HARTFORD, Conn. — We knew Paige Bueckers was going to be really good coming into UConn.
We saw Paige Bueckers be really good in her first nine games.
But the Paige Bueckers we’ve seen over the last three contests? She’s been nothing short of sensational.
After missing a game due to an ankle injury she suffered at Tennessee, Bueckers has put together one of the most impressive stretches for any freshman, and arguably any player, in recent UConn memory.
The freshman phenom has dropped 20-plus points in each of the last three games, two of which were against ranked opponents, and has done so at an incredibly efficient rate. She’s set a new career high in scoring in two of the last three games, and Wednesday against St. John’s scored the most points in a game for a UConn freshman since Tina Charles put up 34 in February 2007.
What’s worked so well for Bueckers these last few games, and can she keep it up? Here’s a closer look at Bueckers’ last two weeks:
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UConn coach Geno Auriemma has pestered Bueckers to be less “pass-happy” and shoot more since the beginning of the season. But it’s taken some time for Bueckers, who prides herself on being a pass-first point guard, to come around to that.
The Huskies’ close game at Tennessee and loss at Arkansas may have been what Bueckers needed to fully internalize Auriemma’s message.
Before hitting the dagger with 24 seconds left in the Tennessee game, Bueckers struggled with her shot the whole night, and only took four shots in the entire first half. Against Arkansas, Bueckers finished with 27 points on 67% shooting, but 11 of her 15 shots were in the second half as UConn tried to erase a double-digit deficit.
But against both DePaul and St. John’s, Bueckers put up six shots alone in the second quarter — the first time she’s tried that many in a quarter in the first half this season. She got involved early, and against St. John’s in particular kept her foot on the gas. Having to shoulder more of the offensive load with Christyn Williams out, Bueckers had 18 points at the half and 29 by the end of the third. Her eight shot attempts in the third were her season-high for any quarter of play so far this season.
All the while, she’s kept her assist numbers high, dishing out 12 against DePaul for her first-career double-double and seven against St. John’s.
“I think sometimes when you’re a freshman, you psych yourself up for a big, big game on the road,” Auriemma said. “And then a couple shots don’t go in early and you put a little more pressure on yourself to make a bunch, and then it just kind of gets away from you a little. I think she was disappointed for the Tennessee game that she waited so long in the game to get going. She mentioned the same thing in the Arkansas game, that she waited too long for her to really go — not wait for the game to come to her but go after the game. Since then, I think she’s been much more ‘take advantage of the advantages that are out there.’”
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What’s notable about Bueckers’ recent stretch is that she’s not only shooting early and often, but that she’s making shots at an ridiculously efficient rate.
Since returning from her ankle injury, Bueckers is 31 of 50 from the floor (62%) and 13 of 16 on 3s. You read that right: 13 of 16. That’s 81%. Those numbers were bolstered by her 13-for-20 (5 of 6 on 3s) outing Wednesday, which per Her Hoop Stats was the most efficient 30-plus-point game by a freshman this season.
In her 12 games, she’s shooting more efficiently on 3s (58.3%) than twos (55.4%).
As a frame of reference, in Bueckers’ previous nine games, her percentages were 54% and 47%, respectively — even if her recent efficiency cools off some, her “normal” is still very good. Bueckers’ “worst” games were shooting 40% in two and a career-low 21% against Tennessee — perhaps a product of nerves as Auriemma suggested or of Tennessee’s length.
Bueckers will certainly be tested going up against South Carolina’s defense Monday and other better teams come March. She’ll likely not have to shoot 60% for UConn to win, but Auriemma will no doubt lean on her to be aggressive from the jump (and make her shots) against elevated competition and with higher stakes involved.
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Bueckers is averaging a team-high 19.6 points per game. She’s on track to become the third freshman to lead the team in scoring in the Auriemma era, following in the footsteps of Maya Moore (2007-08) and Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis (2011-12). She is second in scoring among freshmen nationwide, trailing only Iowa’s Caitlin Clark (25.3 points per game), and 36th overall in the country.
It’s hard to put Bueckers’ 12 games in context amid a shortened season. But if Bueckers keeps up at this rate, or even if she drops off to more reasonable levels, she appears well on her way to putting together one of the most successful freshman campaigns in UConn history.
One thing is certain: Other UConn teams didn’t necessarily need their budding superstars to be “on” every night as freshmen. Auriemma didn’t necessarily need to beg his other freshmen to shoot more, or have them play 35-plus minutes.
But this UConn team — which has seven freshmen, upperclassmen still working to establish their consistency, and sophomores who are banged up — needs Bueckers. For better or for worse, her continued growth and ability to elevate in big moments will undoubtedly determine in large part the ceiling of this year’s squad.
