If it’s rare for 5/1 outsiders to come through, it’s even more uncommon in replays.
Still, Kerry’s display last Sunday week was enough to see their odds cut to 10/3 which, given their tradition and pedigree coupled with the fact that they are now undoubtedly the coming force in Gaelic football, will appeal to many.
On second viewing, it is our opinion that their performance in the drawn game has been somewhat overstated.
When Dublin were leading by five points approaching half-time, was there any way back for Kerry without Jonny Cooper’s dismissal? Most unlikely.
Against that, Kerry caused Dublin numerous problems in the first half, during which they might have had three goals and a few extra points, when it was 15 on 15. The red card offered them a reprieve but similar wastefulness this evening will likely be much more costly.
Regardless of published line-ups, we can say with reasonable certainty that there will be changes ahead of throw-in.
Dublin may well tinker with their midfield by moving James McCarthy or Brian Howard alongside Brian Fenton and holding Michael Darragh Macauley in reserve.
Jim Gavin has options to mix up his attack but the case for some of the supporting cast isn’t as compelling now as it was for the 2016 replay.
The reported promotion of Bernard Brogan to the bench having been marginalised all year and the possibility of Diarmuid Connolly, Boston-bound just a few weeks ago, starting suggests that the Dublin manager is scraping the barrel like never before.
Killian Spillane could get the nod for Kerry from the off this time, while if Peter Keane starts Tommy Walsh it will likely require significant, and potentially problematic, reorganisation on Gavin’s part.
Given that Dublin have tended to calmly find a way to win finals over the years, a blitz on Kerry is unlikely. But while both teams have significant scope for improvement, the smart money says that Dublin will find more.
VERDICT: Dublin
If you haven't already, be sure to like our Irish Mirror Sport and Irish Mirror GAA pages on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.
