Liverpool are sweating on the fitness of Alisson Becker ahead of the clash with Arsenal tonight.
The Brazilian goalkeeper is deemed to be one of the best around having drastically improved Liverpool 's defensive game since moving from AS Roma in the summer of 2018, but faces a late fitness test to face the Gunners.
Should Alisson miss out, Jurgen Klopp will turn to Adrian to fill in again, as the Spaniard has done on a number of occasions since arriving at Anfield in the summer of 2019.
So how big of a miss is Alisson, and is Adrian capable of covering his absence? Lets take a look at the numbers.
Expected Goals (xG) offers an insight into the likelihood of a shot being scored by considering aspects such as difficulty and location, and it tends to provide an accurate summary of whether a team deserved fewer or more goals based on their shots.
Post-shot xG can be applied to goalkeepers as it specifically focuses on shots that hit the target and takes into account the quality and trajectory of the shot, thus relating to shot-stopping.
Alisson has been expected to concede 72.8 goals in the Champions League and Premier League for the Reds but he's actually shipped just 62 (excluding own goals). That essentially means he saved shots to an above average standard, overperforming his expected figures by 10.8 goals.
Adrian, on the other hand, has been expected to concede 15.4 goals yet he allowed 18 to be scored (excluding own goals); he's underperformed his expected figures by 2.6 goals which means he's performed to a slightly below average standard when it comes to stopping shots.
Alisson has faced a total of 253 shots on target in those two competitions, saving 193 of them which leaves an impressive save percentage of 75.9%.
To compare, Adrian has faced 43 shots on target with 25 of those saved, which equates to a save percentage of just 58.1%.
For context, the worst starting goalkeeper in the Premier League last season was Kepa Arrizabalaga who posted a save percentage of just 54.5%, but the next-worst was Jordan Pickford on 63.4%.
Ultimately, Adrian shouldn't be expected to compete with the likes of Alisson, Kepa and Pickford considering his role in Liverpool's squad but when Klopp primary no.1 is absent, it's reasonable to suggest that the difference is quite stark.
The 33 year-old is appreciated as a strong character in the squad and he did contribute a great deal to Liverpool's lifting of the Super Cup last year after beating Chelsea on penalties, but Alisson is a cut above.
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