Aidan O’Brien is having the sort of week that makes champion trainers, thanks to the Group One wins notched by Highland Reel and The Gurkha, not forgetting War Decree’s success in the Group Two Vintage Stakes on Tuesday. The Irishman has already won more prize money in Britain this year than in any previous calendar year and might improve his position again with Sword Fighter (3.10) in Thursday’s Goodwood Cup.
The first thing that needs to be admitted at this point is that Sword Fighter is a three-year-old in a race that is nearly always won by an older horse. Not since Lucky Moon in 1990 has a horse of his age come home in front, though John Dunlop and Willie Carson were achieving a double of sorts that day, having also won with the three-year-old Sergeyevich in 1987. But only a handful of three-year-olds have tried their luck in the past decade or so and Veracity might be called the moral winner in 2007, having been beaten half a length under 1lb overweight. He had previously run second in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot, a race which Sword Fighter won last month.
Aidan O’Brien has won the Queen’s Vase four times in the past seven years, indicative of the extraordinary quantity of young staying talent available to him at his Ballydoyle stable. When he pitches a youngster into a race like this, we may be reasonably hopeful it will not be out of its depth.
My feeling is that the conditions of British races give three-year-olds an advantage against their elders at this time of year, provided they are sufficiently robust to show their best form. Sword Fighter will carry 17lb less than all his rivals here and could make it count. Since his Ascot success, Sword Fighter has followed up by landing the Curragh Cup, making all the running, just as he did in the Queen’s Vase. Those tactics could put him in control of this race and a steady early pace will make life difficult for most of his rivals, who are unlikely to produce much of a turn of foot on this fast surface.
Big Orange, another front-runner, will be a formidable opponent, having won this last year, when, as is also true this time, he warmed up by landing Newmarket’s Princess Of Wales’s Stakes. But the market sees his chance, whereas 7-1 about Sword Fighter looks big.
2.00 Goodwood Fire Fighting and Yalta have given Mark Johnston a couple of winners already at this meeting. Ode To Evening could be the third. Fifth in the Coventry last summer, this chestnut seems to have gone off the boil since then but found his feet once more at Newmarket’s July meeting, winning a valuable handicap on his first try at this 10-furlong trip. The way he kept finding that day suggests there may be more to come and a 6lb rise doesn’t even take him back to his peak rating. His draw isn’t too bad for a prominent racer.
2.35 Goodwood Blue Point was undeniably impressive in victory at Doncaster a fortnight ago but that was only a novice contest which he was fully entitled to win, having been sent off at 30-100. It appears he will be odds-on again here but this Richmond Stakes will take a lot more winning and, at the available odds, it may be more sensible to side with the relatively experienced Mehmas. From the Hannon stable that has won this five times since 2008, he was beaten only by the top-class Caravaggio in the Coventry and has since won Newmarket’s July Stakes, beating Intelligence Cross, who lines up again here.
3.45 Goodwood Ralph Beckett took this last year with Simple Verse, who was on her way to St Leger success, and could follow up with Pamona. Third in the Ribblesdale last year, Pamona seemed to have lost her way but a step up in trip and a switch of stables seemed to turn things around for her, judging by the way she powered home in front in a Listed contest at York last month. Few of these rivals have given so much cause for optimism lately, though California improved to score at Ascot last time and is feared, even though jockey bookings suggest she is the less fancied of John Gosden’s pair.
