The worsening drought forced a 13% cut in the projected almond crop in California.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture now expects about 2.8 billion pounds from the August-October harvest. The initial estimate in May was for a record 3.2 billion pounds.
Some growers have opted to strip nuts from branches so their trees can get by with less irrigation this summer, Monday's report said. Water is especially short in parts of the western and southern San Joaquin Valley.
Any upside? Growers with adequate water can expect higher prices per pound from almond buyers around the world. This includes the Modesto, Turlock, Oakdale and South San Joaquin irrigation districts.
The state accounts for about 80% of the global almond supply. Farms and processing plants employ several thousand people in and near Stanislaus County.
Even with Monday's revision, this year's harvest would be the second-largest ever, topped only by the 3.12 billion pounds in 2020. The Almond Board of California, based in Modesto, noted this in a news release.
"The report still forecasts a really large crop, and it's further proof that California is an ideal place to grow almonds, even in difficult times," said board chairman Kent Stenderup, a grower in Kern County.
The estimates are made each year by the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. The first is announced in May, based on a telephone survey of growers about how their almonds are developing. The second is in July, following visits to orchards to count and measure nuts.
The initial projection was based in part on favorable weather in February and March for the bees that pollinate the trees. Growers also reported little trouble with almond pests or diseases.
The winter had below-average rain and snow. The outlook got even worse with the lack of spring storms.
"Due to low water allocations and record high temperatures in June, the crop did not develop as well as expected," Monday's report said. "Some growers have decided to save their trees by stripping nuts before harvest."
Many customers of the federal Central Valley Project have zero water this year. Some are getting 75% because of river rights predating its construction.
MID and TID are providing about 80% of their accustomed amounts. Growers can tap wells, if they have them, and stretch the supply with careful use.
OID and SSJID have not capped growers and in fact are selling surplus water to the West Side.
The record crop in 2020 had a downside — lower prices paid to growers. They got an average of $1.83 per pound, below the cost of producing the crop.
The Almond Board reported strong shipments in recent months of the nuts remaining in storage from the 2020 harvest. They were running about 22% ahead of 2019 as of June.
"Shipment numbers show that the demand for California almonds continues to increase both in the U.S. and around the world," President and CEO Richard Waycott said.
".... With such strong demand, competition for the 2021 crop could lead to a much needed increase in the return to growers, which is currently below the cost of production due to the recent record crop."
The $1.83 per pound last year was the lowest average price since the $1.79 in 2010. This figure was in the profitable range of $2.39 to $2.53 from 2016 to 2019. It spiked as high as $4 in 2014, but a sustained price at that level could drive away buyers.
The average price for the 2021 crop will not be announced until well into next year, after all of the almonds in storage are shipped.
