Kalen DeBoer’s first season in Tuscaloosa got off to a rocky start, but it wasn’t until Week 13 that he truly started to feel the full heat from the Alabama fan base. Even after losses to plucky Vanderbilt and rival Tennessee by a total of 12 points, the Crimson Tide were in solid position to make the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff ... and then they traveled to Norman, Okla. and got blasted by an Oklahoma team that would finish under .500 in its first SEC season.
The 24–3 loss ultimately doomed the Crimson Tide, who were one at-large spot outside of the playoff, finishing behind ACC runner-up SMU and jumped by surprising Big 12 and ACC champions Arizona State and Clemson. Fast-forward 51 Saturdays, and both teams find themselves in better positions. Alabama has overcome a bad Week 1 loss to Florida State and is currently ranked No. 4 by the CFP selection committee. This year, the top four teams in the final ranking will receive first-round byes, regardless of conference champion status.
Sooners coach Brent Venables has had a nice rebound season as well, and at 7–2 and No. 11 in the country, Oklahoma remains in the CFP mix as well, though losses to Ole Miss and Texas have them up against the ropes. Another big win over Alabama, however, and OU may find themselves in the field yet.
Let’s take a look at how the game impacts both teams’ playoff hopes.
How Alabama and Oklahoma match up
Alabama enters the game with one of the nation’s top passing offenses, led by a Heisman hopeful in Ty Simpson and a slew of impressive pass catchers like Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams. The Tide will contend with Oklahoma’s SEC-best defense, which will look to make the Crimson Tide one-dimensional. Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb’s offense has struggled to get much going on the ground, averaging just over 111 yards per game and just 3.5 yards per carry as a team. They haven’t managed better than 3.8 yards per carry against any Power 4 opponent this season, while Oklahoma has only allowed more than four yards per carry against one P4 program this year, Michigan. Alabama’s offensive line runs the risk of being smothered by Kip Lewis, R Mason Thomas and the rest of Brent Venables’s talented front. If Thomas, who is questionable with an injury, can’t go, it would be a major boon for the Tide.
The running game on the other side of the ball may decide the game. Alabama’s defense is very good against the pass, but vulnerable to a solid rushing attack. OU struggled to move the ball on the ground early in the year but that part of the offense has rounded into form. Xavier Robinson has topped 100 yards in each of the last two weeks and has been very explosive, while John Mateer looked more like himself, rushing for 80 yards and a touchdown in the Sooners’ win over Tennessee. He still hasn’t passed the ball well since his return from hand surgery, but coming off of a bye week, this will likely be the healthiest Mateer has been since that mid-season injury. He’ll need to prove that he can take the top off of the Crimson Tide defense to prevent them from keying in on the run.
How an Alabama win would impact their playoff chances
A win over Oklahoma makes it extremely likely that Alabama reaches the CFP, and likely as a top-four seed. The Crimson Tide face FCS squad Eastern Illinois next week before finishing against an Auburn team that is currently 4–6 and just 1–6 in SEC play. No one should ever look past the Iron Bowl, of course. The Tigers will be playing for pride, and have lost five of their six SEC games by a single score including games vs. Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri and Vanderbilt. Still, Alabama will be heavily favored in that game, and may even be able to afford a loss if it beats Oklahoma.
Always take playoff predictors with a grain of salt, but with a win vs. the Sooners, ESPN’s playoff predictor—which uses its Football Power Index—gives the Crimson Tide a 99% chance to make the field even if they go on to lose to Auburn and miss the SEC championship game. (Reaching the conference title but losing and taking a third loss actually hurts Alabama, dropping them to 97% in the model.)
Alabama’s 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 12 College Football Playoff 25.
How an Oklahoma win would impact their playoff chances
As has been the case since their tight loss to Ole Miss, Oklahoma is walking the high wire. A win over Alabama keeps the Sooners alive, and gives them their best win of the year (to add to a solid résumé that includes wins over Michigan and Tennessee). Even so, with two losses already on their tally, the work isn’t done. Games against Missouri and LSU are far less imposing than they looked earlier this year, when LSU fancied itself a playoff contender and had a head coach and before injuries blew up Mizzou’s quarterback room.
With just one loss and two manageable games coming up, Ole Miss’s situation probably won’t impact Oklahoma’s going forward. The Sooners’ head-to-head blowout loss to Texas could wind up playing a huge part in OU’s playoff candidacy down the road, if the two teams are jostling for the final at-large spots in the field. The Longhorns are currently ranked one spot ahead of Oklahoma at No. 10.
Venables’s team still needs to be focused on winning out at all costs.
Oklahoma’s 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 12 College Football Playoff 25.
Sports Illustrated's postseason projections for Alabama, Oklahoma
Pat Forde has Alabama in the same spot as the CFP selection committee after Week 11—at No. 4., and in line to face the winner of No. 5 Georgia and No. 12 South Florida at the Cotton Bowl. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is just outside Forde’s current 12-team field as one of his bubble teams.
In his latest forward-looking projection, Bryan Fischer has the Crimson Tide jumping up to No. 2, presumably with an SEC championship under their belt. He has DeBoer’s program facing the No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Georgia Tech winner at the Sugar Bowl.
Fischer has the Sooners ultimately missing the playoff, and he projects them to make the Gator Bowl against Louisville.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Alabama vs. Oklahoma: How Game Impacts College Football Playoff Race for Both Programs.
