Prediction markets are heating up and seeing more outcomes for consumers to wager on. Once attracting millions of dollars in bets for the 2024 election, Polymarket is now taking consumers’ predictions on publicly traded companies.
Polymarket Earnings Predictions
Earnings season is here, and many of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. have quarterly results in the current and coming weeks.
This week, AT&T Inc (NYSE:T), one of the largest telecommunications companies, reported third-quarter financial results.
The telecommunications company was among the companies offered as a prediction market on Polymarket, with users able to predict "will AT&T beat quarterly earnings?"
The day before the company reported financial results, odds were as high as 87.5% for yes, with users optimistic that the company would beat the consensus estimate of 54 cents per share used by Polymarket.
On Wednesday morning, ahead of the quarterly results, the prediction market gave an 85.5% chance that AT&T would beat earnings estimates.
The company reported earnings per share of 54 cents, missing the Polymarket estimate. What was once a chance of over 80% quickly fell to less than 1% for users who bet on “yes,” cashing out at $0 on the amount they wagered that the telecommunications company would beat earnings.
AT&T reported quarterly revenue of $30.71 billion, up 1.6%. While there was no prediction market for revenue, the quarterly total missed a Street consensus estimate of $30.81 billion according to Benzinga Pro data.
Analysts later lowered their price targets on AT&T after the earnings report.
AT&T stock trades at $24.88 on Friday versus a 52-week trading range of $21.38 to $29.79. Shares are up 9.0% year-to-date in 2025, but have fallen 12.2% over the past month.
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Polymarket Gains Momentum
An investment by New York Stock Exchange parent company Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) could be helping validate the prediction market company, which has been popular with cryptocurrency investors.
Another popular prediction market for the week was whether Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) would beat earnings for the third quarter.
Benzinga previously shared that 80% of users believed the EV company would beat quarterly earnings estimates. Instead, the company's 50 cents per share in earnings were in line with estimates, sending the prediction market to 0 for those who bet “yes.”
Prediction markets like Polymarket have gone from huge volume on elections and political outcomes to gaining share in sports contests, potentially taking market share from sportsbooks.
Earnings prediction markets are relatively new on the platform, but could quickly become a favorite crossover from retail investors.
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