Australia’s centre-left Labor Party, led by the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, is projected to win the federal election against the conservative opposition, according to early vote counting analysis by Sky News Australia and the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC).
Both broadcasters indicated that the Liberal and National coalition was unlikely to secure enough seats to form a government.
ABC election analyst Antony Green went further, declaring a Labor victory.
Key voter concerns during the campaign included cost of living pressures and anxieties surrounding US president Donald Trump’s policies.
While cautious about claiming outright victory, defence minister Richard Marles expressed optimism to broadcaster 7Network, stating that early results were encouraging and that a Labor majority government “remains a possibility and it is what we are trying to achieve”.
Polls closed at 6pm (0800 GMT) in Australia’s most populous eastern time zone, while voting in Western Australia, home to the city of Perth, ended at 1000 GMT.
Labor HQ erupts as ABC's Antony Green calls the election for Anthony Albanese. People are hugging, crying, laughing - chants of "Albo, Albo, Albo" pic.twitter.com/5nimwBbojq
— Josh Butler (@JoshButler) May 3, 2025
Opinion polls had shown Labor ahead, after trailing in the polls as recently as February to Peter Dutton’s conservative coalition.
As counting got underway, treasurer Jim Chalmers said the Labor government had been “in all sorts of trouble” at the end of 2024 but got back into the contest because of Mr Albanese’s strong campaign performance, policies that addressed concerns about the cost of living and the Trump effect.
“The economy became a positive from a negative – the interest rate cut was part of the story,” he told ABC.
The central bank cut rates in February, on the eve of the election being called, reversing course after 13 interest rate rises that had ratcheted up home mortgage repayments for households.
“The sense of the influence of American politics” had also helped, Mr Chalmers added.
Opposition Liberal Party spokesperson, Senator James Paterson, defended the conservative campaign, which he also said was negatively affected by “the Trump factor”.
“It was devastating in Canada for the conservatives ... I think it has been a factor here, just how big a factor will be determined in a few hours’ time,” he told ABC.
The expected bounce in the centre-left Labor Party’s fortunes mirrors those of Canada’s Liberal Party, which returned to power this week in a come-from-behind victory after Mr Trump’s tariffs and remarks on Canadian sovereignty sparked a backlash from voters.
Preferences among supporters of Australia’s minor parties and independents could be crucial under the country’s ranked-choice voting system.
In the 2022 election, the primary vote split almost equally among Labor, the Liberal-Nationals, and “others”. Analysts predicted a third of voters would again opt for independents and minor parties in Saturday’s election.
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