Afternoon summary
- Donald Tusk, president of the European council, has said that getting a Brexit withdrawal deal agreed by the autumn of next year will be a “furious race against time”. (See 4.38pm.)
- Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has said that David Davis, the Brexit secretary, was wrong to say a UK-EU trade deal could be signed just after Brexit. (See 5.08pm.)
- David Davis has scrambled to salvage relations with Brussels after he was accused of damaging trust in the Brexit talks by making inflammatory comments over the status of Britain’s promises. As Daniel Boffey reports, the Brexit secretary engaged in urgent telephone diplomacy on Tuesday in an attempt to persuade Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s Brexit coordinator, that the UK government’s word could be depended upon. Brussels has been deeply irritated by Davis’s claim over the weekend that the UK’s concessions in an agreement struck last week with the EU to move talks on were merely a statement of intent without legal backing.
- Anna Soubry, a leading pro-European Tory, has urged ministers to “”reach out to the remainers” and compromise ahead of a vote on the EU withdrawal bill tomorrow where the government faces possible defeat. Ministers could lose because some Tories like Soubry are planning to back an amendment tabled by Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, intended to give MPs a truly meaningful vote on the final Brexit deal. Speaking in this afternoon’s debate, Soubry said:
What I would urge all members of Her Majesty’s Government, especially those in the most important of positions, is please now reach out to the remainers - often called now former remainers, the 48%.
Don’t tar us with the same paintbrush that you yourself may have used for many, many years, and try and build a consensus. And that means the government has got to give a little bit more than it so far has given.
Speaking on the World at One, Grieve said that he had enough votes to defeat the government (opposition MPs are expected to support him) and that he would push his amendment to a vote tomorrow if the government did not compromise. He said:
I don’t see any possibility of my backing down on this at all. I will vote for my amendment. I don’t know whether I will be successful or not but I think I must push it forward. I don’t want to defeat the government. It is not my desire to do this, I would much prefer the government to listen to what we have been saying, accept the amendment, and, at a later stage, the government can always correct it if it wants to.
In a hint that the government may back down, the prime minister’s spokesman told journalists:
The government position has been throughout that we are listening to MPs and we are having conversations with them, and where we think the legislation can be improved, we are prepared to take it on board. I think what the MPs are asking for is clarity. We are looking at the amendment and will respond to it in due course.
There will be several votes when the debate ends tonight at around 9.10pm, but the most awkward vote for the government is scheduled for tomorrow.
- The boss of the US civil aviation regulator has urged the UK to reveal by next month whether it will remain in a key safety body after Brexit. As the Press Association reports, Michael Huerta of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) flew from Washington to London on Tuesday for talks with transport secretary Chris Grayling before meetings with European Union officials in Brussels on Wednesday. He told reporters he wants to “bring a level of urgency” to the UK’s deliberations over what safety standards it will meet for the manufacture of aviation products and aircraft maintenance. The competency of UK firms is currently accepted by the FAA because the UK is a member of the EU’s European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which has a bilateral agreement with the US. Huerta said this status “essentially evaporates” with Brexit in March 2019 and the UK must decide whether to adopt the framework of EASA or create its own standards.
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Peter Foster, the Daily Telegraph’s Europe editor, has a good Twitter thread on the state of play in the Brexit talks. It starts here.
.@MichelBarnier : "no possibility" of a UK-EU trade being concluded by #Brexit in March 2019. This is not news, even to @DavidDavisMP
— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) December 12, 2017
So what can UK realistically get next year?
And does that tell us about UK strategy?
1/thread
Michel Barnier's press conference - Summary
The (short) Michel Barnier press conference is now available here, as a video playback, on the European Union’s website. Here are is a summary of all the key points.
- Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said the David Davis, the Brexit secretary, was wrong to say a UK-EU trade deal could be signed just after Brexit. (See 5.08pm.)
- He said the EU would not accept any “backtracking” by the UK.
Even if the European Council does recognise sufficient progress on Friday, we will have a final agreement only if the political commitments taken by Theresa May in the name of the British government last Friday are respected and we will be vigilant. We will not accept any backtracking from the UK from commitments in the joint report. All our points of agreement our now closed.
- He said that the UK-EU Brexit deal agreed last week had to be translated into “legally binding and precise language” so as to be ready for the withdrawal agreement. This is necessary because the withdrawal agreement will be an international treaty, unlike the document agreed last week.
- He said he wanted to get a draft of the withdrawal agreement ready “early” next year.
- He said he expected to start negotiating the transition deal in February.
- He said the UK still had to clarify what it wanted from the final deal.
Theresa May has restored the Conservative whip to Anne Marie Morris after the MP apologised again for using the N-word at an event earlier this year, my colleague Rowena Mason reports.
Back in the Commons Steve Baker, the Brexit minister, is responding on behalf of the government. He started by saying he had 134 amendments to respond to.
Responding to Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general who used his speech earlier to back amendments that would curb the power of ministers to pass secondary legislation under the bill (see 4pm), Baker said that ministers did want to address these concerns. He said that he was not in a position to propose concessions today, but that he was willing to have further meetings with a view to possible changes to the bill at report stage.
In an intervention Grieve said the government had to come back with “something that tempers the starkness of these powers”. But he said if ministers considered the issue in its entirety, it might be possible for them to come up with a solution.
Barnier says David Davis wrong to say UK-EU trade deal could be signed just after Brexit
In his interview on the Andrew Marr Show on Sunday (pdf) David Davis, the Brexit secretary, suggested that the UK might be able to sign a trade deal with with EU one minute, or even one second, after it leaves the EU at 11pm on 29 March 2019. It will not be able to sign one before then because it has to wait until it is a third country. But soon after that it will be able to sign the full caboodle (my word, not his), he argued.
Marr said it might not be possible to agree a trade deal within eight months. What would happen if the trade deal was not ready when the withdrawal deal was agreed, Marr asked. Davis replied:
I don’t agree. I mean it’s more like a year than 8 months in truth, but because bear in mind we can’t sign this until after March, until after we actually leave. Maybe one minute after we leave, or one second after we leave, but the formal technicalities we can’t do that. But we’ve got about a year and that was actually why this week was important.
When Michel Barnier was asked at the press conference if it would be possible to sign a trade deal on 30 March 2019, he said Davis was wrong. Barnier said:
David Davis, of course, has experience of European matters. We were ministers of European affairs at the same time ... he knows perfectly well what is possible and what is not possible. What we are dealing with in the negotiation is precisely the organisation of an orderly withdrawal, taking account of the future relationship.
In other words, by working seriously in a precise fashion without losing time, in October of next year, 2018, we can reach a treaty, a draft treaty which would then have to be ratified between October and March 2019, as at 29th March 2019, at midnight at 11pm UK time, the UK will become a third country. So we have less than a year to conclude an article 50 treaty. That will deal with the organisation of the orderly withdrawal, based henceforth on the joint report, an agreement on a possible transition period, and we will start negotiating the content of and framework for that as the council wishes as of February.
That will be the content of the treaty. I think that this treaty will be accompanied by a political declaration, and I dare say that is what David Davis is referring to, which will describe the framework for our future relationship. A political declaration. But it cannot be anything else. In technical, legal terms it simply is not possible to do anything else. And David Davis knows that full well.
So we will need more time, and that’s where the transition period could come in useful, to begin and conclude a negotiation on a free trade agreement. But we will need more time.
Tusk says getting Brexit deal by next autumn will be 'furious race against time'
Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has released the text of his open letter to EU leaders ahead of the European council starting on Thursday. He covers Brexit, of course, but only in the final paragraph (as if to make the point that Brexit is not an all-consuming priority) for the EU. And he claims that getting a withdrawal deal by the autumn will involve “a furious race against time”. He says:
The EU and UK negotiators have prepared a joint report on what has been agreed so far, and I think we have a satisfactory result on most issues. For that reason, and based on the recommendation by our chief negotiator, I have tabled guidelines which will signal, if you agree, that we are ready to move to the second phase, which will expand discussions to cover transition and the framework for the future relationship. The conclusion of the first phase of negotiations is moderate progress, since we only have ten months left to determine the transition period and our future relations with the UK. This will be a furious race against time, where again our unity will be key. And the experience so far has shown that unity is a sine qua non of an orderly Brexit.
Manfred Weber, the leader of the centre-right European People’s party (EPP) in the European parliament and an ally of Angela Merkel’s, has now used Twitter to say that David Davis’s comments on Sunday about the UK-EU Brexit deal being a “statement of intent” are “putting trust at risk”. Davis has retracted his comments, which he said were misunderstood, but EU leaders like Weber and Guy Verhofstadt (see 11.26am) are not letting him off lightly.
The first phase of #Brexit negotiations was meant to build trust. By downgrading this agreement to a statement of intent, the UK Government is putting our trust at risk. The EU 27 & UK must make it clear on Thursday that the agreement is binding for both sides. #EUCO pic.twitter.com/T9jqp5PbLc
— Manfred Weber (@ManfredWeber) December 12, 2017
The press conference is now over. I missed the opening, but here are some lines people have been reporting on Twitter. These are from the Express’s Nick Gutteridge and MLex’s Matthew Holehouse.
Barnier rebukes Davis: 'We will have a final agreement only if the political commitments taken by May in the name of the British Govt last Friday are respected and we will be vigilant. We will not accept any backtracking from the UK.'
— Nick Gutteridge (@nick_gutteridge) December 12, 2017
Barnier asked what he makes of David Davis' claim that a trade agreement can be signed under A218 in "one minute".
— Matthew Holehouse (@mattholehouse) December 12, 2017
"He knows perfectly well what is possible and what is not possible."
Barnier emphasises that framework agreement will be "a political declaration - it cannot be anything else. David Davis knows full that well."
— Matthew Holehouse (@mattholehouse) December 12, 2017
Barnier says David Davis wrong about possibility of UK-EU trade deal being signed minutes after Brexit
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, is holding a press conference in Brussels.
Q: Do you accept David Davis’s claim that the EU could sign a trade deal minutes after the UK leaves the EU?
Barnier says he thinks the withdrawal agreement could be accompanied by a political declaration referring to the future trade relationship.
He says he thinks that is what Davis must have been referring to. That is all that will be possible, he says.
- Barnier says David Davis wrong about possibility of UK-EU trade deal being signed minutes after Brexit.
Q: There has been a lot of talk about a level playing field with a trade deal. What would that involve?
Barnier says he cannot say. The EU27 need to talk about that amongst themselves.
He says this trade deal will not be about convergence. It will be about managing divergence. It is the first time in 60 years a trade deal has had to do that, he says.
Updated
Grieve is now talking about other amendments.
He says the powers that the EU withdrawal bill gives to ministers are “far too stark and far too great”.
He says he wants to hear from ministers how they will respond to the various amendments that would constrain these powers.
For example, he says the government could accept his amendment 1, he says. This would limit the power of a minister to make regulations using powers under the bill “to cases where the EU law is deficient in the way set out in the bill”.
He says he wants to avoid having to put any of his amendments to a vote.
But he will only pull his amendments if he gets sufficient assurances from ministers, he says.
Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, is speaking in the Commons now in the EU withdrawal bill debate. He has tabled many amendments to the bill, including one on which the government faces a real risk of defeat tomorrow.
He welcomes the government’s decision to accept amendments creating a “sifting committee” to ensure MPs get a vote when ministers want to introduce important bits of secondary legislation. But he says it will be important for the government to make sure that the right sort of MPs are sitting on that committee, he says. He says there are MPs in the chamber who are good at spotting when ministers are trying sneak through big changes with minimal scrutiny. They are the sorts of people who need to be on this committee, he says.
German minister suggests May not being open with voters about UK paying 'Brexit bill' before trade deal finalised
A German minister has accused Theresa May of not being open with British voters about the fact that the UK will have to pay a “Brexit bill” to the EU before a trade deal is finalised. According to a Spiegel Online report, Michael Roth, the German Europe minister, made the comment at an EU meeting in Brussels.
The Spiegel report is in German, but here is a Google Translate translation of the start of the story, with minor tidying up from me.
The German government has called on Britain’s prime minister Theresa May to properly report on the results of the previous Brexit negotiations in her homeland. “You have to play and speak the same way as you do in London,” said Michael Roth (SPD) on the sidelines of an EU ministerial meeting in Brussels. He was “somewhat surprised” that what the British government said in Brussels was “a little different” to what was said in London.
Roth hinted that May had given the impression that Britain only had to pay the Brexit final bill to the EU if there was a deal on a trade agreement.
From an EU point of view, however, this does not correspond to the deal that May received at the end of last week in Brussels. It stipulates that the agreements on the final invoice will result in a legally binding withdrawal agreement which is independent of the trade agreement desired by the United Kingdom.
Many Tories insist that the UK should only pay its “Brexit bill”, costing £35bn to £39bn according to May yesterday, only if it gets a free trade deal.
Yesterday May (here) and Davis Davis (here) both insisted that payments were conditional on the UK getting a Brexit deal. But they have not always been 100% clear about which deal they are talking about because there will be at least two deals.
There will be a withdrawal agreement, potentially agreed in the autumn. And at some point after Brexit the UK and the EU may sign a proper trade deal. The UK-EU deal agreed last week tied the “Brexit bill” payments to the withdrawal agreement, not the trade deal further down the line.
But, as May told MPs yesterday, the withdrawal agreement is meant to take into account “the framework for the future relationship”. So it should contain a broad commitment to a trade deal of some kind, although almost certainly not the details. In draft guidelines the European council says the bit covering trade will be a “political declaration” - which is quite different from a 2,000-page trade document. That is what the UK will be getting for its £39bn.
(Thanks to knielang BTL for flagging this up.)
Updated
Davis says UK will convert UK-EU deal 'into legal text as soon as possible'
Talking of David Davis, it sounds as if the Brexit secretary has been on the phone to Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s lead Brexit spokesman, to assuage Verhofstadt’s concerns about what Davis said in his Marr interview on Sunday.
Pleasure, as ever, to speak to my friend @guyverhofstadt - we both agreed on the importance of the Joint Report. Let's work together to get it converted into legal text as soon as possible. 1/2
— David Davis (@DavidDavisMP) December 12, 2017
I look forward to working closely with the EP in the next phase, including on a top shared priority: ensuring admin procedures for citizens are as streamlined as possible in both the UK and EU. 2/2 @guyverhofstadt
— David Davis (@DavidDavisMP) December 12, 2017
Converting the agreement into “legal text” is the phrase Verhofstadt used in his tweets earlier (see 11.26am), but it was not clear whether he expects the UK to start passing legislation implementing the deal now, or whether he just expects the government to draft a bill ready to be passed once the withdrawal agreement gets finalised in the autumn.
In London government sources were playing down the idea that Davis’s tweet means he plans to legislate soon. They say the proposed withdrawal agreement and implementation bill will have to wait until there actually is a withdrawal agreement.
As my colleague Daniel Boffey reports, EU officials briefing on their latest guidelines for the Brexit negotiation have [David] “Davis-proofed” their plans.
Senior EU official on their guidelines for the next few months of Brexit talks: "They are Davis-proofed”.
— Daniel Boffey (@DanielBoffey) December 12, 2017
The Times today (paywall) reports that Michael Gove, the environment secretary, is pushing for some of the £13bn aid budget to be spent on reducing plastic pollution in oceans. Downing Street subsequently confirmed that the story was accurate. The prime minister’s spokesman told journalists:
The government is a global leader in protecting oceans and marine life and we have already taken significant steps to tackle plastic waste.
Michael Gove and Penny Mordaunt [the international development secretary] are actively looking at what more we can do in this specific area.
Their departments have a strong record of work on the environment and development and tackling marine pollution is a good example of where we can apply the government’s joint strengths.
As Martin Belam and Jessica Elgot reported yesterday, the Conservatives are particularly keen to assert their green credentials at the moment, and this has seen many Tories tweeting about Blue Planet.
UK should not assume transition deal is inevitable, says senior MEP
Another senior MEP has issued a warning to the UK about the Brexit process. In an article for Politico Europe, Manfred Weber, leader of the centre-right European People’s party (EPP) in the European parliament and an ally of Angela Merkel’s, says Britain should not assume it will inevitably get a transition deal. He says.
The British government is assuming it will be granted a transitional period, during which the UK. will enjoy continued access to the European single market.
There’s no guarantee that will happen. The transition period will rely on the approval of the European parliament. Whether it signs off on such an arrangement will be entirely conditional on the progress made in this next phase of talks ...
The granting of a transition period will also depend on the results of the second round of talks. This next round has to move considerably faster than the first. The UK should not assume — because of the possibility of a two-year transition — that it has more time to discuss trade issues and the future relationship.
Before we agree to a transition period, both sides need to work out together what sort of relationship the UK will have with the bloc after March 2019.
Updated
According to the Labour whips, voting tonight could take several hours.
Day 6 of #EUWithdrawalBill starts at about 13.10. There can be up to 8 hours debate with multiple divisions (possibly up to a few hours of voting) from at or before about 9.10pm
— Labour Whips (@labourwhips) December 12, 2017
But the most difficult votes for the government are expected tomorrow.
MPs debate EU withdrawal bill
MPs are about to start the day six committee stage debate of the EU withdrawal bill. The main focus is on the proposal for a sifting committee, which the government has already accepted.
Committee stage proceedings are not always easy to follow and today’s agenda is particularly complicated. As well as debating and voting on amendments relating to clause 7 of the bill, MPs may also be voting on some amendments debated earlier this month. And they will be debating other amendments that will be put to a vote tomorrow, or tomorrow week. All clear?
The lead amendment is the Labour MP Chris Leslie’s new clause 18 (NC18). This would require the government to commission an independent report on the constitutional implications of the wide-ranging Henry VIII powers (powers to amend primary legislation by secondary legislation) in the bill.
You can read all the documents relating to the bill on the parliament website here.
And here is the document listing all the amendments to the bill (pdf).
Welsh assembly needs 20 or 30 extra members, says expert panel
The number of members of the Welsh Assembly should increase from 60 to at least 80 or 90 to cope with its increasing workload, an independent report has concluded. As the Press Association reports, the report also recommends that members should be elected by a more proportional system, for 16 and 17-year-olds to be able to vote in assembly elections and calls for all of the changes to be put in place ahead of the next elections in 2021. The PA report goes on:
Prof Laura McAllister, chair of the expert panel on assembly electoral reform, which produced the report, acknowledged that calling for more politicians was not an “easy sell” but said they had looked at the size of other parliaments around the world and concluded that with only 60 members Wales was “ridiculously under-resourced”.
Speaking at a launch event for the report at the Senedd in Cardiff Bay on Tuesday, she said: “I would be the first person to acknowledge that calling for more politicians is unlikely to be popular anywhere. But she added: “By any measurable standards this place is too small to do its job effectively.”
The report said the estimated cost of having 20 extra members would be £6.6m annually plus a £2.4m one off cost, while 30 additional members would cost £9.6m per year with a £3.3m one off cost.
Prof McAllister said those figures represented around 0.08% of the Welsh Block Grant and that “good scrutiny pays for itself”.
“Proper scrutiny of legislation and policy can deliver better public services,” she added.
“We are very conscious that public support or at least acceptance of a larger assembly is very much tied into keeping additional costs to an absolute minimum.”
Assembly members were given the powers to change the way they are elected with the introduction of the 2017 Wales Act.
The proposed changes will require a law to be passed in the assembly with a two-thirds majority.
Presiding officer Elin Jones said the assembly commission, the the cross-party group which commissioned the study in February, would consult with the people of Wales on these “thorny, tricky issues” in early 2018, while there would also be consultation with political parties.
Momentum have released a Christmas-themed campaign advert, this time focussed on post office closures.
The advert, which has been devised with the Communication Workers’ Union, is filmed in the style of a John Lewis advert where a man devotes weeks up until Christmas to fix an old friend’s cuckoo clock - but is thwarted at the last moment.
The grassroots group has released a number of spiky viral videos including one of a middle-class garden party where older voters discuss Jeremy Corbyn’s policies, which Conservatives said pitted older voters against the young.
Downing Street has been doing its very best to not react to Guy Verhofstadt’s comments (see 11.26am) that trust has been damaged by David Davis commenting that last week’s initial Brexit deal was only a statement of intent.
Theresa May’s spokesman said he had no direct comment on Verhofstadt’s tweet to this effect, and sought to play down any disagreement. He told journalists:
The secretary of state set out yesterday, and the commission agreed with him, that the agreement that was reached last week is a political agreement, but that will move forward into a withdrawal agreement, which will be legally binding.
Asked about plans by the European parliament to vote on a draft resolution on Wednesday to agree tougher wording on the agreement, the spokesman said even less. He said:
There is a process to follow in terms of the withdrawal agreement. That’s all been set out already. In terms of draft guidelines I’ve never commented on those and won’t start now.
Updated
Guy Verhofstadt has now posted another tweet with details of how the European parliament’s Brexit resolution is being beefed up in the light of David Davis’s Marr interview on Sunday.
After @DavidDavisMP’s unacceptable remarks, it’s time the UK government restores trust. These amendements will further toughen up our resolution. pic.twitter.com/zKfVlJtOi5
— Guy Verhofstadt (@guyverhofstadt) December 12, 2017
In the 9.31am post the links to the Rand Corporation Brexit report, and to the executive summary, were not working earlier. Sorry about that. They are now fixed.
MEPs will toughen their Brexit demands after David Davis's 'unhelpful' interview, says Verhofstadt
Tomorrow the European parliament will debate a resolution on Brexit. According to Guy Verhofstadt, the parliament’s lead Brexit spokesman, MEPs are going to toughen their demands in the light of what David Davis said in his Andrew Marr Show interview on Sunday because Davis implied the UK government was not fully committed to what it had agreed. Davis had to use an interview yesterday to clarify his stance, claiming that his words at the weekend has been misunderstood. Verhofstadt tweeted this:
Remarks by David Davis that Phase one deal last week not binding were unhelpful & undermines trust. EP text will now reflect this & insist agreement translated into legal text ASAP #Brexit
— Guy Verhofstadt (@guyverhofstadt) December 12, 2017
A report in today’s Times (paywall) quotes other EU sources as being unhappy with what Davis said. It says:
EU officials and diplomats were irritated by Mr Davis’s remark at the weekend that the withdrawal agreement was just a “statement of intent”. “It’s not helpful if people cast everything into doubt 24 hours later,” one source said.
The Times says that, in order to ensure the UK does not try to wriggle out of the commitments it made in the UK-EU Brexit deal, EU leaders will demand that Britain legislates as quickly as possible to implement what it promised. The European council actually set this out in draft guidelines issued on Friday (pdf). They say:
Negotiations in the second phase can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken during the first phase are respected in full and translated faithfully in legal terms as quickly as possible.
According to a report by the Telegraph’s James Crisp (paywall), the European parliament resolution will also say the UK should keep paying into the EU budget in return for a trade deal. He says:
MEPs are likely to back a resolution, obtained by The Telegraph, that says Britain and the EU should sign an association agreement, which would be coupled with a free trade deal.
The EU has many such association agreements with other countries. The treaties, which give a legal basis for cooperation, are used in some cases as a preliminary step towards EU membership but also for non European nations such as Libya and Azerbaijan.
The draft text, prepared by five pro-EU political groups, insists that MEPs will only accept the association agreement, if it strictly adhered to conditions including “commensurate financial contributions” by Britain.
Majority of voters think Brexit going badly, poll suggests
The latest Guardian/ICM polling is out today, and there is good news and bad news for Theresa May.
Brexit - Going well or badly?
First, the bad news for May.
- A majority of people (51%) think the Brexit process is going badly, the poll suggests. Only 21% think it is going well. What is striking is that ICM generated this result even though polling was carried out between Friday and Sunday, when news coverage was dominated by mostly positive reports about May managing to secure a Brexit deal early on Friday morning.
Here are the detailed figures. People were asked overall how they thought the Brexit process was going.
Very well: 4%
Quite well: 17%
Net well: 21%
Neither well or badly: 23%
Quite badly: 29%
Very badly: 22%
Net badly: 51%
Don’t know: 6%
ICM’s Alex Turk writes:
Whilst some within the Conservative party have heralded the first stage of negotiations as a success for Britain, it’s clear that the British public are less enthusiastic about how the Brexit process is going. Only one in five Brits (21%) think Brexit is going well, with a majority (51%) thinking it is going badly. Conservative voters are the most likely to think the Brexit process is going well (39%), more so than Leavers at the 2016 referendum (28%). Whilst those who voted Remain at the 2016 referendum are more likely to think Brexit is going badly than Leavers, it’s worth noting the substantial minority (41%) of those who voted Leave in 2016 that think the Brexit process is going badly.
Second referendum?
Then we asked about a second referendum.
- Around a third of voters want a second referendum on leaving the EU, the poll suggests. This is higher than when we last asked this question in January, when around a quarter of voters were in favour, but supporters of a second referendum are still easily outnumbered by those saying Brexit should go ahead come what may.
Respondents were given three possible Brexit outcomes and asked which they would prefer. The results were:
UK leaving, regardless of what happens in negotiations: 45% (down 8 from Guardian/ICM in January)
Parliament to decide whether the UK leaves, based on the outcome of negotiations: 10% (down 2)
A second referendum to let people decide, based on the outcome of the negotiations: 32% (up 6)
Don’t know:13% (up 4)
Leave or remain?
We also asked how people would vote if there was another EU referendum tomorrow.
- Reman would be ahead of leave by three points if there were another referendum tomorrow, the poll suggests. Some 46% of respondents said they would vote remain and 43% said they would vote leave. At the referendum in June last year leave won by 52% to 48%.
Turk writes:
If there was another referendum tomorrow, 46% of our poll’s respondents say they would vote Remain, a slim lead over the 43% who would vote Leave. Overall this marks very little change from the 2016 referendum result, as evidenced by the 91% of 2016 Remainers and 87% of 2016 Leavers not changing their vote choice. Nevertheless, it looks like there may be a slight trend towards Remain benefiting over Leave since the 2016 Referendum. Of those who either didn’t vote or can’t remember their vote in 2016, almost twice as many say they would vote for Remain (28%) rather than Leave (15%) at a future referendum.
Party support
And here are the state of the party findings.
- The Conservatives have a two-point lead over Labour, the poll suggests. The last six polls have had the Conservatives and Labour tied. This broadly reflects the findings of a YouGov poll for the Times out today giving the Conservatives their first lead over Labour since June (although it is just one point).
Conservatives: 42% (up 1 from Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)
Labour: 40% (down 1)
Lib Dems: 8% (up 1)
Ukip: 5% (no change)
Greens: 2% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 2 points (up 2)
I will post a link to the tables here, as soon as they go up on the ICM website.
UPDATE: Here is the ICM write-up of the poll. And here are the tables (pdf).
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,006 adults aged 18+ on 8 to 10 December 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Updated
The Labour MP Peter Kyle has issued this statement on the Rand Corporation report (see 9.31am) on behalf of Open Britain, which is campaigning for a soft Brexit. Kyle said:
Far from making us better off, the Brexit path the Government is taking us down is in fact the biggest threat we face to our economic prosperity, with growth already slowing and prices rising.
The fantasy that we can leave the single market and the customs union, but maintain the ‘exact same benefits’ of both as David Davis has promised, is completely deluded. And as this report makes clear, a trade deal with Trump’s America can never come close to replacing the trade we currently do with Europe. Brexit will not give us a closer relationship with the United States, as President Obama pointed out.
Last month a story in the Sunday Times (paywall) said that Theresa May wanted to appoint William Hague as first secretary of state (effectively, deputy prime minister) in the event of Damian Green being forced out by the Cabinet Office inquiry into misconduct allegations.
Today Hague has said no - via the platform of his column in the Daily Telegraph (paywall). He writes:
Then there is the case for a limited reshuffle, whatever the verdict on Damian Green – who has won the sympathy of all of us appalled by two unprofessional senior police officers. A shuffle is always tricky when every vote is needed, but it is essential to bring on the extensive future talent of the Tory party. I have read that I should return to government as an old hand, but I have mentally moved on and will most definitely not be doing so. It is a great strength that excellent new MPs were elected in the last three elections – advancing five or six of them into the public gaze would be a service to party and country.
Jeremy Corbyn has posted this on Twitter to mark national postal workers day.
Our posties work in all weathers to bring us our mail and parcels. On #NationalPostalWorkersDay - one of the busiest posting days of the year - join Labour in defending postal workers and Post Offices from the @Conservatives' cuts and privatisation. @CWUnews #RiseUp pic.twitter.com/QuqruCdLug
— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) December 12, 2017
Clive Lewis cleared over sexual harassment claim
Clive Lewis, the Labour MP and former shadow business secretary, has been cleared of allegations of sexual harassment after a party investigation, my colleague Heather Stewart reports.
Inflation rose to 3.1% in November
Inflation rose last month, the Press Association reports.
The rate of Consumer Prices Index inflation rose to 3.1% in November, from 3% in October, the Office for National Statistics said.
Here is the ONS report.
And here is my colleague Graeme Wearden’s business blog, with more coverage/
Almost all potential Brexit outcomes will leave UK worse off, says US thinktank
The government may not have produced any Brexit impact assessments, but a major American thinktank, the Rand Corporation, has, and its findings are grim. It has looked at eight possible Brexit outcomes for the UK, and only one of them leads to the UK being better off after 10 years.
That scenario involves a potential trilateral UK-EU-US free trade agreement, which the authors say is “very unlikely in the current political environment on both sides of the Atlantic”.
All seven other scenarios would lead to the UK being worse off after 10 years, the report says.
Leaving the EU with no deal and operating under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules would lead to the greatest economic loss for the UK, reducing GDP by nearly 5 per cent, or $140 billion, 10 years after Brexit, compared with EU membership ...
Other trade scenarios could be better for the UK than WTO rules but still lead to economic losses compared with EU membership. These include ‘hard Brexit’ scenarios, such as a UK-EU free trade agreement (net UK GDP decline of 1.9 per cent 10 years after Brexit), UK-US free trade agreement (2.5 per cent decline) or UK-EU transitional zero-tariff agreement (2.1 per cent decline), and ‘soft Brexit’ scenarios, such as the Norway option (1.7 per cent decline), Switzerland option (2.4 per cent decline) or remaining part of the Customs Union (1.8 per cent decline).
Patrick Wintour’s overnight story about the report’s findings are here.
The Rand Corporation’s press release summarising the report is here. An 11-page executive summary is here (pdf). And the full 159-page report is here (pdf).
On the Today programme Charles Ries, a Rand Corporation vice president and one of the reports authors, explained why Brexit would be so bad for the British economy.
The European Union’s single market is essentially friction-free trade in goods and services, no inspection across the border, the same standards and conformity with assessment practices everywhere, and, importantly, really very open access for British services. And services are the powerhouse behind the British economy. And so not having all of those things will effect the British economy.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Ed Miliband, the former Labour leader, speaks at the launch of a Resolution Foundation report on a higher minimum wage.
9.30am: Inflation figures are published.
10.15am: Brandon Lewis, the immigration minister, gives evidence to a Lords committee on citizens’ rights.
Around 12.45pm: MPs begin day six of the EU withdrawal bill committee stage debate. Votes will take place at about 8.45pm.
1.30pm: Damian Green, the first secretary of state, and David Davis, the Brexit secretary, attend the joint ministerial committee (JMC) meeting with ministers from the devolved administrations.
2pm: Sir Patrick McLoughlin, the Conservative party chairman, gives evidence to a Lords committee looking at polling and digital media.
As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.
You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.
Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news from Jack Blanchard’s Playbook. Here is the ConservativeHome round-up of today’s political stories. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’ top 10 must reads.
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