Alabama vs Notre Dame: Rose Bowl Game Bowl presented by Capital One prediction and game preview.
Alabama vs Notre Dame: Rose Bowl Game presented by Capital One Broadcast
Date: Friday, January 1
Game Time: 5:00 pm ET
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Network: ESPN
– All of the CFN Fearless Predictions
Alabama (11-0) vs Notre Dame (10-1) Game Preview
For latest lines and to bet on the NFL, go to BetMGM
Three Reasons Why You Should Watch The Rose Bowl Game
– It’s not the College Football Playoff semifinal as expected. It’s the Rose Bowl, but it’s not in Pasadena – moved because families and fans wouldn’t be allowed to see the game in California – so instead of being held in one of the most iconic settings in all of sports on New Year’s Day, it’s in the glass and glitz of AT&T Stadium.
That’s okay. Let’s be honest here – the Rose Bowl is best when it’s Big Ten vs. Pac-12, anyway. But this is the Rose Bowl Game presented by Capital One, and it’s a College Football Playoff semifinal between Notre Dame and Alabama.
There are a whole lot of big things happening there.
It’s a big matchup in a big stadium with a big bowl name with a lot of words in one of the biggest of games. Everything about this game is a big deal – including the spread, but more on that later.
It’s the eighth all-time meeting between two iconic programs with the Irish holding a 6-2 advantage.
– The Irish rolled through the regular season on the way to the ACC Championship, and they’re a lot better than they looked in the rough 34-10 loss to Clemson. They have the lines, the running game, and a veteran QB in Ian Book who won’t get rattled in the big game spotlight.
It might be the College Football Playoff, but there’s about as little pressure as reasonably possible on the Irish – all that is on the other side of the field. They’re not supposed to win this game, and they’re not even supposed to make this close – and they brought the attitude of a totally disrespected team to Arlington.
Notre Dame is on a decent bowl run, winning four of the last six and six of the last ten after going from the 1995 Fiesta to the 2007 Sugar losing nine straight.
– Alabama has the high-powered offense that averages 550 yards per game, it has three Heisman-caliber superstars in QB Mac Jones, WR DeVonta Smith, and RB Najee Harris, and it has the potential to make it five national championship appearances in six seasons with a win.
The Crimson Tide are 7-2 in their last nine post-season games – both of those losses were national championships. Ever since losing the 2009 Sugar Bowl to Utah, Nick Saban is 12-4 in bowl/playoff games with five national titles during the run, including a 42-14 wipeout of Notre Dame in the 2013 BCS National Championship.
– Why Alabama Will Win The Rose Bowl Game
– Why Notre Dame Will Win The Rose Bowl Game
– What’s Going to Happen, Prediction, History
NEXT: Why Alabama Will Win, Why Notre Dame Will Win, Alabama vs Notre Dame Prediction
Why Alabama Will Win The Rose Bowl Game
– Can Notre Dame handle the firepower? Even in the Trevor Lawrence-less win over Clemson back in early November, the Irish were hit for 439 passing yards from DJ Uiagalelei and needed overtime late to get by. The secondary hasn’t faced a whole lot of big passing teams, but it allowed over 200 yards through the air six times and over 300 in both games against Clemson.
If it was easy as covering DeVonta Smith, everyone would’ve done it – he has 98 catches for 1,511 yards and 17 touchdowns in just 11 games. The Irish secondary couldn’t handle the Clemson receivers, and now it has to deal with Smith, John Metchie, and the other parts of the passing game puzzle. And then there’s …
– Najee Harris. QB Mac Jones and Smith are the Heisman finalists, but Harris is the unsung – at least by the Heisman types – main man who makes this thing go. It’s not as exciting to pound for yards as it is to hit Smith with a 65-yard touchdown pass, but it all gets set up by the ground game from the veteran who averages close to six yards per carry and scored 24 times.
The Irish run D has been great all year, and then it gave up well over 200 rushing yards against Syracuse and Clemson to close things out.
– There can’t be even a blip when dealing with the nation’s most efficient passing game and most dangerous offense, and Notre Dame isn’t going to be air-tight. Part of Bama’s maddening consistency includes its mistakes. You know it’ll get hit with a six penalties, because that’s what it does, and you know it’ll then the ball over once, because that what it did in all 11 games this season. One. One turnover in each game.
On the other side, the defense has been great at forcing mistakes with two or more takeaways seven times. The Irish don’t have a giveaway problem, but if they’re not at least +2 in turnover margin, uh oh.
NEXT: Why Notre Dame Will Win The Rose Bowl Game
Why Notre Dame Will Win The Rose Bowl Game
– The lines really are that good. It might not have looked like it in the Clemson games, but the offensive line held its own – it pounded away for over 200 yards the first time around – and the game got out of hand in the ACC Championship.
Lost in all of the fun in that first matchup was how the Irish run D stopped Travis Etienne. It didn’t totally sell out to force DJ Uiagalelei to try winning the game, but … let’s just say it was focused on No. 9. Now it has to do whatever it can to stop No. 22 and keep Najee Harris from getting into any sort of a groove. Do that, and get pressure on Mac Jones. Of course if it was that easy, everyone would do it, however …
– The North Carolina game might bring Irish fans a little bit of hope. It’s apples to frozen pizzas comparing the Bama and Tar Heel offenses, but the Irish defensive front were able to keep the North Carolina home run-hitting running backs from going off, and it jumped all over QB Sam Howell and never let him get comfortable.
Again, way easier said than done, but focus on slowing down Harris, don’t let Jones get that extra half-click to be able to hang the ball up for Smith to go get it, and keep applying any pressure possible. It worked in Chapel Hill, and it worked enough to at least take away the Clemson running game and get the win the first time around.
– Ian Book, it’s on. The Notre Dame quarterback has seen almost everything and won’t have an issue with the spotlight. Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Mac Jones – there’s one guy among the four starting College Football Playoff quarterbacks who won’t be a first round draft pick, and don’t think he doesn’t fuel up whenever he’s underestimated.
He and the Notre Dame offense can’t match Bama punch-for-punch like Florida did in the SEC Championship, so this will be all about just keeping drives going. Notre Dame was No. 1 in the ACC in both third down stops and third down conversions, and the Alabama defense – as solid as it is – will give up yards, drives, and enough plays to keep the Heisman-caliber guys on the sidelines.
Book is a master at getting the first down, and the Irish are brilliant at making teams play at their pace, holding the ball an average of 34 minutes a game.
NEXT: What’s Going To Happen, Alabama vs Notre Dame Prediction, Rose Bowl History
What’s Going To Happen In The Rose Bowl Game
Notre Dame won’t get knocked out right away.
The lines really are good, there really is enough talent on both sides of the ball to hang around, and Alabama’s defense is just questionable enough to get his for a few first half scoring drives and even a big play or three.
There’s no panic in this Crimson Tide team, though.
Things won’t go quite right. Mac Jones will be pressured, Najee Harris will get bounced around, and the deep ball won’t be there for DeVonta Smith. However, Notre Dame won’t be able to take advantage of the opportunities, it’ll have to settle for a few field goals, and then Jones will find his groove.
He’ll hit the midrange throws, Harris will be used more as a receiver, and then … boom.
John Metchie – who rocked in the wins over Texas A&M and Auburn with two touchdowns in each – will break out. He’ll have a big end of the first half, the Irish defense will struggle early in the second as Bama goes on a quick scoring drive, and then the machine will work with ruthless efficiency.
Alabama will pull away – Notre Dame just doesn’t have that level of talent – but it’ll be more of a grind than expected until late.
Rose Bowl Game: Alabama vs Notre Dame Prediction, Line
Alabama 44, Notre Dame 23
Bet on Alabama vs Notre Dame with BetMGM
Alabama -20, o/u: 65.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
– CFN Experts Picks: Rose Bowl Game
Must See Rating: 5
5: New Year’s Day on the couch
1: New Year’s Eve going out
Rose Bowl History
Jan. 1, 2020 Oregon 28, Wisconsin 27
Jan. 1, 2019 Ohio State 28, Washington 23
Jan. 1, 2018 Georgia 54, Oklahoma 48 OT
Jan. 2, 2017 USC 52, Penn State 49
Jan. 1, 2016 Stanford 45 Iowa 16
Jan. 1, 2015 Oregon 59 Florida State 20
Jan. 1, 2014 Michigan State 24 Stanford 20
Jan. 1, 2013 Stanford 20 Wisconsin 14
Jan. 2, 2012 Oregon 45 Wisconsin 38
Jan. 1, 2011 TCU 21 Wisconsin 19
Jan. 1, 2010 Ohio State 26 Oregon 17
Jan. 1, 2009 USC 38 Penn State 24
Jan. 1, 2008 USC 49 Illinois 17
Jan. 1, 2007 USC 32 Michigan 18
Jan. 4, 2006 Texas 41 USC 38
Jan. 1, 2005 Texas 38 Michigan 37
Jan. 1, 2004 USC 28 Michigan 14
Jan. 1, 2003 Oklahoma 34 Washington State 14
Jan. 3, 2002 Miami 37 Nebraska 14
Jan. 1, 2001 Washington 34 Purdue 24
Jan. 1, 2000 Wisconsin 17 Stanford 9
Jan. 1, 1999 Wisconsin 38 UCLA 31
Jan. 1, 1998 Michigan 21 Washington State 16
Jan. 1, 1997 Ohio State 20 Arizona State 17
Jan. 1, 1996 USC 41 Northwestern 32
Jan. 2, 1995 Penn State 38 Oregon 20
Jan. 1, 1994 Wisconsin 21 UCLA 16
Jan. 1, 1993 Michigan 38 Washington 31
Jan. 1, 1992 Washington 34 Michigan 14
Jan. 1, 1991 Washington 46 Iowa 34
Jan. 1, 1990 USC 17 Michigan 10
Jan. 2, 1989 Michigan 22 USC 14
Jan. 1, 1988 Michigan State 20 USC 17
Jan. 1, 1987 Arizona State 22 Michigan 15
Jan. 1, 1986 UCLA 45 Iowa 28
Jan. 1, 1985 USC 20 Ohio State 17
Jan. 2, 1984 UCLA 45 Illinois 9
Jan. 1, 1983 UCLA 24 Michigan 14
Jan. 1, 1982 Washington 28 Iowa 0
Jan. 1, 1981 Michigan 23 Washington 6
Jan. 1, 1980 USC 17 Ohio State 16
Jan. 1, 1979 USC 17 Michigan 10
Jan. 2, 1978 Washington 27 Michigan 20
Jan. 1, 1977 USC 14 Michigan 6
Jan. 1, 1976 UCLA 23 Ohio State 10
Jan. 1, 1975 USC 18 Ohio State 17
Jan. 1, 1974 Ohio State 42 USC 21
Jan. 1, 1973 USC 42 Ohio State 17
Jan. 1, 1972 Stanford 13 Michigan 12
Jan. 1, 1971 Stanford 27 Ohio State 17
Jan. 1, 1970 USC 10 Michigan 3
Jan. 1, 1969 Ohio State 27 USC 16
Jan. 1, 1968 USC 14 Indiana 3
Jan. 2, 1967 Purdue 14 USC 13
Jan. 1, 1966 UCLA 14 Michigan State 12
Jan. 1, 1965 Michigan 34 Oregon State 7
Jan. 1, 1964 Illinois 17 Washington 7
Jan. 1, 1963 USC 42 Wisconsin 37
Jan. 2, 1962 Minnesota 21 UCLA 3
Jan. 2, 1961 Washington 17 Minnesota 7
Jan. 1, 1960 Washington 44 Wisconsin 8
Jan. 1, 1959 Iowa 38 California 12
Jan. 1, 1958 Ohio State 10 Oregon 7
Jan. 1, 1957 Iowa 35 Oregon State 19
Jan. 2, 1956 Michigan State 17 UCLA 14
Jan. 1, 1955 Ohio State 20 USC 7
Jan. 1, 1954 Michigan State 28 UCLA 20
Jan. 1, 1953 USC 7 Wisconsin 0
Jan. 1, 1952 Illinois 40 Stanford 7
Jan. 1, 1951 Michigan 14 California 6
Jan. 2, 1950 Ohio State 17 California 14
Jan. 1, 1949 Northwestern 20 California 14
Jan. 1, 1948 Michigan 49 USC 0
Jan. 1, 1947 Illinois 45 UCLA 14
Jan. 1, 1946 Alabama 34 USC 14
Jan. 1, 1945 USC 25 Tennessee 0
Jan. 1, 1944 USC 29 Washington 0
Jan. 1, 1943 Georgia 9 UCLA 0
Jan. 1, 1942 Oregon State 20 Duke 16
Jan. 1, 1941 Stanford 21 Nebraska 13
Jan. 1, 1940 USC 14 Tennessee 0
Jan. 2, 1939 USC 7 Duke 3
Jan. 1, 1938 California 13 Alabama 0
Jan. 1, 1937 Pittsburgh 21 Washington 0
Jan. 1, 1936 Stanford 7 SMU 0
Jan. 1, 1935 Alabama 29 Stanford 13
Jan. 1, 1934 Columbia 7 Stanford 0
Jan. 2, 1933 USC 35 Pittsburgh 0
Jan. 1, 1932 USC 21 Tulane 12
Jan. 1, 1931 Alabama 24 Washington State 0
Jan. 1, 1930 USC 47 Pittsburgh 14
Jan. 1, 1929 Georgia Tech 8 California 7
Jan. 2, 1928 Stanford 7 Pittsburgh 6
Jan. 1, 1927 Stanford 7 Alabama 7
Jan. 1, 1926 Alabama 20 Washington 19
Jan. 1, 1925 Notre Dame 27 Stanford 10
Jan. 1, 1924 Washington 14 Navy 14
Jan. 1, 1923 USC 14 Penn State 3
Jan. 2, 1922 California 0 Wash. & Jeff. 0
Jan. 1, 1921 California 28 Ohio State 0
Jan. 1, 1920 Harvard 7 Oregon 6
Jan. 1, 1919 Great Lakes-US Navy 17 Mare Island 0
Jan. 1, 1918 Mare Island-USMC 19 Camp Lewis-US Army 7
Jan. 1, 1917 Oregon 14 Pennsylvania 0
Jan. 1, 1916 Washington State 14 Brown 0
Jan. 1, 1902 Michigan 49 Stanford 0
