Zach LaVine is only a few months away from entering unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career, which means he'll have some options to consider.
LaVine signed an offer sheet worth $78 million with the Sacramento Kings in the summer of 2018 which the Chicago Bulls matched, and in the time since, LaVine has been viewed as one of the most underpaid performers league-wide.
That won't be the case this time around, as LaVine will seek, and very likely receive, a max-level contract based on his play. LaVine has averaged 25.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists over the four seasons that has passed since signing that contract.
On the surface, it all sounds like his future contract is already written in stone, but in fact, it's not entirely settled, due to a number of factors.
Let's get into it.
Contract length & salary cap rules
The Bulls can offer LaVine a five-year deal at max money (we'll get to specific monetary amounts later), which they likely will. LaVine will be 27 when he signs his new deal, so paying for the two-time All-Star during his absolute prime years seem smart.
It also helps the Bulls have become a winning team this season after landing fellow All-Star DeMar DeRozan, who is eight in MVP projections this season. The presence of DeRozan and Chicago's winning ways have given the Bulls additional motivation in locking up LaVine long-term.
Instead of signing a five-year max, however, LaVine and his representatives at Klutch Sports could instead negotiate a so-called 2+1 deal, which is two years of guaranteed money, followed by a player option which allows LaVine to opt out.
The logic here would be for LaVine to opt out in 2024 and once again become an unrestricted free agent, only this time with 10 years of experience, or Years Of Service (YOS).
10 or more YOS allows LaVine to be eligible for 35% of the salary cap, as opposed to the 30% he would sign under currently, given his 8 YOS. Players with 7-9 YOS are eligible for 30%.
His salary in 2022-23, based on the above, can thus be no higher than 30% of the cap, and he’d be limited to 8% annual raises in the remaining years of his new contract.
Of course, this is where things get tricky.
LaVine tore his ACL during his third season in the league, and he's once again experiencing pain in the same knee. He's scheduled to fly to Los Angeles to have it checked out, although no structural damage appears to be in the cards, according to head coach Billy Donovan.
Regardless, there is a significant gamble for LaVine in signing the 2+1.
Should his knee fail him within the next two years, odds are teams won't be standing in line to sign a 29-year-old going into his 10th season to a max contract worth 35% of the cap.
In fact, it could be argued that even without another knee injury, teams would still hesitate to sign players bordering on the age of 30 to long-term 35% max deals, unless they're Tier 1 superstars who can lead a team to the Finals with little help around them.
As much as LaVine has improved - and he has indeed improved mightily - he's not on the same level as Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James or Stephen Curry.
That said, there might be a way for LaVine to get the best of both worlds.
The Supermax
If LaVine makes an All-NBA team this year, he will become eligible for the supermax, which allows the Bulls to offer him the full 35% of the cap, despite LaVine not having reached 10 YOS.
With the league's cap expected to come in at $121 million this summer, LaVine could sign a deal starting at $42.35 million, with annual 8% raises off the base salary, or an annual increase of $3.388 million per year.
Based on a cap of a flat $121 million in the summer of 2022, LaVine could sign a five-year contract worth $245.6 million, which is an average of over $49.1 million per year.
Should LaVine's knee troubles keep him out of All-NBA inclusion, he would drop down to the 30% max, in which case he'd be eligible to sign a five-year contract worth $210.5 million. That's over $42.1 million on average.
Both of those numbers represent a significant raise from LaVine's current compensation level of $19.5 million.
For LaVine and Klutch Sports, it makes sense to map out these paths given how much an All-NBA nod can change his overall compensation level. More than likely, LaVine's All-NBA status will determine whether they sign on long-term or short-term, as the goal for LaVine ultimately will be to earn 35% of the cap.
One wrinkle worth mentioning is an increased cap over the next few years.
A new TV-deal is expected to be negotiated and signed in the coming years, which would begin in 2025. LaVine could sign a shorter contract and hit the market at age 30, hoping to cash in on the new TV money.
If the NBA and NBPA do not agree to cap smoothing, the salary cap in 2025 could check in at a whopping $171 million. A five-year contract at 35% of that cap number would land at $347.1 million.
As such, LaVine and his team have their work cut out for them this summer.
