The Canadian state of Alberta is set to hold a non binding referendum on whether to separate from the country after a group submitted hundreds of thousands of signatures with that goal.
The announcement was made by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and marks the first time in the country's history in which a province different than Quebec seeks to break from Canada.
Smith said she supports remaining in Canada but will hold the vote because she is "deeply troubled by an erroneous court decision that interferes with the democratic rights of hundreds of thousands of Albertans." She was making reference to the fact that a local judge had rejected a petition to that end.
Members of the group spearheading the initiative, called Stay Free Alberta, had said earlier this month that it submitted over 300,000 signatures to trigger the referendum, above the 178,000 needed for the province to consider calling for such a vote.
However, even if the vote is passed, Alberta would not be independent automatically: there would have to be a negotiation with the federal government. And an Edmonton judge is set to rule on a challenge claiming that a separation would violate treaty rights.
The Alberta independence movement, long marginal in Canadian politics, has gained renewed visibility in recent years amid debates over energy policy and federal-provincial relations.
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, told the outlet that he believes the referendum has a slim chance of passing. "Right now, support for independence in Alberta is rather low. Less than 30% and much lower if we only focus on hard core supporters. And the odds of a victory of the pro-independence camp appear to be low at this stage," he said.
"Mark Carney is indeed popular, even in Alberta. The push for independence by some Albertans predates his prime ministership and it's related to economic, fiscal, and political grievances about the seemingly unfair treatment of Alberta by the federal government," he added. "These concerns increased during the Justin Trudeau years but they have peaked and even declined since he left office."
Canadian concerns about external influence have been amplified by rhetoric surrounding the separatist movement. "We're seeing evidence of foreign interference," said Gil McGowan, president of the Alberta Federation of Labour earlier this year, pointing to online campaigns and political messaging linked to U.S. actors. "It doesn't feel organic, we are being targeted by the MAGA crowd."
