Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) shares are trading lower on Thursday after the company warned of a deceleration in growth during the latter half of this year.
The online marketplace for vacation rentals released its second-quarter results on Wednesday. It reported $3.1 billion in revenue, up 13% year-over-year, and ahead of consensus estimates at $3.03 billion. It reported a profit of $1.03 per share, which again beat analyst estimates at 93 cents per share.
Also Read: Airbnb Q2 Earnings: Revenue, EPS Beat Estimates; Stock Repurchase
Airbnb also authorized a new $6 billion stock buyback program, adding to its existing authorizations worth $1.5 billion.
Wall Street analysts rerated the stock after the results.
- Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt maintained Airbnb with a Neutral rating and lowered the price forecast from $135 to $130.
- Needham analyst Bernie McTernan reiterated Airbnb with a Hold rating.
- Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan maintained Airbnb with a Neutral rating, with a price forecast of $137.
Wedbush: Devitt cited a more balanced risk/reward amid softening U.S. travel demand. He noted Airbnb exceeded second-quarter expectations, with nights and experiences booked rising 7.4% Y/Y, and revenue and adjusted EBITDA surpassing estimates by about 2% and 7%, respectively. Devitt expects third-quarter revenue to grow 9.3% Y/Y to $4.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA to reach $2 billion—4% above his prior estimate. For 2025, he raised his gross booking value estimate by 2%, booked nights by 1%, and adjusted the EBITDA margin forecast to 34.9%.
While Devitt acknowledged solid share repurchases and encouraging guidance, he expressed caution due to slowing growth in EMEA and LATAM and ongoing weakness in the U.S., which accounts for a third of Airbnb’s bookings. With shares trading at 28x his revised 2026 EPS estimate, he warned that the current premium valuation may be difficult to sustain in a challenging macro environment.
Needham: McTernan noted that bookings beat his estimates by 4%, with Y/Y growth accelerating from 7% in the first-quarter to 11% in the second-quarter. However, McTernan expects the second quarter to mark the peak for 2025 bookings growth, given tougher comparisons in the second half, especially the fourth quarter. While he slightly raised his adjusted EBITDA estimates for 2025 and 2026, he lowered fourth-quarter expectations due to the challenging comps.
McTernan emphasized that Airbnb may no longer significantly outpace the broader travel industry in core bookings, heightening the importance of new services and experiences. Although management highlighted the early impact of offerings like “Nights & Seats,” he believes that whether these will provide sustained growth or a one-time lift remains unclear. He also noted Airbnb’s growing openness to adding hotels to the platform. Despite margin strength, McTernan expects EBITDA growth to mirror bookings growth, limiting the potential for multiple expansion. As a result, he remains cautious on the stock’s upside potential.
Goldman Sachs: Sheridan noted gross bookings and revenue exceeded his estimates, and adjusted EBITDA was 8% higher. He said that nights booked accelerated from April through July, signaling a rebound in global travel. The analyst acknowledged management’s continued focus on improving Airbnb’s core platform while expanding through new services and experiences, supported by the recent product launch.
Sheridan sees Airbnb pursuing a multi-pronged growth strategy: enhancing its core service, expanding into new geographic markets—where nights booked grew more than twice as fast as core regions—and investing in platform diversification. Management plans to launch one to two new businesses annually, each with the potential to scale to $1 billion in revenue.
Despite near-term margin pressure from these investments, Sheridan expects long-term upside tied to topline reacceleration. For third-quarter 2025, he raised his gross booking value forecast to $22.03 billion and revenue to $4.09 billion. He now expects full-year revenue of $12.12 billion and GAAP EPS of $4.40.
Price Action: Airbnb stock is down 9.82% at $117.58 at last check on Thursday.
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