The analysts of the ECB are unlikely to dwell upon extraneous detail when delivering their résumé of the likely playing conditions at Kingsmead, Durban, the venue for the first Test on Boxing Day. They may not, for example, mention the timeless Test of 1939, which ended after 10 days of play as a draw – by mutual agreement. England, 654 for five, needed another 42 runs for a famous victory but the boat home was leaving.
However, if the England party is feeling at all overawed at the task ahead – against the No1 Test team in the world – the analysts just might toss in a bit of history, which suggests that England tend to do well in Durban. They have played 15 Tests there and lost once, and that was in 1928.
They have been victorious on five occasions, the last of which was in 2009 when they won by an innings in what the captain Andrew Strauss then described as the best performance he had seen by any England team on tour.
In the post-apartheid era England have played four Tests at Kingsmead, which nestles in the middle of the city and is less than half a mile from the ocean. In 1995 it rained so hard that the locals were advised to move cattle to higher ground; in 1999 Nasser Hussain rained on the parade, scoring 146 from 463 balls before Gary Kirsten batted even longer for 275 to save the game. In 2004 England were rescued by three left-handed centurions in the second innings, Marcus Trescothick, Graham Thorpe and Strauss. And last time there was the perfect victory with Graeme Swann capturing nine wickets in the match.
There lies the evidence that South Africa struggle against England in Durban. Kingsmead does not provide the paciest pitch in South Africa – that accolade belongs to the Wanderers in Johannesburg – but with a touch of sea fret and the wind in the right direction the ball can swing deviously.
However, when the sun comes out and the juice in the pitch disappears bowlers can toil for hours on end, as witnessed by Norman Gordon, the South African fast bowler in 1939 (1 for 174 in the second innings), Phil Tufnell (0 for 117 in 1999), Nicky Boje (1 for 163 in 2004) and Makhaya Ntini (0 for 114 in his last Test in 2009).
The bowlers of both sides had better celebrate Christmas discreetly. If the ball starts to move in the air or off the pitch they must grab their chance because these conditions are unlikely to last for the entire game. Perhaps the ball has deviated more often in recent times or perhaps batsmen have abandoned the thought of 10-hour vigils. None of the last eight Tests in Durban have been drawn.
Trevor Bayliss will, no doubt, study the evidence but he seldom seems greatly bothered by anything. Yet he will surely have more concerns about who is going to score the runs rather than take the wickets for England.
The pace attack has been reinforced by Steven Finn. He was welcomed to Africa enthusiastically by all squad members but Chris Jordan and Mark Footitt must also have recognised that Finn’s arrival significantly reduces the likelihood of their having a role in the series if everyone stays fit. Upon England’s bench at Kingsmead there will no fewer than three fast bowlers.
The depth of the batting is not so obvious. Out of the top seven only Alastair Cook has played a Test in South Africa – he hit a century in Durban last time. This highlights two things: how sporadically England tour here compared with other, more lucrative parts of the cricketing globe and how relatively callow is the current England lineup. Joe Root, at the ripe old age of 24, is Cook’s vice-captain and his only batting banker. Of the rest only Gary Ballance averages more than 32 in Test cricket and he is by no means certain to be selected for the first Test.
It is a bit of an oddity that England will have three fast bowlers at Durban but just one batsman on the bench. Three out of Alex Hales, Nick Compton, James Taylor and Ballance will play along with Jonny Bairstow, who has kept wicket in three of his 20 Tests.
Hales has almost been guaranteed his place in the first Test team. We know that is the intention but there is still a nasty scenario, incorporating two failures in the next game in Pietermaritzburg, which could lead to a change of heart.
It is probably better for Hales to score eight in three balls rather than the 42 balls he took in the second innings in Potchefstroom. He does not want to provide too much evidence of being out of form. The opener is a streaky player, which can be a euphemism for someone who is liable to a long run of failures when his confidence is low.
Taylor has impressed again this winter. He has demonstrated a steely temperament as well as an ability to score runs against spinners on low-bouncing tracks in the UAE and it would also be a surprise if he was the batsman omitted.
Technically, the challenge that faces him is rather different now with the ball bouncing more steeply in South Africa, especially when Morne Morkel is bowling. For this reason England will be reluctant to bat Taylor higher than No5. He seldom bats higher than four for Nottinghamshire and there will be a reason for that.
Establishing the best batting lineup will preoccupy the selectors more than anything else. It would be surprising if the batsmen do not all get a game from the four Tests, which will be a stern examination of England’s regeneration. They will do well to draw the series.
