Floods, fires and COVID-19 may have pushed country kids out of school at the same time as young people turn away from employment and higher education, raising concerns about the rural workforce.
The school non-attendance rate in regional Australia was 14.6 per cent in 2024, well above pre-pandemic levels of 10.6 per cent in 2019.
This has been flagged as a "significant gap" in a landmark Jobs and Skills Australia report examining the future workforce in the bush, as school attendance is an early indicator of barriers to employment.
While there has been a longstanding gap in school attendance between the country and the cities, the disparity was worsening in the aftermath of pandemic lockdowns and rolling natural disasters.
"The barriers for student absence from school are often complex, interrelated and often specific to the student, family, school and community involved," said the report, released on Thursday.
There was also a steep and rapid increase in the proportion of people aged between 18 and 24 not in education, employment or training.
The rate of disengaged youth went from 12.2 per cent in 2023 to 15.3 per cent in 2024.
It means many are at risk of failing to transition from school to higher education and employment, possibly due to barriers such as financial difficulties and poorer access to childcare, housing and public transport.
"The substantial gap highlights the additional support that is required for youth in regional Australia to overcome barriers and move towards participating in education, training and employment," the report said.
Regional Australia has its highest ever rate of people aged 25 to 54 in the workforce, sitting at more than 85 per cent, but young people needed better support.
"If that younger group of people about to enter the prime workforce ... is becoming less engaged in both employment and education, we're looking at a risk to maintaining that level of participation and productivity as a result," Jobs and Skills Australia commissioner Barney Glover said.
About one in six young people in regional Australia have disengaged from employment and education, compared to one in 10 in the cities.
Worker recruitment remains one of the key challenges in the bush, with almost one in 10 essential jobs sitting vacant.
The report set out a road map for change, recommending high school students in the regions have greater exposure to careers education and pathways.
Where a lack of motivation or aspiration is a barrier, usually seen in cases of intergenerational disadvantage, students could be part of a program that links them with multiple local employers.
There should also be greater co-operation between the higher education and vocational sectors, while improvements to visa settings and skills accreditation for migrant workers could ease labour shortages, the report said.
