Brits could soon find themselves on planes headed for the Mediterranean or across the Pond due to an upcoming travel list update.
Within the next week it is expected that a raft of new countries will be added to the green list.
When the traffic light system was announced, it was confirmed that the rules would be reviewed every three weeks.
It’s believed officials are hoping to announce the first update this Thursday to take effect on Monday June 7. They hope Transport Secretary Grant Shapps will confirm the update at a 5pm press conference - but that could slip.
Not even Mr Shapps knows what the changes will be until hours beforehand, because the changes are recommended by the independent Joint Biosecurity Centre.
Whatever happens, it's likely that more countries will be added to the list of approved holiday destinations.
But likewise, countries can move in the other direction. PM Boris Johnson warned today: "We’ve got to be cautious and we’ve got to continue to put countries on the red list, on the amber list, when that is necessary.
"We will have no hesitation in moving countries from the green list to the amber list, to the red list, if we have to do so."
Brits can travel from the UK to green list nations and back again and not have to quarantine, making it a major pull for those without unlimited days to take off work.
However, Brits arriving home from green list countries must still take two Covid tests - one before they catch their return flight, and the other on Day 2 after arrival.
The list is currently made up of Ascension Island, Australia, Brunei, the Falkland Islands, the Faroe Islands, Gibraltar, Iceland, Israel, New Zealand, Portugal, Tristan da Cunha, St Helena, Singapore, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands.
The following are countries which could get green status at the next review.
How the green list is decided
There's no one threshold a country has to pass to get on the green list - it's a complex combination of factors that are decided by the Joint Biosecurity centre. These include:
- Variants in the country - including how widespread and transmissible they are, and any evidence they evade a vaccine.
- Testing and weekly case rates per 100,000 people, and the % of tests that come back positive.
- If the country is safe, but has strong travel links with other countries that have a big risk from variants.
- How good that country is at genomic sequencing - in other words, spotting new variants.
- How good the overall data in the country is - in other words, if low case rates can be trusted.
Islands
It's understood the government wants to separate out the biggest island hotspots from their host territories in future updates.
That could mean, for example, that Mallorca is given green list status even though mainland Spain is not.
But the Joint Biosecurity Centre makes the final decision on which islands to separate out and when, so we can't say for sure.
Priority will be given to islands that take up the biggest share of the UK tourist market.
Spain
Although the UK government has not released the equation used to determine whether a country should be classified as red, amber or green, comparisons between nations and their Covid and jab rate gives a good idea of where they stand.
When Portugal was put on the green list it had a coronavirus case rate of roughly 53 cases per 100,000 population and around 10 per cent of the public had been vaccinated.
According to data from the end of last week, Spain had a case rate of 72/100,000 and a first dose vaccination rate 36.76 per cent, meaning it's suffering more infections than Portugal was, but is much further along its vaccination programme.
All the signs coming from the Spanish government suggest it is ready to welcome in plane loads of Brits.
Spain’s tourism minister has said the country is in a good place and that he is sure it would make the green list.
Fernando Valdes told Sky News that “Spain is doing a great effort” with its vaccine roll-out and “with our notification rates which are pretty low and by the same notification range of the UK”.
In a sign of the country's intent, Spain lifted all restrictions from UK travellers on Monday 24 May, meaning visitors no longer need to take a PCR Covid-19 test.
Malta
With glorious sunshine, sparkling blue seas and historic monuments as far as the eye can see, Malta is a big draw for Brits.
Today the country open its borders to tourists, welcoming Brits back for summer holidays regardless of their vaccination status.
However, it remains on the UK's amber list for now, meaning self-isolation is required upon your return.
Malta's figures means there's a good chance it'll be designated green at the next update.
It had a case rate of 8.74/100,000 and vaccination rate 70.64 per cent at the end of last week
Barbados
Another holiday destination that looks very likely to be unlocked for Brits is Barbados.
With around a third of its population having had a first jab and a case rate of just 7.3/100,000, all of the signs look good for those lucky enough to be able to afford a trip to this particular island paradise.
Jamaica
Compared to other countries that could be added to the green, Jamaica bucks the trend somewhat.
It has a very low vacation rate, with only five per cent of the population having received a single dose.
However, it also has a rock bottom coronavirus case rate at 20/100,000, meaning the chances of catching the virus out there are slim.
The Caribbean island has been hotly tipped to go green for several days now.
USA
Thanks in no small part to the country's full paced vaccination drive, the US is on much better footing than it was at the beginning of 2021.
A nation that just a few months ago was losing thousands of citizens to Covid-19 every day now has a case rate of 70/100,000, with just shy of 50 per cent of people having had a jab.
The numbers are looking good for the US to be put on the green list, which would be a huge boon for Brits with friends and family across The Pond.
Several state governors including those in Texas and Florida have lifted mask mandates and social distancing rules, so life in the USA is largely back to normal.
Countries less likely to make the cut
Unfortunately for those desperate to skip the Isles as soon as the UK's current heatwave comes to an inevitable soggy end, several holiday favourites will likely remain amber.
Greece is one country that has unfortunately struggled to get its case numbers under control after the most recent peak.
As of the end of last week it had a case rate of 168.81/100,000 and a third of the population had had a jab.
Cyprus is one holiday hotspot that could go either way in terms of classification.
On the positive side of things, it has a vaccination rate of 43 per cent.
Less optimistically, its case rate of 102/100,000 is roughly double that of Portugal's when it was designated green.
France suffered a 'third wave' of the disease in early spring and while case rates are continuing to come down, they are still fairly high at 158.83/100,000, with a vaccination rate of 35.15 per cent.
