Electric. That seems to the view from the boardroom of Alstom. The directors have ignored a prod from the French government not to be hasty and to consider what Siemens of Germany has to offer. Instead they have approved a €12.4bn (£10.2bn) offer from GE of the US and given Siemens a month to respond. Nothing is certain but GE is plainly now a strong favourite. First, cash-strapped Alstom, which after exiting power generation would concentrate on building high-speed trains, is already talking about paying a break fee to GE should an approved deal not proceed.
Second, Siemens will struggle to match GE's offer since it is muttering about paying in part with its own rail business. In Alstom's shoes, hard cash has more appeal than an asset it doesn't need.
Third, Alstom clearly feels the French government's ability to override shareholders' wishes is weak. Wednesday's statement said a committee of independent directors would take into consideration the interests of all stakeholders – "including the French state" – but it read like a sop.
The French government is in a tough corner. It could lobby harder for Siemens, but what if the Germans don't come up with a competitive offer? And how to explain to voters that GE, rather than Siemens, would probably create more jobs in France? Expect pragmaticism to prevail and Hollande to concede that GE wouldn't be such a bad owner after all.
