1) Breakdown
Sam Warburton and Maro Itoje will give the Lions not only greater ball-winning capacity at the breakdown, more opportunity to slow down New Zealand’s ball and will put the scrum-half Aaron Smith under pressure. So far this tour, the Lions have looked to fracture their opponents’ supply line by rushing up in defence in midfield but the All Blacks neutralised that ploy in the first Test by playing through nine rather than 10 and creating space around the ruck. The Lions will need to generate quick ball and Alun Wyn Jones and Tadhg Furlong must clear out All Blacks on the fringe of rucks with Itoje and Warburton taking care of anyone grappling for possession. It is an area the Lions have to win to have a chance of ending New Zealand’s 16-match winning run in Wellington, which started after a defeat by England in 2003.
2) Attack
The Lions have adopted England’s template of two ball-players at 10 and 12, Johnny Sexton and Owen Farrell as opposed to George Ford and Farrell. The plan’s effectiveness hinges on ball being recycled quickly so that the first receiver has options either side of him to keep the defence from drifting across in a line. A problem for England in this year’s Six Nations, which they still won, was that without Billy Vunipola for the most part they lacked a forward to rampage over the gain line and fragment the defence for Ford and Farrell to exploit. Only against Scotland did they cut loose and their grand slam bid failed in Ireland when they could not make anything of ball that was slowed down. New Zealand will be more concerned with imposing their game on the Lions than stopping their opponents: they have been given an invitation to play wider than they did in Auckland – but will they take it? By including their best two passers in the midfield, the Lions are looking to iron out the wrinkles in their finishing that has troubled them this tour and they will have the scope to attack from broken play and from set pieces against opponents who have only failed to reach 30 points four times in 16 matches since winning the World Cup, twice hitting 29 and always passing 20.
3) Kicking
The selection of Sexton and Farrell broadens the Lions’ attack and gives them an extra kicking option. The kicking strategy last weekend extended little beyond Conor Murray’s hanging box-kicks, which caused New Zealand problems – but only at first. Farrell, perhaps because of the thigh injury he had picked up the previous week, kicked rarely and the Lions became adrift tactically, lacking a territorial toehold. The Lions will not be attacking for the sake of it but scenting opportunity and mixing up their game. New Zealand’s tries tend to come from movements that involve few phases: their three in Auckland were all contained in one and if they fail to make headway, they often kick and wait to go again, patient and watchful. They do not get lost in space and the Lions will have to match that awareness, knowing when to run and when to kick. And come armed with deceit.
Key clashes
Waisake Naholo v Elliot Daly
Naholo is more explosive but both have shown on this tour what they can do with ball in hand. For differing reasons, neither is particularly strong defensively though so this battle is sure to be lively.
Beauden Barrett v Johnny Sexton
All eyes are on Sexton to see if he can find his best form when the Lions most need him. Barrett was quietly flawless in the first Test, moving to fullback early, but will hope to sparkle at his home ground.
Brodie Retallick v Maro Itoje
The Lions had no answer to Retallick in Auckland but Warren Gatland hopes Itoje is the solution. He will run the lineout – some feat for a 22-year-old – and bring added dynamism. Has risen to every challenge in his career so far and the Lions need him to do so again.
Number of the day
33 – number of points scored by Dan Carter in the Lions’ last Test in Wellington. Two tries, four conversions and five penalties contributed to the highest ever personal haul against the Lions in a 48-18 win.
Referee
Jérôme Garcès: The Frenchman was in charge for the Lions’ 34-6 win over the Chiefs – their biggest of the tour so far – and Gatland’s side will be hoping to get on his side at scrum-time. If and how Garcès protects Conor Murray will be closely scrutinised.
New Zealand’s last three matches in Wellington
New Zealand 29-9 Australia, 27 August 2016
Israel Dagg scores two tries before half-time with Julian Savea and Sam Cane crossing after the break to seal the Bledisloe Cup for the All Blacks for the 14th year in a row. Australia manage just three penalties.
New Zealand 36-22 Wales, 18 June 2016
Had Taulupe Faletau held Sam Warburton’s pass early in the second half with the scores tied things may have been different but Beauden Barrett proceeds to shred the Wales defence after coming off the bench.
New Zealand 14-10 South Africa, 13 September 2014
Richie McCaw scores the All Blacks’ only try in a tense victory after Cornal Hendricks’ first-half effort had nosed the Springboks in front. It is a 36th home win on the spin for New Zealand.
