PHILADELPHIA — Bryce Harper arrived a few months ago at his 5,000th major league plate appearance with statistics that were strikingly similar to Barry Bonds’ at that milepost. Because most observers considered Bonds a future Hall of Famer before he was linked to steroids, it raises a fascinating question:
Ten seasons into Harper’s career, with 10 years left on his $330 million contract, is he on course for Cooperstown?
“For me, Barry Bonds is one of the greatest hitters of all time, if not the best. I just try to be Bryce,” the Phillies superstar said during the past season. “That’s what my dad’s always told me: ‘Don’t try to match anybody else or be like this guy or that guy. Just be Bryce.’ I think there’s certain things in my career that could put me on a trajectory to be [in the Hall of Fame] one day. But there are also those days where I’m not.”
The Philadelphia Inquirer dove into the data in an attempt to gauge Harper’s Hall of Fame chances. Those who Harper looked most similar to at 5,000 plate appearances include Barry Bonds, Reggie Jackson and Andruw Jones — and 12 others: Dale Murphy, Shawn Green, Gary Sheffield, Jack Clark, Rocky Colavito, Darryl Strawberry, Jose Canseco, Chipper Jones, Dick Allen, Carlos Beltran, Bobby Bonds, and Greg Luzinski.
Unlike Mike Trout, who could retire today and gain entry to the Hall of Fame as this generation’s greatest player, Harper, who turned 29 last month, is not yet a sure bet. But he is trending well largely because of his power and plate discipline, the skills that will most define his chances of getting there.
Membership in the 500-homer club is no longer a free pass to Cooperstown after the steroids era, but it remains a golden milestone. It also may be within Harper’s reach. With 267 homers in his pocket, he needs to average 24 homers per year over the next 10 years to get to 500. He has averaged nearly 33 homers per year in the last six full seasons.
Harper’s projected .386 career on-base percentage would neither put him in the top-100 all time nor be as undeniable to Hall voters as his power numbers. But it would be central to his case. Since his major league debut in 2012, Harper ranks fifth in OBP (.392) mostly because he’s tied for the fifth-highest walk rate (15.2%). He also has drawn more walks than any player since 2016. ZiPS, a projection system developed by FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski, gives him 1,692 walks through 2031, which would rank him 10th all-time. Of the top nine, only Bonds isn’t in the Hall of Fame. One downside to all the walks: They draw away from other statistical totals, such as hits and RBIs.
This combination of power and plate discipline form the foundation for Harper’s solid OPS+, which stands at 142 — or 42% above league average — tied for ninth among all players since 2012. ZiPS projects him to post about 131 through 2031. To Jay Jaffe, author of The Cooperstown Casebook, OPS+ is among the more promising data points for Harper’s Hall of Fame case.
“Being 40 percent above the league is really where you’re talking about a guy who’s probably a Hall of Famer, if he maintains that over 8,000 to 10,000 plate appearances,” Jaffe said. “The expectation is that Harper is going to regress from that. But anything in that range is going to get some attention.”
WAR tells a similar tale. Partially because Harper doesn’t tend to grade well in defensive metrics, he had less WAR through 5,000 plate appearances (36.5) than many of the 15 most similar players. But ZiPS gives him six more seasons of at least 3.0 WAR and puts him at 72.6 through 2031. The average WAR for Hall of Fame right fielders is about 68.
Hall of Fame resumes aren’t built on any one metric, but Harper’s raw power may prove to be his best attribute.
Harper’s biggest advantage in his Hall of Fame pursuit may be his age. He won his first MVP at 22, and signed a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Phillies at 26. He reached 5,000 plate appearances at 28, younger than any of the most similar players except Andruw Jones.
Of all the factors that could keep a player from reaching the Hall of Fame, an age-related decline is the most common, as it was for Andruw Jones and Murphy. But Harper’s head start on his career may enable him to maintain his production longer than others and accumulate bigger numbers.
Despite his impressive overall numbers, Harper’s critics question his consistency. At his best, he’s in the conversation for the most dangerous hitter in the game. In 2015 with the Nationals and this past season with the Phillies, Harper’s OPS+ soared to 198 and 179, respectively, and he had 9.3 and 6.6 WAR. If he’s named National League MVP on Thursday, it will be the second time he has won the award. Of the 19 two-time MVPs to appear on a Hall of Fame ballot, 16 were elected.
But Harper’s OPS+ slipped to 114 in 2016 and 126 in 2019. He had 1.6 WAR in 2014 and 2.9 in 2016. Harper’s “down years” still tend to result in offensive numbers that are far better than average, but the gap between his ceiling and his floor is pronounced.
Longevity and health are the most critical factors for any player’s Hall of Fame chances and will influence the extremes of those peaks and valleys. Harper has played at least 100 games in every full season, but he developed a lower back problem last year. He believes the issue is under control and was able to start 72 games in a row to close the 2021 season.
“The biggest thing is I’ve got to stay healthy,” Harper said. “If I stay healthy and I stay on the field and I play the game the way I know how, then I’ll have success.”
So, is Harper on course for the Hall of Fame?
There’s one other thing that could help Harper’s Hall of Fame bid, and it matters more to him than All-Star Game appearances and MVP awards: a World Series championship that has thus far eluded him.
“Everyone thinks this is B.S.,” Harper said, “but I just want to win. That’s a cliché answer, right? I’ve always said the accolades and all the accomplishments are great, but for me, I just want to win. That’s the greatest accomplishment I could bring to the city of Philadelphia, to my teammates, to ownership for believing in me and bringing me here.
“If I do that, the personal accolades will be there, I believe.”
